Wednesday, April 24, 2024

一个普通人的世界观

 编者:爱因斯坦的“我的世界观”,到今年刚好90年。作为对比,颇有趣。

生命的意义:人生有意义吗?或者再进一步,所有有机生物的生命?我认为生命本身是没什么意义的。漫长的进化,从单细胞到多细胞,从植物到动物,生命在利用能源的过程中,为了更好的适应环境,而对自己不断改造,最终成就了人类。和非洲大草原上奔腾的角马一样,人类的生命于这个世界,是没有什么意义的。人们从出生到死亡,在这世上匆匆忙忙的走上一遭,感知到属于自己的喜乐,该离开的时候,不管是不是情愿,也都一定要“不带走一片云彩“的随风而去。如果一定说有什么意义的话,就是给亲人带来爱,给后代留下一个更好的世界。

我的世界观:寿命有限这个事实,对人类而言是不幸,也是幸运。不幸容易理解,生离死别,是人生最大的痛苦。而幸运则是指人类不会面对着永久的虚空而无聊。所有的逝去,和所有的将来,让人类对这个世界始终保持着好奇。让人们在“逝者如斯“的紧迫下,不断去探索,去经历,去发现,去惊讶,去生活。只有体会到了告别的不舍,才会明白拥有的可贵。我们为自己,为自己所爱的人,努力的生活。这世上的每一分钟都是宝贵的。

从哲学角度来讲,我认为人类是自由的。叔本华说,“人的行为由意念支配,而意念却不受人支配“。但是,人类的意念不是凭空而来,而是人为了应对环境的挑战而做出的回应。饿了我们要吃东西,冷了我们要穿衣服。人类的意念,或者欲望,让人类能够生存下来,从根本上来说是为人服务的。更重要的一点,人类的意念并不是被强加的。人生于天地之间,随念而动,随感而发。从这个角度来讲,人是自由的。我因为这一点,尊重人类,和世间所有自由的物种。

对于社会,我认为每个人都有责任。这和人类的自由是密切相关的。因为每个人都想过自由的生活,所以除非这世间只剩下一个人,那么自由就有边界。人类社会因为人类的协作而存在,所以在人类社会里生活的人们,就必须学会如何与他人相处,由此也就产生了社会的规则。简单的说,规则就是个人自由的边界。任何人的自由,都不能建立在践踏他人的自由之上。

对于社会的政治制度,我赞成民主。引用丘吉尔的那句名言,“民主是最不坏的制度“。大家提出自己的主张,谁能说服选民,就能得到更多的选票。且不说这个制度带来的大众讨论和参与,单单是摆脱了历史上的起义,政变和革命,就已经是巨大的进步。当然它有自己的缺点,但是说它是现在所有选择中,”最不坏“的制度,这一点就比独裁制度要好。

我反对战争,我也不喜欢群体生活。但是我尊重军人的付出。因为只有和平,才能带来幸福的生活。而不幸的是,人类这个物种有很强的欲望,每个人都想要更多的财富,更多的权力,更多的名望,而这个世界的资源有限,所以过多的欲望不可避免的会带来冲突,也就不可避免的会带来战争。既然人类目前的智慧还无法消灭战争,那么保护自己所爱的人不受战争的摧残,就是军人的职责。虽然我反对战争,但是如果有人要剥夺我的自由,奴役我的家人,我会毫不犹豫的拿起武器。

再说说科学吧。科学有尽头吗?我认为没有。打个比方,人类掌握的知识总量如果是一个圆圈,那么人类掌握的知识越多,圆圈就越大,随着圆圈的增长,圆圈的边界也就越大,而未知也就越多,因为圆圈外面就是未知。毋庸置疑,人类会不断的进步。但是置于无穷的时间和空间之中,人类永远都是渺小的。

相比于宇宙之浩瀚,人类就如同沧海一粟。我们能够存在于这个星球已是奇迹,而你我又能仰望苍穹,思考人生之意义,何其幸也!我们来于偶然,去于必然。这若梦的浮生,每个人都会按照自己的自由意志,走完属于自己的人生道路。每个人都是自己生活的拥有者和评判者。对于我个人来说,过好自己的生活,并尽力让我周围的人感到温暖,这就是我生命的意义。

