Sunday, January 31, 2021

Joe Biden shows his hawkish side on China

 After months of Republican worry that Joe Biden would be lenient on Beijing, the new U.S. president received unexpected praise from a Chinese Big Hawk after less than two weeks in the White House.

“President Biden [and his team] are off to China, ”said Robert O’Brien, Donald Trump’s last national security adviser, at a US Peace Institute event with his successor, Jake Sullivan.

After four years of turbulent policy making, Democrats and Republicans expect a more structured approach under the leadership of Mr. Biden. But experts are watching closely for signs of just how hawkish he will be towards the most important US bilateral relationship.

“The concern about the evolution of Biden’s Chinese policy is very high. This is true in Washington where there are strong concerns about a return to Obama’s approach in the mid-2010s, ”said Eric Sayers, an Asian security expert at the American Enterprise Institute, who said that some in Japan and Taiwan were also nervous.

The White House has said Biden will exercise “patience” in shaping his Chinese policy. But he did provide some clues as to the future direction of the administration’s response to events in Asia and the responses of some of its cabinet candidates during their Senate confirmation hearings.

A clear example is that of Taiwan. Before setting foot in the White House, Mr. Biden invited Hsiao Bi-khim to become the first Taiwanese representative to the United States to attend a presidential inauguration.

Three days later, the State Department warned China to stop trying to intimidate Taiwan after Chinese fighter jets and bombers entered Taiwan’s air defense zone and faked attacks on a door. -American planes nearby.

During his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Mr. Trump was right to be tougher on China. He later admitted that the Chinese crackdown on Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang was “genocide”.

At the US Peace Institute, Sullivan said Biden would work with allies on China. But he said he was prepared to “impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, what it is doing in Hong Kong, for the warmongering and threats it is projecting towards Taiwan.”

The change on Capitol Hill is bipartisan. There are Democrats who don’t want a softer approach

His words were a sign that Biden would be tougher than when he was vice president in the Obama administration, and officials spoke of encouraging Beijing to become a “responsible stakeholder.”

“This assumption that greater economic engagement with China would make it a responsible stakeholder on the world stage has been proven wrong – this era of US policymaking is over,” said Lindsay Gorman, an expert on China to the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“Biden’s expectations of a policy that is ‘gentle on China’ do not correspond to reality given the threats democracies face from authoritarian actors around the world.”

While Mr Biden has taken action that has been welcomed by some hawks, his team has also raised concerns.

During her confirmation hearing, Gina Raimondo, the candidate for the head of the trade department, refused to commit to keeping Huawei, the Chinese manufacturer of telecommunications equipment, on the “list of entities” – which makes very difficult for US companies to export technology to companies. the list.

Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House foreign affairs committee, said it was “remarkable and frankly disturbing” that she did not make a commitment. In the Senate, Marco Rubio and several other Republican hawks from China, including Tom Cotton, also hoisted flags, signaling a possible slowdown upon confirmation.

A former senior official said Mr Biden would face fierce opposition from career bureaucrats if he took a softer approach to China on issues like Huawei, saying there would be “violent disagreement” .

Some critics also sounded the alarm when Mr Biden extended the deadline for a ban – created by the Trump administration – on Americans investing in companies with suspected ties to the Chinese military. But some experts have privately said his team wanted time to clarify a policy that was causing confusion in financial markets and said he was unlikely to reverse course due to pressure from Congress.

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Paul Haenle, former Chinese director of the National Security Council (NSC) under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, said Biden had so far “done it right” on China.

“The Trump administration was right to make a change, but the way they did it was self-defeating, very inconsistent and dispersed,” Haenle said, adding that the new administration would also have to face Congress who advocated a tougher approach from China.

“Change at Capitol Hill is bipartisan. There are Democrats who don’t want a softer approach, ”he said. “The key is to have a smart approach that aligns with American interests.”

Some Democrats fear that John Kerry, the international climate czar and friend of Mr Biden, may push the president to compromise with China to get a climate deal, prompting the former secretary of state to defend himself. “I know some people are worried. Nothing will be diverted from one area to another, ”he said.

This concern has also been alleviated somewhat by the appointment of Kurt Campbell, a Chinese hawk, to coordinate overall Asia policy within the NSC, and the appointment of a cadre of next generation Chinese experts who are considered more belligerent on China, including Laura Rosenberger at the NSC, and Kelly Magsamen and Ely Ratner at the Pentagon.

