Wednesday, October 19, 2022

纽约时报:习近平,谢谢你!

By: BRET STEPHENS

2022年10月19日

尊敬的习主席:

在你作为中国共产党总书记的第三个任期开始之际,请接受我国的谢意和祝贺。虽然现在可能还不明显,但我们相信,你的统治总有一天会被视为美国以及其他自由国家历史上最大的意外之喜之一。

除了少数例外,这不是10年前你刚成为最高领导人时,人们普遍期待的情况。

那时,西方许多人认为,中国恢复其作为世界主导文明和最大经济体的古老地位只是一个时间问题。中国惊人的年增长率经常超过10%,使我们自己微不足道的经济进步黯然失色。在一个又一个行业——电信、银行、社交媒体、房地产,中国公司正在成为行业领导者。外国公民蜂拥而至,在上海、香港和北京生活、学习和工作;富裕的美国父母炫耀他们的孩子参加了沉浸式普通话班。

在决策层面,人们普遍接受这样的观点:一个更富有的中国将在海外具有更大的影响力——从西欧到南美,从中亚到东非,都会感受到这一点。虽然我们知道这种影响有时会很强硬,但却没有什么政治意愿来遏制它。中国似乎提供了一个独特的资本主义活力和威权主义效能相结合的模式。决策一旦做出,事情就可以完成。这与日益僵化的自由世界形成了鲜明的对比。

并不是说我们认为中国一切都很好。在你崛起的同时,你的主要竞争对手薄熙来在可能政变的谣言中戏剧性地倒台了。普遍的腐败、人口老龄化、国家在经济中的作用这些长期的挑战需要谨慎的管理。此外,迅速崛起的全球大国必然会引起国际社会的不满和抵制。

不过,你似乎可以胜任这项工作。你的家庭在文化大革命期间的痛苦经历表明,你了解极权主义的危险性。你打击腐败的决心似乎与你进一步开放经济的意愿相匹配——你任命有能力的技术官僚李克强为总理就证明了这一点。20世纪80年代,你曾在艾奥瓦州的一个家庭里生活,这令人们期望对你可能对美国怀有某种好感。

这些希望不仅仅是落空了,而是被粉碎了。如果说现在唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登——或汤姆·科顿和南希·佩洛西之间有一个共同点的话,那就是必须阻止你。

你是怎么做到的?

你的反腐战争变成了大规模清洗。你在新疆的镇压堪比苏联的古拉格。你的经济“改革”相当于让通常效率低下的国有企业重新成为主导者。

你们事实上的窥探、黑客攻击和窃取知识产权政策使华为等中国品牌在西方大部分地区让人敬而远之。2020年,联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·雷在一次演讲中指出,“我们现在已经到了这样的地步:联邦调查局每10个小时就会立案调查一个与中国有关的新的反间谍案件。”

你的清零政策有时将中国的大都市变成了巨大的、无法居住的监狱聚集地。你在外交上的霸凌在很大程度上成功地鼓励了日本重整军备,并鼓励拜登承诺美国将为台湾而战。

所有这些都可能使你的中国变得令人生畏。但这一切都不能使你变得强大。独裁者通常可以要求服从,但他们很难激发出忠诚。正如政治学家约瑟夫·奈著名的观察,胁迫的力量与吸引的力量是不一样的。这是一个可能很快就会困扰你的常识——就像现在困扰普京一样,如今,他一度令人生畏的军队在乌克兰被大批摧毁。

你仍然可以改变方向。但这似乎不太可能,不只是因为老人很少改变。你树敌越多,你需要的压制就越多。像你现在这样,让唯唯诺诺的人围绕在你身边,可能会给你带来一种安全感。但它会切断你与重要的真实信息之间的交流,特别是当那些信息令人不快的时候。

对于像你手中这样的政权来说,最致命的弱点就是它为维持权力而告诉人民的谎言最终会变成它告诉自己的谎言。把外国记者赶出中国只会使问题变得更糟糕,因为你再也无法从外界的视角了解你眼前日益复杂的问题。

这一切都不能解决我们美国的问题。在很多方面,你的好斗加剧了这些问题,尤其是在我们两国有一天可能发生冲突的风险越来越大的情况下。但在自由世界和非自由世界之间的长期竞争中,你在不知不觉中帮助自由这一边辩护。借用我同事汤姆·弗里德曼的一句话,“谁会想成为你统治下的中国?就算只有一天。”我对此表示怀疑。所以我们想说声谢谢。我们知道我们的合众国是有缺陷的;我们知道我们的领导人是有缺陷的;我们知道我们社会的边缘有裂痕。但是仔细看你一眼,我们宁愿选择这一切,也不愿选择你那阴暗的方向。

Bret Stephens自2017年4月起担任《纽约时报》观点与评论版面的专栏作家。他于2013年在《华尔街日报》工作时获普利策评论奖,此前还曾担任《耶路撒冷邮报》主编。

Friday, October 14, 2022

Why Saudi Arabia and OPEC can diss Biden

 Washington is aflame in the aftermath of the Oct. 5 decision by the OPEC+ oil cartel to cut oil production for the foreseeable future. OPEC+ includes the 13 members of OPEC and 11 other nations, most notably Russia. Saudi Arabia is the biggest energy producer among the group, and its de facto leader. Russia is the second-biggest energy producer in the group.

