Friday, June 20, 2025

My immigrant parents attended my Yale graduation. Seeing them on the Ivy League campus for the first time was surprisingly moving.

 编者:像所有移民致敬。

  • My immigrant parents never visited me while I was a student at Yale, but they came to my graduation.

  • They didn't fit in with the other families, and they often apologized for their presence.

  • It was moving seeing them on the Ivy League campus, signifying all they gave up for me.

The night before I left for my senior year at Yale, my mom and I joked that we would find each other again in the next lifetime, but as classmates. We imagined ourselves sitting in the back row of some old lecture hall, whispering about which New Haven spot to try next for dinner.

"And Dad?" I asked.

"He would probably be in the very first row," Mom laughed. "You know he loves to talk."

That fantasy came to life in May when my immigrant parents finally came to visit me at Yale for the first time. Neither of them graduated from high school in rural China, but they came to campus to celebrate my commencement.

For years, complicated logistics and sacrifices kept them away. My father rarely left New York because of my grandparents' declining health, while my mother has grown increasingly reluctant to travel alone.

They missed every one of Yale's annual family events. Our story is far from unique. Immigrant parents exist in a gray zone between demanding work schedules and language barriers. Plus, mounting scrutiny on noncitizens makes even domestic travel fraught with risk.

I was determined that graduation would make up for the missed opportunities to bond with my parents. I just didn't expect to be so moved by their presence on campus.

I hoped to give my parents the full college experience

I coordinated the details: guiding them through train transfers, creating an ambitious itinerary of museums, libraries, restaurants, and landmarks. I even coached my mom on what to say if anyone asked for ID at any point.

I also wanted them to participate in the Yale Class Day traditions: decorating personalized graduation hats, seeing the annual comedy skit, and listening to student representatives from various faiths read scriptures at the Baccalaureate Ceremony.

It was my mission to make them feel comfortable at the school, but part of my motivation was selfish. Nothing meant more to me than walking across that stage, turning to the audience, and seeing their faces cheer me on. I wanted my parents to know their son was standing tall in a place that once seemed impossible.

Their presence stood in quiet contrast to the families surrounding us

While I was excited to see them cheer, I didn't expect them to look so lost on the Ivy League campus.

Other families moved confidently through the elite spaces, spoke fluent English, knew the difference between Gothic and Baroque architecture, and, in some cases, proudly returned as Yale alums.

I noticed that my mom and dad over-apologized throughout their stay. "Sorry," they said, while smiling and brushing past security. They said it again when they accidentally got in the way of a photo shoot, or when catching a break during our hike up East Rock, a mountain ridge north of campus that ends up with a breathtaking view of New Haven.

"Sorry," they said as we took a rest at the base of a large hemlock. A small creek burbled in front of us, and Dad picked up a few rocks and skipped them across the water. They got close, but the rocks never reached the opposite bank.

It wasn't the humility that moved me; it was the exhausting vigilance I saw in my parents. It pained me the way they tried not to inconvenience others — a broader reflection of what it means to be immigrants in our country. They were two people who grew up too fast, who put aside their differences and discomforts to join me at a place I have now become accustomed to.

If college graduation is all about thrusting ourselves into uncharted waters, then this was just as much their graduation as mine.

I will long cherish my parents' visit

Having my parents finally on Yale's campus reminded me to cherish the moments we have together and not harp on the moments they missed over the past four years. I know they'll also miss out on important milestones as I head into med school at Stanford.

Even though it can get lonely without them around to cheer me on through all my achievements, I'm proud to honor their hard work in this country.

Toward the end of their three-day stay for commencement, I took my parents to Marsh Hall, where I had my first biology course as a first-year student. Seating 483 students, it's also the largest classroom at Yale. My parents went to the front of the classroom. They marveled at the Japanese chalk near the blackboard, flipped through empty blue book exams, and wondered how the projector worked.