“A new generation of Asian hands has emerged within the Democratic Party which takes a much more competitive approach in Beijing,” Sayers said. “It is this group that we are now seeing evolving into mid-level jobs in administration and that leaves me encouraged.”

Friday, January 22, 2021

The U.S. Deported The Man Who Would Become China's 'Father of Space Technology' Out of Fear

 America may not have won World War II and landed on the moon later if not for the contributions of a brilliant Chinese scientist named Qian Xuesen. Fearing communist presence after the war, the U.S., however, deported Qian to China, clueless that he would eventually spearhead programs that would target American troops and eventually propel China into space. Born to well-educated parents in 1911, it was evident from an early age that Qian had superior intellect. He graduated at the top of his class at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and won a scholarship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Qian arrived in Boston in 1935. He eventually moved to the California Institute of Technology (CalTech) to study under Hungarian aeronautical engineer Theodore von Karman, one of the field’s most influential at the time. It was in CalTech when Qian became a member of a group of innovators called Suicide Squad, which aimed to build a rocket on campus. They earned their nickname, however, due to botched experiments involving volatile chemicals. Just before World War II, the U.S. military, which had been paying for research into jet propulsion systems, caught wind of the Suicide Squad. In 1943, the Jet Propulsion Lab was established under von Karman -- and Qian was at its core. Qian, a national of the Republic of China (ROC; now Taiwan) -- then a U.S. ally -- was given security clearance to work on classified weapons research. At the end of the war, he was among the world’s leading experts in jet propulsion, even flying to Germany as a lieutenant colonel to gather intelligence from Nazi engineers. Unfortunately, Qian’s American career faltered when Mao Zedong established the communist People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. Chinese nationals were then seen as a threat to the U.S. The FBI accused Qian of being a communist based on a 1938 document, which showed that he had attended a social gathering of the Pasadena Communist Party. He denied being a member, but research proved that he joined the group with JPL co-founder Frank Malina, who was also part of the Suicide Squad. Qian’s membership was more inspired by anti-racism than Marxism, however. For instance, they campaigned against the segregation of the local Pasadena swimming pool. Despite the absence of evidence that he actually spied for the PRC, Qian was put on house arrest for five years. In 1955, President Eisenhower deported him to China. Qian left America by boat with his wife and two U.S.-born children. He vowed never to return again. The scientist arrived as a promising talent in China. However, he was not immediately welcomed into the CCP, since his wife was the daughter of a ROC leader. Qian was admitted to the CCP in 1958, later serving on its Central Committee. In the following years, he oversaw the launch of the first Chinese satellite into space -- and a multitude of other projects that laid the foundations of China’s Lunar Exploration Program. In a slap of irony, a missile program Qian helped develop produced weapons that were fired back at the U.S. These were silkworm missiles fired at Americans in the Gulf War of 1991, as well as the USS Mason by Huti rebels in Yemen in 2016. “So there's this odd circularity. The US expelled this expertise, and it has come back to bite them,” said Fraser Macdonald, author of “Escape from Earth: A Secret History of the Space Rocket,” according to BBC News. Despite the turnaround of his life, Qian reportedly remained fond of the American people. In 2002, Frank Marble, a CalTech colleague, stated that Qian had “lost faith in the American government” but “always had very warm feelings for the American people,” according to The New York Times. Qian died as an accomplished scientist at the age of 98 in Beijing. He has since been revered as a hero in China. 

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Joe Biden’s inauguration speech

 Chief Justice Roberts, Vice President Harris. Speaker Pelosi, Leaders Schumer, McConnell, Vice President Pence, my distinguished guests and my fellow Americans, this is America’s day. This is democracy’s day. A day of history and hope of renewal and resolve through a crucible for the ages. America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge. Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of a cause, the cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people, has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.

We’ve learned again that democracy is precious. Democracy is fragile. At this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed1.


1 Throughout the speech, Biden intersperses the idea that democracy and our system of government has triumphed over threats, while acknowledging that victory isn't final. — Aaron Blake


From now, on this hallowed ground, where just a few days ago, violence sought to shake the Capitol’s very foundation, we come together as one nation, under God, indivisible, to carry out the peaceful transfer of power, as we have for more than two centuries.

As we look ahead in our uniquely American way: restless, bold, optimistic, and set our sights on the nation we can be and we must be.