Saudi Arabia seems to be doing Russia’s bidding by keeping oil markets tight, and pushing prices up. Oil exports are the Russian government’s biggest source of revenue, and a crucial source of financing for its diabolical war in Ukraine. Most of the Western world supports Ukraine, including tough sanctions meant to strangle Russia’s economy. President Biden has asked Saudi Arabia to pump more oil, to stabilize energy markets amid wartime disruptions. The Saudi rebuke is a win for Russian President Vladimir Putin and a political embarrassment for Biden just ahead of midterm elections. It also means consumers in all the countries supporting Ukraine will pay more for gasoline and other oil products during the coming months.

Biden has said there will be “consequences for what they’ve done with Russia,” without spelling out what those might be. But Saudi Arabia, like it or not, retains tons of leverage over the US and world energy markets, even as many nations move to curtail the use of fossil fuels and boost renewables.

“We are still going to be having to make asks of these countries when we need more oil,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy for RBC Capital Markets, said at an Oct. 12 Columbia University energy conference. “Who’s going to be sitting on spare capacity? It’s going to be a small number of Gulf producers and a handful of national oil companies that continue to invest on a really big scale. That means we’re going to have to continue to have dialogue with these countries.”

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman walks during a meeting with Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman walks during a meeting with Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Saudi Arabia has been a US ally for decades, but outraged Washington heavyweights now feel spurned—and vindictive. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who chairs the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, wrote Biden an open letter calling the OPEC move “reckless” and demanding that the US ramp up its own energy production to counter OPEC. Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wants to “immediately freeze all aspects” of US-Saudi cooperation, including US arms sales to the kingdom. There’s growing support in Congress, among both parties, for “NOPEC” legislation that would give the US Department of Justice more tools for addressing OPEC price hikes.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, issued an unusual rebuttal on Oct. 13, saying the OPEC+ production cut was based on economics, not political support for Russia. Saudi Arabia also said the US-Saudi relationship “is a strategic one that serves the common good interest of both countries.” But the production cut stands.

The slow shift away from fossil fuels

Many Americans hear that the United States is the world’s largest oil and gas producer—which is true—and think there must be something wrong with government policy if we can’t keep domestic energy prices low. For the most part, however, the problem is not government policy. It’s the rapidly changing nature of world energy markets and the risks investors face if they make the wrong bet.

The world is shifting away from fossil fuels, toward renewables, and government policy may only affect how quickly that happens. Consumers are demanding this shift, as the ravages of climate change become more apparent. Innovative companies such as Tesla are giving consumers what they want and earning billions. Many businesses, sensing the next big thing, aim to follow. Government incentives, such as those in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, will be a powerful force drawing private capital into renewables and speeding the pace of innovation.

Elon Musk attends the opening ceremony of the new Tesla Gigafactory for electric cars in Gruenheide, Germany, March 22, 2022. Patrick Pleul/Pool via REUTERS
Elon Musk attends the opening ceremony of the new Tesla Gigafactory for electric cars in Gruenheide, Germany, March 22, 2022. Patrick Pleul/Pool via REUTERS

Fossil fuels, meanwhile, are a still-profitable business, but one that seems destined to decline over the next 20 or 30 years. We will need oil and natural gas for a long time to come. But less and less of it. That makes a lousy case for big investments that could expand supply, such as new wells or refineries.

Americans tend to forget that the US energy industry is largely a private-sector business driven by the profit motive and capitalist dynamics. Energy firms have shareholders and investors and contractual obligations, which means they have to deploy capital where it gets the highest returns. They don't produce extra energy just because consumers or politicians demand it. One of the biggest concerns at fossil-fuel companies now is the risk of “stranded assets”—big projects that could rapidly lose value as the market for fossil fuels dries up. In that type of environment, nobody wants to invest in assets that could become obsolete before they’ve generated a return.

The advantage of state-run companies

This is where the OPEC+ nations have an advantage. Those nations typically have nationalized oil companies that are basically run by the government. The biggest is Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia, followed by Rosneft in Russia. Other big producers include the national oil companies of Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, the UAE, Brazil and Mexico. China doesn’t export much oil, but it has two giant state-run companies in the oil and natural gas business.