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

我的世界观

 编者:这篇文章首次发表于1934年,那一年爱因斯坦55岁。每个人对这个世界都有自己独特的看法,但不是每个人都有机会把自己的世界观公开发表出来。其实这样一篇文章不需要很长的篇幅,也不一定是成名成家的人物,才有资格谈论自己的世界观。在互联网普及的今天,也许会看到更多人的世界观。很久之前读过中译本,总觉有些拗口,自己重新翻译,和原文记于此。

生命的意义:人生有意义吗?或者再进一步,所有有机生物的生命?要回答这个问题,就会涉及宗教。那么也许你会问,干嘛要问这个问题?我的回答是,如果一个人认为自己和其他人类的生命没有任何意义,那么对于他自己就不仅仅是不幸那么简单了,而是根本不合适成为一个生命。

我的世界观:作为一个寿命有限的物种,我们的处境多奇特啊!我们每一个人都在这世上匆匆忙忙地走一遭。为了什么?没人知道。虽然有的时候,会感觉到一种使命感。如果只从日常生活,不做深究的话,我们是为了周围的人而活。首先是为了熟人的笑脸和健康,这是我们快乐的源泉。然后呢,是为了社会上其他我们并不熟识的人,我们之间的命运通过相互同情而维系。每天我都无数次的提醒自己,我的生活里里外外都依赖于其他人的工作,甚至包括那些已经故去的人。所以我必须尽我所能回馈我所享受的,从过去到现在。我崇尚简单生活,为自己占据了太多其他人的劳动而惴惴不安。我认为阶级的划分并不公平,说到底是基于权力。我还认为简单的生活有益于每一个人的身心。

从哲学角度来讲,我不相信人类是自由的。每个人的行为,既来自于外界的驱使,也来自于内心的需求。叔本华的那句,“人的行为由意念支配,而意念却不受人支配”,一直让我深受启发,并在我面对艰难世事的时候,给我不尽的安慰,也是我耐心的源泉。幸好有了这种感觉,才消减了那种很容易让人感到无力的责任感,也让人们不至于太把自己和别人当回事儿。毕竟生活中需要一些幽默。

从主观的角度,质询人生的意义或者目的,对于我来说有些荒诞。毕竟每个人对自己的努力和判断,都有自己的理想。从这个意义讲,我从来不认为从容和喜乐是最终目的,这种目的对一群猪更合适。在我的人生旅途之中,不时鞭策着我,给我乐观面对生活的勇气的,是“真,善,美”。如果没有志同道合的人的陪伴,没有对目标的坚守,没有在艺术和科学领域无尽的求索,人生于我没有任何意义。通常他人努力追求的东西,比如财产,成功和奢侈,我视之如粪土。

我对社会公正和社会责任富有激情,这和我明显与他人和社群保持距离的态度,是一个奇怪的反差。我特立独行,打心眼儿里就从来不觉得我属于自己的祖国,自己的家,自己的朋友,或者自己的亲人。我从来都漠视这些羁绊,独处的需求与日俱增。或许有人清楚的知道,与他人达成共识和共情的可能性是有限的。这没什么可遗憾的。这样的人无疑会缺少一些亲和力,心态也不会轻松,但是另一方面,他大多不会太在意别人的意见,习惯和看法,会避免这些不稳定的因素影响自己的立场。

我的政治理想是民主。每个人都有尊严,而不崇拜任何人。虽然有些讽刺的是,我本人就接受了过度的称赞和钦佩。此事非本人之功,亦非本人之过。大概是源于本人尽自己虽绵薄但不懈之努力所提出的一两个理论,理解这些理论超出了很多人的能力范围,但是大家都渴望了解更多。一个复杂组织的顺利运作,往往需要组织的首脑来做规划和指导,当然也承担责任。但是领导力是不可强加于人的,大家必须能够选择自己的领导人。一个基于高压政治的独裁系统,在我看来,必不长久。因为暴力旗帜下所聚集的必是无德之人,天才的暴君也会被无赖所继承,我相信这是铁律。基于这个原因,我强烈反对我们今天在意大利和俄罗斯所看到的制度。今天欧洲的主流民主制度所遭到的诟病,并不是源于民主本身,而是源于政府首脑缺乏稳定性和缺少个人色彩的选举制度。我认为关于民主制度,美国的做法是正确的。他们的总统是能够负责的职位,总统有足够长的任期和足够的权力,去做到真正的负责。不过从另一个方面来讲,我们的政治制度的价值在于它能够给予病患或者需要的人更广泛的帮助。依我看来,人生这场盛宴,真正宝贵的不是什么国家,而是每一个富有创造力,有感知的个人,个性鲜明的个人。只有个人,才能创造出高贵和高尚。而群体,于思想于情感,都是愚钝的。