I thank my predecessors of both parties for their presence2 here today. I thank them from the bottom of my heart. And I know, I know the resilience of our Constitution and the strength, the strength of our nation. As does President Carter, who I spoke with last night, who cannot be with us today, but whom we salute for his lifetime of service.


2 Mike Pence, who succeeded Biden as vice president, attended the inauguration, as did former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. President Trump did not attend, in a major break from the traditional ceremony of transfer of power. — Eugene Scott


I’ve just taken the sacred oath each of those patriots have taken. The oath, first sworn by George Washington. But the American story depends not on any one of us, not on some of us, but on all of us, on we the people who seek a more perfect union.

This is a great nation. We are good people. And over the centuries, through storm and strife, in peace and in war, we've come so far. But we still have far to go. We'll press forward with speed and urgency, for we have much to do in this winter of peril and significant possibilities, much to repair, much to restore, much to heal, much to build, and much to gain.

Few people in our nation’s history have been more challenged or found a time more challenging or difficult than the time we’re in now. A once-in-a-century virus that silently stalks the country. It’s taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II. Millions of jobs have been lost. Hundreds of thousands of businesses closed. A cry for racial justice, some 400 years in the making, moves us. The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.

The cry for survival comes from the planet itself, 3a cry that can’t be any more desperate or any more clear. And now a rise of political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.


3 The Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority in his administration, starting with undoing many of Trump’s environmental decisions via executive order and rejoining the Paris climate accord in his first days in office. — E.S.


To overcome these challenges, to restore the soul and secure the future of America requires so much more than words. It requires the most elusive of all things in a democracy: Unity. Unity.


In another January, on New Year’s Day in 1863, Abraham Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation. When he put pen to paper, the president said, and I quote: “If my name ever goes down into history, it’ll be for this act. And my whole soul is in it.”

My whole soul was in it today. On this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together, uniting our people, uniting our nation. And I ask every American to join me in this cause.

Uniting to fight the foes we face: anger, resentment, hatred, extremism, lawlessness, violence, disease, joblessness and hopelessness. With unity, we can do great things, important things. We can right wrongs. We can put people to work in good jobs. We can teach our children in safe schools. We can overcome the deadly virus. We can reward, reward work, and rebuild the middle class and make health care secure for all. We can deliver racial justice and we can make America once again the leading force for good in the world.

I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy these days. I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real, but I also know they are not new. Our history has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we're all created equal and the harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, demonization have long torn us apart. The battle is perennial and victory is never assured.

Through civil war, the Great Depression, world war, 9/11, through struggle, sacrifice and setbacks, our better angels have always prevailed. In each of these moments, enough of us have come together to carry all of us forward. And we can do that now. History, faith and reason show the way, the way of unity. We can see each other not as adversaries, but as neighbors. We can treat each other with dignity and respect. We can join forces, stop the shouting and lower the temperature. For without unity, there is no peace — only bitterness and fury. No progress — only exhausting outrage. No nation — only a state of chaos.

This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge. And unity is the path forward. And we must meet this moment as the United States of America. If we do that, I guarantee you we will not fail. We have never, ever, ever, ever failed in America when we’ve acted together.4


4 This was Biden's most pronounced appeal to unity. It will be difficult to make it happen, though — not just because of the faction of the Republican Party that remains loyal to Trump, but because of the historically close balance of power in the House and Senate. The Senate is 50-50, and the House is the closest it's been in about two decades. Any legislation will have to run through the political middle, but there are always political incentives to preventing a president from accomplishing things — notably, to argue they failed so your party's nominee might replace them. — A.B.


And so today at this time in this place, let’s start afresh, all of us. Let’s begin to listen to one another again. Hear one another, see one another, show respect to one another. Politics doesn’t have to be a raging fire, destroying everything in its path. Every disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war. And we must reject the culture in which facts themselves are manipulated and even manufactured.

My fellow Americans, we have to be different than this. America has to be better than this. And I believe America is so much better than this. Just look around. Here we stand in the shadow of the Capitol dome, as was mentioned earlier, completed amid the Civil War, when the Union itself was literally hanging in the balance. Yet we endured, we prevailed.

Here we stand looking out on the great Mall where Dr. King spoke of his dream. Here we stand, where 108 years ago, at another inaugural, thousands of protesters tried to block brave women marching for the right to vote. And today we marked the swearing-in of the first woman in American history elected to national office: Vice President Kamala Harris. Don’t tell me things can’t change.5


5 Biden pledged during his primary campaign to make history with his running mate pick, saying he’d only consider women. He followed through on that by selecting a lawmaker from one of the demographic groups who supported him the most — Black women — and the fastest growing minority group in the United States — Asian Americans. — E.S.