State-run energy companies don’t have to worry about shareholder returns, and sometimes they don't even need to worry about profits. They operate, instead, as levers of government policy, and can make investments to expand capacity if that aligns with government goals. In many cases, it does. Saudi Arabia is diversifying its economy beyond energy, yet Saudi Aramco said earlier this year it will boost capital expenditures by up to $50 billion this year, and by similar amounts until 2025 or 2026. That could make Saudi Arabia an even more important “swing producer” able to dial output up or down as the government wishes.

In the United States, high prices are swelling profits at energy firms, just as at Aramco. But oil companies are cautious about making investments, and US production is creeping up only gradually. Nobody in the oil and gas industry wants another boom-bust cycle driven by excess supply that ultimately tanks prices. There’s more excitement about cashing in on booming demand for renewables.

There are ways Biden could impose some pain on Saudi Arabia. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut wants Biden to move US Patriot air-defense missiles that are currently in Saudi Arabia to Ukraine or to NATO allies in Europe, and to redirect a forthcoming sale of air-to-air missiles from Saudi Arabia to Ukraine, as well. The Saudis face a militant foe across the Persian Gulf—Iran—and could feel vulnerable without US weaponry. Of course, the Saudis could also retaliate by cutting oil supplies even more.

Manchin, in his letter to Biden, listed a series of things Biden could do, some involving Congressional legislation, to encourage more US oil and natural gas production: fast-track permitting for pipelines and other types of infrastructure, speed oil and gas leasing, fully staff all the federal agencies with energy oversight. Even if he did all that however, it wouldn’t change much about the financial risk of investing in a declining industry.

What might really ease US reliance on non-democratic nations such as Saudi Arabia is a sharp cutback in fossil fuel use. That’s coming, as more people drive electric cars and install solar roofs, and efficiency measures get better. But the transition to renewables will take a long time and face many barriers, such as the difficulty building high-voltage transmission lines able to quickly move power around the country. For years to come, we will still need energy from producers we don’t like who face fewer constraints that we do here at home.

Friday, October 7, 2022

Explainer-What is 'FDPR' and why is the U.S. using it to cripple China's tech sector?

 OAKLAND, Calif. (Reuters) - They did it to Huawei. They used it on Russia. Now, the United States is going after China's advanced computing and supercomputer industry.

The weapon? A little-known rule that enables U.S. regulators to extend their technology export control powers far beyond America's borders to transactions between foreign countries and China.

The provision called the foreign direct product rule, or FDPR, was first introduced in 1959 to control trading of U.S. technologies. It essentially says that if a product was made using American technology, the U.S. government has the power to stop it from being sold - including products made in a foreign country.

On Friday, U.S. officials applied the rule to China's advanced computing and supercomputer industry to stop it from obtaining advanced computing chips.

The rule took center stage in August 2020, when it was used against China telecom company Huawei Technologies Co Ltd. American officials had tried to cut off Huawei's supply of semiconductors but found that companies were still shipping to Huawei chips made in factories outside the United States.

Eventually, U.S. regulators found a choke point: Almost all chip factories contain critical tools from U.S. suppliers. So they expanded the FDPR to control trade of chips made using U.S. technology or tools. That move was a blow to Huawei's smart phone business, and U.S. regulators used it on Russia and Belarus after the invasion of Ukraine to cut off chips.

Dan Fisher-Owens, a specialist in export controls on chips at law firm Berliner Corcoran & Rowe, said the expansion in FDPR closed a gap in U.S. export control jurisdiction.

However, he said the United States has been cautious about using the rule as it can drag foreign companies into the process and "create friction" with allies who may disagree with the application of U.S. law.

Senior U.S. officials said on Friday the new application will stop advanced chip use in Chinese supercomputers, which can be used to develop nuclear weapons and other military applications.

The United States had already placed a number of Chinese supercomputing companies on a restricted entity list, cutting them off from buying U.S. chips. But those companies started to design their own chips and seek to have them manufactured - a strategy that the U.S. action on Friday were designed to thwart.

The latest move would ban any semiconductor manufacturing firm that uses American tools - which most do - from selling advanced chips to China, said Karl Freund, a chip consultant at Cambrian AI who watches the supercomputing space.

"They will have to develop their own manufacturing technologies, and they'll have to develop their own processor technologies to replace the missing U.S. or Western technologies that they're using today," said Freund, a chip consultant at Cambrian AI who watches the supercomputing space.

In that case, it could take China five to 10 years to catch up to today's technology, he added.

(Reporting by Jane Lanhee Lee in Oakland, California; Editing by Peter Henderson and Richard Chang)

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

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