由此让我想到了群体性最糟糕的体现,就是我所憎恶的军队体系。如果一个人能够在军乐队的伴奏中,在队列式的行进中找到快乐,那就足以让我鄙视了。他拥有大脑都是一个错误,给他一个脊椎就够了。这个文明的灾祸应该被尽快铲除。命令下产生的英雄主义,无意义的暴行,以及所有的令人厌恶的荒唐,这些都以爱国之名 --- 我痛恨所有这些!对于我来说,战争是一个恶毒而可鄙的东西,我宁愿粉身碎骨也绝不参与这种可憎之事。尽管如此,我对人类的敬意让我相信,如果不是因为国家的心智被商业和政治利益通过学校和传媒被系统的腐化了,战争早就应该被扫进历史的垃圾堆了。

我们所能经历的最奇妙的莫过于神秘了吧?它是在真正的艺术和科学摇篮边,最朴素的情感。如果一个人不知道神秘,不能感到好奇,不再会感叹,那么他和死了也没什么两样,一只熄灭的蜡烛罢了。正是这种神秘的感觉,哪怕或许参杂着恐惧,孕育出了宗教。要知道某些存在是我们无法了解的,是最深奥的原因的表象,是最绚烂的美丽,这些都只能以最基本的形式被我们的理智所触及。这种认知和这种情绪,构成了真正的宗教态度。从这个角度,也只从这个角度,我是一个虔诚的教徒。我无法设想一个能够奖赏或者惩罚他所创之生命的造物主,也无法设想一个与我们自己的认知有相似欲望的神。我无法理解一个人身体死亡之后还能存在,我也不希望如此。那些软弱的灵魂,出于恐惧和无聊的自我意识,才会有这些想法。对于我来说,永恒生命的神秘,现实结构的神奇,专心探索去了解哪怕是微不足道的一部分,这些对我已经足够了。

The Meaning of Life 

What is the meaning of human life, or of organic life altogether? To answer this question at all implies a religion. Is there any sense then, you ask, in putting it? I answer, the man who regards his own life and that of his fellow-creatures as meaningless is not merely unfortunate but almost disqualified for life. 

The World as I see it 

What an extraordinary situation is that of us mortals! Each of us is here for a brief sojourn; for what purpose he knows not, though he sometimes thinks he feels it. But from the point of view of daily life, without going deeper, we exist for our fellow-men--in the first place for those on whose smiles and welfare all our happiness depends, and next for all those unknown to us personally with whose destinies we are bound up by the tie of sympathy. A hundred times every day I remind myself that my inner and outer life depend on the labours of other men, living and dead, and that I must exert myself in order to give in the same measure as I have received and am still receiving. I am strongly drawn to the simple life and am often oppressed by the feeling that I am engrossing an unnecessary amount of the labour of my fellow-men. I regard class differences as contrary to justice and, in the last resort, based on force. I also consider that plain living is good for everybody, physically and mentally. 

In human freedom in the philosophical sense I am definitely a disbeliever. Everybody acts not only under external compulsion but also in accordance with inner necessity. Schopenhauer's saying, that "a man can do as he will, but not will as he will," has been an inspiration to me since my youth up, and a continual consolation and unfailing well-spring of patience in the face of the hardships of life, my own and others'. This feeling mercifully mitigates the sense of responsibility which so easily becomes paralysing, and it prevents us from taking ourselves and other people too seriously; it conduces to a view of life in which humour, above all, has its due place.

To inquire after the meaning or object of one's own existence or of creation generally has always seemed to me absurd from an objective point of view. And yet everybody has certain ideals which determine the direction of his endeavours and his judgments. In this sense I have never looked upon ease and happiness as ends in themselves--such an ethical basis I call more proper for a herd of swine. The ideals which have lighted me on my way and time after time given me new courage to face life cheerfully, have been Truth, Goodness, and Beauty. Without the sense of fellowship with men of like mind, of preoccupation with the objective, the eternally unattainable in the field of art and scientific research, life would have seemed to me empty. The ordinary objects of human endeavour--property, outward success, luxury--have always seemed to me contemptible. 