I took off my glasses, and through the blur, my parents looked like college students having fun: Mom in her emerald green dress and Dad in the dress shirt I'd bought him. They seemed too busy looking around to notice me. From the margins, watching the two people I loved most forget me, even if it was just for a moment, I was happy.

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

美国市场正在分化,为什么MAGA经济能蓬勃发展?

 想象一个完美的清晨。在阴谋论者迈克·林德尔创立的“我的枕头”(My Pillow)床品间醒来,然后来杯“黑步枪咖啡”(Black Rifle Coffee),这家咖啡店标榜“为热爱美国的人提供咖啡和文化”。接着用“杰里米剃须刀”(Jeremy’s Razors)剃须,这款剃须刀专为“硬朗的下巴线条设计”。再吃几片“好牧场”(Good Ranchers)的培根,这家公司承诺“让美国农场再次强大”,最后骑上你的哈雷摩托兜个风。


但MAGA阵营的势力范围远不止这些营销夸张的商品,还包括那些受共和党人青睐的产品和企业。每个经济选择的累计都会产生更大的影响。据我们分析,美国正分化为两大经济和市场阵营:保守派与自由派。双方对经济的认知迥异,消费选择不同,所处的行业也日益分化。更令人意外的是,MAGA经济的表现竟然相当亮眼。

美国自由派人士往往对专攻保守派市场的公司嗤之以鼻。虽说这一定程度上是因为他们不喜欢对方,但有些MAGA产品确实看着像骗局。特朗普的加密币在推出后一度飙升,但很快就崩盘了,让许多支持者损失惨重。他推出的品牌手表,包括“战斗、战斗、战斗”款,售价最高达10万美元,评价却褒贬不一。

这种傲慢也反映出一种观点,即认为保守经济是落后的。2016年民主党总统候选人希拉里·克林顿曾指出,“她获胜的地区,占美国国内生产总值三分之二,这些地方充满乐观、多元和活力,正不断向前迈进”。2024年总统候选人哈里斯也是如此。

当然,一些稳定的共和党选区长期以来也很富裕,比如佛罗里达州的朱庇特镇,人们打高尔夫球,穿白色休闲裤。然而,在加利福尼亚北部的尤巴市,许多当地人务农,且强烈支持特朗普,这里或许更能体现MAGA地带的特征:收入水平较低,商店出售五金、枪支和快餐。放眼望去,一条休闲裤都找不到。

美国市场正在分化,为什么MAGA经济能蓬勃发展?

尽管如此,将共和党与落后联系在一起的观点与数据不符。即便是尤巴市这样的地方,也比以往发展得更好,整个红州地区的实力也相当雄厚。如果说民主党控制着美国三分之二的GDP,那共和党仍掌握着约10万亿美元的经济体量,这能使他们成为全球第三大经济体(见图一)。看过《胜利之光》的人都知道,美国各地都有大手笔的人。汽车经销商巴迪·加里蒂就是典型的MAGA富人代表。他虽然没富裕到拥有私人飞机,也没时尚到参加大都会艺术博物馆慈善晚宴,但他的银行存款依旧丰厚。

从“软”数据和“硬”数据中都可以看出,MAGA经济与民主党经济之间的差距越来越大。调查显示,共和党人和民主党人现在生活在不同的现实中。总统大选前,50%的民主党人认为经济正在好转,而在共和党人中,这一比例仅为6%。如今,持相同观点的民主党人降至8%,而共和党人则升至49%。这种党派分歧愈发显著。这一点看看按党派划分的通胀预期差距就知道了(见图二)。

图二


官方数据显示,消费者的口味正沿着党派路线分化。以蓝州纽约和红州怀俄明为例,自20世纪90年代以来,蓝州的人们在典型的蓝色商品和服务上支出更多,而红州的人们在红色商品和服务上支出更多。纽约人热衷于外出就餐,在公共交通上的支出也大幅增加。相比之下,怀俄明州的人在车辆零部件和养老院等可能与更年长、更保守群体相关的事物上的支出比过去更多。