Here we stand across the Potomac from Arlington Cemetery, where heroes who gave the last full measure of devotion rest in eternal peace. And here we stand just days after a riotous mob thought they could use violence to silence the will of the people6, to stop the work of our democracy, to drive us from this sacred ground.


6 Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes, as well as winning the electoral college. The election results were affirmed repeatedly in courts as not having been marred by any widespread fraud. But the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 claimed otherwise, and former president Donald Trump never fully acknowledged this was the case. — E.S.


It did not happen. It will never happen. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever. Not ever.


To all those who supported our campaign, I’m humbled by the faith you’ve placed in us. To all those who did not support us, let me say this: Hear me out as we move forward. Take a measure of me and my heart. If you still disagree, so be it. That’s democracy. That’s America. The right to dissent, peaceably, the guardrails of our republic, is perhaps this nation’s greatest strength.

Yet hear me clearly: Disagreement must not lead to disunion. And I pledge this to you: I will be a president for all Americans.7 All Americans. And I promise you I will fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.


7 Biden’s pledge to reach across the aisle on policy and to earn the support of those who did not back him, rather than primarily viewing them as political enemies, was a mainstay of his candidacy, and it was a major theme of his address. — E.S.


Many centuries ago, St. Augustine, a saint in my church, wrote to the people was a multitude defined by the common objects of their love. Defined by the common objects of their love. What are the common objects we as Americans love, that define us as Americans? I think we know. Opportunity, security, liberty, dignity, respect, honor and, yes, the truth.

Recent weeks and months have taught us a painful lesson. There is truth and there are lies, lies told for power and for profit. And each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans, and especially as leaders, leaders who have pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our nation, to defend the truth and defeat the lies.8


8 This is one of the prominent features of Biden's speech: While calling for unity, an acknowledgment that some of his opponents aren't on the level and that their influence must be dealt with. Biden didn't use his speech to call out individuals who purveyed the theory that his win wasn't legitimate, but he seems to recognize that, without addressing the proliferation of falsehoods, his agenda will be difficult to enact. For a man who emphasizes conciliation, it was certainly a notable choice. — A.B.


Look — I understand that many of my fellow Americans view the future with fear and trepidation. I understand they worry about their jobs. I understand, like my dad, they lay in bed at night, staring at the ceiling, wondering: Can I keep my health care? Can I pay my mortgage? Thinking about their families, about what comes next. I promise you, I get it.

But the answer is not to turn inward, to retreat into competing factions, distrusting those who don’t look like you or worship the way you do, or don’t get their news from the same sources you do. We must end this uncivil war 9that pits red against blue, rural vs. urban, conservative vs. liberal. We can do this if we open our souls instead of hardening our hearts. If we show a little tolerance and humility, and if we’re willing to stand in the other person’s shoes, as my mom would say, just for a moment, stand in their shoes. Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand. That’s how it has to be. That’s what we do for one another. And if we are this way, our country will be stronger, more prosperous, more ready for the future. And we can still disagree.


9 One of the most memorable lines of the speech — and one that conjures images of the ugliest chapter in American history, which has to have been part of the calculation. It's Obama-esque, but also a realistic description of the nature of our politics. — A.B.


My fellow Americans, in the work ahead of us, we’re going to need each other. We need all our strength to persevere through this dark winter. We’re entering what may be the toughest and deadliest period of the virus. We must set aside politics and finally face this pandemic as one nation. One nation10.


10 The events of the past two months have in many ways papered over the size of the challenge ahead for Biden's administration, especially with regard to the coronavirus pandemic. Calls to "set aside politics" are boilerplate, but Biden acknowledges how much uglier it's likely to get become as we refocus on fighting the virus, rather than a threat to our democracy. — A.B.


And I promise you this, as the Bible says: “Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.” We will get through this together. Together.

Look, folks. All my colleagues I served with in the House of the Senate up there, we all understand the world is watching, watching all of us today. So here’s my message to those beyond our borders: 11America has been tested and we’ve come out stronger for it. We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again. Not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s challenges. And we’ll lead, not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.


11 Biden signals that the standoffish posture toward allies from the Trump administration is a thing of the past, as the United States' reputation has reached a new low, and that America can be trusted again to abide by its agreements. Biden is set to rejoin the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, which Trump pulled out of. A big question is how he handles the Iran deal that Trump left. — A.B.