My passionate sense of social justice and social responsibility has always contrasted oddly with my pronounced freedom from the need for direct contact with other human beings and human communities. I gang my own gait and have never belonged to my country, my home, my friends, or even my immediate family, with my whole heart; in the face of all these ties I have never lost an obstinate sense of detachment, of the need for solitude--a feeling which increases with the years. One is sharply conscious, yet without regret, of the limits to the possibility of mutual understanding and sympathy with one's fellow-creatures. Such a person no doubt loses something in the way of geniality and light-heartedness ; on the other hand, he is largely independent of the opinions, habits, and judgments of his fellows and avoids the temptation to take his stand on such insecure foundations. 

My political ideal is that of democracy. Let every man be respected as an individual and no man idolized. It is an irony of fate that I myself have been the recipient of excessive admiration and respect from my fellows through no fault, and no merit, of my own. The cause of this may well be the desire, unattainable for many, to understand the one or two ideas to which I have with my feeble powers attained through ceaseless struggle. I am quite aware that it is necessary for the success of any complex undertaking that one man should do the thinking and directing and in general bear the responsibility. But the led must not be compelled, they must be able to choose their leader. An autocratic system of coercion, in my opinion, soon degenerates. For force always attracts men of low morality, and I believe it to be an invariable rule that tyrants of genius are succeeded by scoundrels. For this reason I have always been passionately opposed to systems such as we see in Italy and Russia to-day. The thing that has brought discredit upon the prevailing form of democracy in Europe to-day is not to be laid to the door of the democratic idea as such, but to lack of stability on the part of the heads of governments and to the impersonal character of the electoral system. I believe that in this respect the United States of America have found the right way. They have a responsible President who is elected for a sufficiently long period and has sufficient powers to be really responsible. On the other hand, what I value in our political system is the more extensive provision that it makes for the individual in case of illness or need. The really valuable thing in the pageant of human life seems to me not the State but the creative, sentient individual, the personality; it alone creates the noble and the sublime, while the herd as such remains dull in thought and dull in feeling. 

This topic brings me to that worst outcrop of the herd nature, the military system, which I abhor. That a man can take pleasure in marching in formation to the strains of a band is enough to make me despise him. He has only been given his big brain by mistake; a backbone was all he needed. This plague-spot of civilization ought to be abolished with all possible speed. Heroism by order, senseless violence, and all the pestilent nonsense that does by the name of patriotism--how I hate them! War seems to me a mean, contemptible thing: I would rather be hacked in pieces than take part in such an abominable business. And yet so high, in spite of everything, is my opinion of the human race that I believe this bogey would have disappeared long ago, had the sound sense of the nations not been systematically corrupted by commercial and political interests acting through the schools and the Press. 

The fairest thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the fundamental emotion which stands at the cradle of true art and true science. He who knows it not and can no longer wonder, no longer feel amazement, is as good as dead, a snuffed-out candle. It was the experience of mystery--even if mixed with fear--that engendered religion. A knowledge of the existence of something we cannot penetrate, of the manifestations of the profoundest reason and the most radiant beauty, which are only accessible to our reason in their most elementary forms--it is this knowledge and this emotion that constitute the truly religious attitude; in this sense, and in this alone, I am a deeply religious man. I cannot conceive of a God who rewards and punishes his creatures, or has a will of the type of which we are conscious in ourselves. An individual who should survive his physical death is also beyond my comprehension, nor do I wish it otherwise; such notions are for the fears or absurd egoism of feeble souls. Enough for me the mystery of the eternity of life, and the inkling of the marvellous structure of reality, together with the single-hearted endeavour to comprehend a portion, be it never so tiny, of the reason that manifests itself in nature

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Xi Jinping’s misguided plan to escape economic stagnation

编者:这篇文章首次清楚的解释了什么是“新质生产力”, 即优先发展先进制造业,包括电动汽车,电池,生物制造和以无人机为依托的“低海拔经济”。

It is china’s gravest economic test since the most far-reaching of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms began in the 1990s. Last year the country achieved growth of 5%, but the pillars of its decades-long miracle are wobbling. Its famously industrious workforce is shrinking, history’s wildest property boom has turned to bust and the global system of free trade that China used to get richer is disintegrating. As our reporting explains, President Xi Jinping’s response is to double down on an audacious plan to remake China’s economy. Blending techno-utopianism, central planning and an obsession with security, this sets out China’s ambition to dominate the industries of tomorrow. But its contradictions mean it will disappoint China’s people and anger the rest of the world.