不仅仅是消费问题,MAGA地区和蓝州的经济表现也日益分化。他们对新冠第一波疫情的反应也截然不同。红州的经济活动降幅仅为蓝州的一半,当地人对病毒的恐惧程度较低。这种分化是长期趋势的结果。2008年前后,民主党和共和党各县GDP增长率的差异急剧扩大。此后,这一差异一直保持在两倍左右。过去,红区经济好时,蓝区通常也会蓬勃发展。但如今不再是这样了。

双方经济分道扬镳,部分原因在于产业结构的变化。我们分析了美国各县的工作和工资数据。随着时间的推移,2024年投票给民主党的地区在知识密集型经济活动中的占比越来越高。1993年,共和党各县雇员薪酬中来自“信息”行业(包括软件等)的比例与其他地方大致相同。

现在,这一比例比平均水平低30%,而对制造业的依赖程度则有所上升。总体来看,民主党和共和党地区的就业模式出现了20%的差异,这种差异可以用“区位商”(location quotients)来衡量,它能反映各行业就业分布的差异程度。

尽管如此,今天仍有很多“巴迪·加里蒂”式的人物。2024年,年收入超过100万美元的美国人中,有47%居住在支持特朗普的州,这一比例从2014年的43%上升到了现在的水平。低收入人群的收入也在增长,人口增长也很强劲。

MAGA经济中有很多大型企业,这些企业很少被自由派接触到。尤巴市就有温科超市(WinCo),感觉像是好市多(Costco)的山寨版,还有售卖牛仔靴的靴子农场。看福克斯新闻的人收入相对较低,然而在过去一年里,该公司的股价却一路飙升。

另一个例子是,尤巴城的意大利连锁餐厅橄榄园(Olive Garden)。舆观(YouGov)2023-2024年的民调显示,最受共和党人欢迎的餐饮是,提供木制摇椅和南方菜系的饼干桶(Cracker Barrel),其次是橄榄园。

虽然橄榄园的意面可能不是家里做的味道,但它依然很受欢迎。经营这家连锁店的达登公司(Darden),股票价格在过去五年里几乎翻了三倍。

这些趋势在美国各地都有所体现。我们与知名基金管理公司的基金经理吴凯,调查收集了30家被共和党或民主党看好的上市公司。这一过程难免有不严谨之处:没有一项民意调查能涵盖所有公司。

最终,共和党的篮子里装有约翰迪尔、福克斯和哈雷戴维森等公司,而民主党的篮子里则有埃齐(Etsy)、露露乐蒙、来福车(Lyft)等企业。最近的市场动荡沉重打击了共和党的篮子。然而,在过去十年里,共和党篮子的股东回报,包括股息在内,远远超过了民主党篮子(见图三)。

图三

为什么MAGA公司似乎表现更好?或许是因为他们不搞政治正确那一套。比如Point Bridge America First的基金,股票代码是MAGA,仅包含支持共和党的企业;而Democratic Large-Cap Core Fund,股票代码为 DEMZ,专门投资向民主党提供大笔捐款的公司。

从2020年底开始,MAGA的股价就一直吊打DEMZ。高盛银行构建了一个股票指数,包含那些可能从共和党关键政策中受益的公司,比如石油行业中的公司。在过去十年中,这些公司的股价轻松跑赢大盘。

但现在MAGA经济前途未卜。特朗普的关税提高了进口零部件的成本,这将损害制造业。哈雷戴维森(Harley-Davidson)就成了外国政客报复的理想目标。

不过另一方面,包括佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州在内的共和党州仍在吸引国内移民。由于当地消费者信心强劲,可以预见MAGA地区的消费支出会好于民主党占优的地方,这种经济并不仅仅依赖“我的枕头”这一类产品。

My immigrant parents attended my Yale graduation. Seeing them on the Ivy League campus for the first time was surprisingly moving.

 编者:像所有移民致敬。 My immigrant parents never visited me while I was a student at Yale, but they came to my graduation. They didn't fit in wit...