We’ll be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress and security. Look — you all know we’ve been through so much in this nation. And my first act as president, I’d like to ask you to join me in a moment of silent prayer to remember all those who we lost this past year to the pandemic. Those 400,000 fellow Americans. Moms, dads, husbands, wives, sons, daughters, friends, neighbors and co-workers. We will honor them by becoming the people and the nation we know we can and should be. So I ask you, let’s say a silent prayer for those who’ve lost their lives, those left behind, and for our country.12


12 An acknowledgement of the biggest task that lies ahead. — A.B.


Amen.


Folks, this is a time of testing. We face an attack on our democracy and on truth, a raging virus, growing inequity, the sting of systemic racism, a climate in crisis, America’s role in the world. Any one of these will be enough to challenge us in profound ways. But the fact is, we face them all at once, presenting this nation with one of the gravest responsibilities we’ve had. Now we’re going to be tested. Are we going to step up? All of us? It’s time for boldness, for there is so much to do. And this is certain, I promise you: We will be judged, you and I, by how we resolve these cascading crises of our era.

Will we rise to the occasion is the question. Will we master this rare and difficult hour? Will we meet our obligations and pass along a new and better world to our children? I believe we must. I’m sure you do as well. I believe we will. And when we do, we’ll write the next great chapter in the history of the United States of America. The American story. A story that might sound something like a song that means a lot to me. It’s called “American Anthem.” There’s one verse that stands out, at least for me, and it goes like this:

The work and prayers of a century have brought us to this day.

What shall be our legacy? What will our children say?

Let me know in my heart when my days are through.

America, America, I gave my best to you.

Let's add. Let us add our own work and prayers to the unfolding story of our great nation. If we do this, then when our days are through, our children and our children's children will say of us: They gave their best, they did their duty, they healed a broken land.

My fellow Americans, I close the day where I began, with a sacred oath before God and all of you. I give you my word, I will always level with you. I will defend the Constitution. I’ll defend our democracy. I’ll defend America and I will give all, all of you. Keep everything I do in your service, thinking not of power, but of possibilities, not of personal interest, but the public good. And together we shall write an American story of hope, not fear. Of unity, not division. Of light, not darkness. A story of decency and dignity, love and healing, greatness and goodness. May this be the story that guides us. The story that inspires us and the story that tells ages yet to come that we answered the call of history. We met the moment. Democracy and hope, truth and justice did not die on our watch, but thrived. That America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world. That is what we owe our forebears, one another and generations to follow.

So, with purpose and resolve, we turn to those tasks of our time. Sustained by faith, driven by conviction, devoted to one another and the country we love with all our hearts. May God bless America and may God protect our troops. Thank you, America.



Monday, January 18, 2021

Independent pandemic review panel critical of China, WHO delays

 GENEVA (Reuters) - An independent panel said on Monday that Chinese officials could have applied public health measures more forcefully in January to curb the initial COVID-19 outbreak, and criticised the World Health Organization (WHO) for not declaring an international emergency until Jan. 30.

The experts reviewing the global handling of the pandemic, led by former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark and former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, called for reforms to the Geneva-based United Nations agency.Their interim report was published hours after the WHO's top emergency expert, Mike Ryan, said that global deaths from COVID-19 were expected to top 100,000 per week "very soon".

"What is clear to the Panel is that public health measures could have been applied more forcefully by local and national health authorities in China in January," the report said, referring to the initial outbreak of the new disease in the central city of Wuhan, in Hubei province.

As evidence emerged of human-to-human transmission, "in far too many countries, this signal was ignored", it added.

Specifically, it questioned why the WHO's Emergency Committee did not meet until the third week of January and did not declare an international emergency until its second meeting on Jan. 30.

"Although the term pandemic is neither used nor defined in the International Health Regulations (2005), its use does serve to focus attention on the gravity of a health event. It was not until 11 March that WHO used the term," the report said.

"The global pandemic alert system is not fit for purpose", it said. "The World Health Organization has been underpowered to do the job."

Under President Donald Trump, the United States has accused the WHO of being "China-centric", which the agency denies. European countries led by France and Germany have pushed for addressing the WHO's shortcomings on funding, governance and legal powers.

The panel called for a "global reset" and said that it would make recommendations in a final report to health ministers from the WHO's 194 member states in May.

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...