Compared with 12 months ago, let alone the go-go years, the mood in China is dour. Although industrial production perked up in March, consumers are depressed, deflation lurks and many entrepreneurs are disillusioned. Behind the angst lie deeper fears about China’s vulnerabilities. It is forecast to lose 20% of its workforce by 2050. A crisis in the property industry, which drives a fifth of gdp, will take years to fix. It will hurt cash-strapped local governments that relied on land sales for revenues and flourishing real estate for growth. Relations with America are steadier, as a phone call between Mr Xi and President Joe Biden this week attested. But they remain fragile. Chinese officials are convinced that America will restrict more Chinese imports and penalise more Chinese firms, whoever wins the White House in November.

China’s response is a strategy built around what officials call “new productive forces”. This eschews the conventional path of a big consumer stimulus to reflate the economy (that’s the kind of ruse the decadent West resorts to). Instead Mr Xi wants state power to accelerate advanced manufacturing industries, which will in turn create high-productivity jobs, make China self-sufficient and secure it against American aggression. China will leapfrog steel and skyscrapers to a golden era of mass production of electric cars, batteries, biomanufacturing and the drone-based “low-altitude economy”.

The scope of this plan is breathtaking. We estimate annual investment in “new productive forces” has reached $1.6trn—a fifth of all investment and double what it was five years ago in nominal terms. This is equivalent to 43% of all business investment in America in 2023. Factory capacity in some industries could rise by over 75% by 2030. Some of this will be made by world-class firms keen to create value, but much will be prompted by subsidies and implicit or explicit state direction. Foreign companies are welcome, even though many have been burned in China before. Mr Xi’s ultimate aim is to invert the balance of power in the global economy. Not only will China escape dependence on Western technology, but it will control much of the key intellectual property in new industries and charge rents accordingly. Multinationals will come to China to learn, not teach.

However, Mr Xi’s plan is fundamentally misguided. One flaw is that it neglects consumers. Although their spending dwarfs property and the new productive forces, it accounts for just 37% of gdp, much lower than global norms. To restore confidence amid the property slump and thereby boost consumer spending requires stimulus. To induce consumers to save less requires better social security and health care, and reforms that open up public services to all urban migrants. Mr Xi’s reluctance to embrace this reflects his austere mindset. He detests the idea of bailing out speculative property firms or giving handouts to citizens. Young people should be less pampered and willing to “eat bitterness”, he said last year.

Another flaw is that weak domestic demand means some new production will have to be exported. The world has, regrettably, moved on from the free-trading 2000s—partly because of China’s own mercantilism. America will surely block advanced imports from China, or those made by Chinese firms elsewhere. Europe is in a panic about fleets of Chinese vehicles wiping out its carmakers. Chinese officials say they can redirect exports to the global south. But if emerging countries’ industrial development is undermined by a new “China shock”, they, too, will grow wary. China accounts for 31% of global manufacturing. In a protectionist age, how much higher can that figure go?

The last flaw is Mr Xi’s unrealistic view of entrepreneurs, the dynamos of the past 30 years. Investment in politically favoured industries is soaring, but the underlying mechanism of capitalist risk-taking has been damaged. Many bosses complain of Mr Xi’s unpredictable rule-making and fear purges or even arrest. Relative stockmarket valuations are at a 25-year low; foreign firms are wary; there are signs of capital flight and tycoons emigrating. Unless entrepreneurs are unshackled, innovation will suffer and resources will be wasted.

China could become like Japan in the 1990s, trapped by deflation and a property crash. Worse, its lopsided growth model could wreck international trade. If so, that could ratchet geopolitical tensions even higher. America and its allies should not cheer that scenario. If China was stagnating and discontented, it could be even more bellicose than if it were thriving.

Old reductive forces

If these flaws are obvious, why doesn’t China change course? One reason is that Mr Xi is not listening. For much of the past 30 years, China has been open to outside views on economic reform. Its technocrats studied global best practice and welcomed vigorous technical debates. Under Mr Xi’s centralising rule, economic experts have been marginalised and the feedback leaders used to receive has turned into flattery. The other reason Mr Xi charges on is that national security now takes precedence over prosperity. China must be prepared for the struggle ahead with America, even if there is a price to pay. It is a profound change from the 1990s and its ill-effects will be felt in China and around the world.

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...