President Donald Trump’s speech at the 2020 UN General Assembly

 It is my profound honor to address the United Nations General Assembly 75 years after the end of World War II and the founding of the United Nations, we are once again, engaged in a great global struggle. We have waged a fierce battle against the invisible enemy, the China virus, which has claimed countless lives in 188 countries. In the United States, we launched the most aggressive mobilization since the second world war, we rapidly produced a record supply of ventilators, creating a surplus that allowed us to share them with friends and partners all around the globe. We pioneered lifesaving treatments, reducing our fatality rate 85% since April. Thanks to our efforts, three vaccines are in the final stage of clinical trials. We are mass producing them in advance so they can be delivered immediately upon arrival, we will distribute a vaccine. We will defeat the virus. We will end the pandemic and we will enter a new era of unprecedented prosperity, cooperation and peace.

President Trump: (04:37)
As we pursue this bright future, we must hold accountable the nation, which unleashed this plague onto the world, China. In the earliest days of the virus, China locked down travel domestically while allowing flights to leave China and infect the world. China condemned my travel ban on their country. Even as they canceled domestic flights and locked citizens in their homes, the Chinese government and the World Health Organization, which is virtually controlled by China, falsely declared that there was no evidence of human to human transmission. Later they falsely said people without symptoms would not spread the disease, the United Nations must hold China accountable for their actions. In addition, every year, China dumps millions and millions of tons of plastic and trash into the oceans, over fishes other countries waters, destroys vast swaths of coral reef and admits more toxic mercury into the atmosphere than any country, anywhere in the world.

President Trump: (05:48)
China’s carbon emissions are nearly twice what the US has and it’s rising fast. By contrast, after I withdrew from the one sided Paris Climate Accord, last year, America reduced its carbon emissions by more than any country in the agreement, those who attack America’s exceptional environmental record while ignoring China’s rampant pollution are not interested in the environment. They only want to punish America and I will not stand for it. If the United Nations is to be an effective organization, it must focus on the real problems of the world. This includes terrorism, the oppression of women, forced labor, drug trafficking, human and sex trafficking, religious persecution, and the ethnic cleansing of religious minorities. America will always be a leader in human rights. My administration is advancing religious liberty, opportunity for women, the decriminalization of homosexuality, combating human trafficking and protecting unborn children. We also know that American prosperity is the bedrock of freedom and security all over the world.

President Trump: (07:04)
In three short years, we built the greatest economy in history and we are quickly doing it again. Our military has increased substantially in size. We spent $2.5 trillion over the last four years on our military. We have the most powerful military anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close. We stood up to decades of China’s trade abuses. We revitalize the NATO Alliance where other countries are now paying a much more fair share. We forged historic partnerships with Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador to stop human smuggling. We are standing with the people of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela in their righteous struggle for freedom. We withdrew from the terrible Iran nuclear deal and opposed crippling sanctions of the world’s leading state sponsor of terror. We obliterated the ISIS caliphate 100%, killed its founder and leader Al-Baghdadi and eliminated the world’s top terrorists Qasem Soleimani. This month we achieved a peace deal between Serbia and Kosovo.

President Trump: (08:17)
We reached a landmark breakthrough with two peace deals in the middle East after decades of no progress, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain all signed a historic peace agreement in the White House with many other middle Eastern countries to come. They are coming fast and they know it’s great for them, and it’s great for the world. These groundbreaking peace deals at the dawn of the new Middle East, by taking a different approach, we have achieved different outcomes, far superior outcomes. We took an approach and the approach worked. We intend to deliver more peace agreements shortly, and I have been more optimistic for the future of the region. There is no blood in the sand. Those days are hopefully over. As we speak, the United States is also working to end the war in Afghanistan. And we are bringing our troops home. America is fulfilling our destiny as peacemaker, but it is peace through strength.

President Trump: (09:16)
We are stronger now than ever before. Our weapons are at an advanced level like we’ve never had before, like frankly, we’ve never even thought of having before. And I only pray to God that we never have to use them. For decades, the same tired voices proposed the same failed solutions, pursuing global ambitions at the expense of their own people. But only when you take care of your own citizens, would you find a true basis for cooperation. As president, I have rejected the failed approaches of the past, and I am proudly putting America first, just as you should be putting your countries first. That’s okay. That’s what you should be doing. I am supremely confident that next year when we gather in person, we will be in the midst of one of the greatest years in our history, and frankly, hopefully in the history of the world. Thank you, God bless you all. God bless America. And God bless the United Nations.

联合国成立75周年：问题、挑战与质疑

 全世界蔓延的感染，自大萧条以来最严重的经济危机和气候变暖更不要提饥馑的加剧，越来越多的难民，强人领袖的疯狂排外和美中之间的新冷战。

联合国即将庆祝其1945年在二战废墟中的诞生，尽管在一长串当前全球问题及其自身面临的挑战中，庆祝可能成了怪异的措辞。

因此，对这一诞辰的纪念将是静悄悄的，不仅因为世界各国领导人无法亲自聚在一起举杯大流行让本周开始的联合国大会变成了虚拟会议。在这一世界机构成立75周年之际，它也面临着对其效力乃至地位的深刻质疑。

联合国不应该这么弱，前联合国人权事务高级专员、爱尔兰的首位女总统玛丽罗宾逊(Mary Robinson)说。

当同盟国的胜利者成立联合国之时，他们的目标是避免陷入另一场全球灾难。尽管有种种缺点，但这个被埃莉诺罗斯福(Eleanor Roosevelt)称为我们未来和平的最大希望的组织至少帮助实现了这一目标。

当展望今年的联合国大会时，秘书长安东尼奥古特雷斯(Antnio Guterres)强调了长远的眼光。他说，写进《联合国宪章》的价值观阻止了许多人担心的第三次世界大战的灾难。

尽管如此，这一机构可能从未像现在这样挣扎过。

虽然它是人道主义援助的最主要提供者，而且联合国维和人员在十几个不稳定地区执行任务，但联合国一直未能结束在叙利亚、也门或利比亚旷日持久的战争。巴以冲突的历史几乎和联合国自身的历史一样悠久。

联合国数据显示，全球被迫流离失所的人数在过去十年里翻了一番，达到8000万人。新冠时代的第一批饥荒就潜伏在世界各国的家门口，预计到今年年底，遭受严重饥馑的人数将增加近一倍，超过2.5亿人。

古特雷斯恳请全球停火以帮助抗击冠状病毒，但基本无人理睬。他呼吁为一项100亿美元的冠状病毒紧急应对计划捐款，以帮助最需要帮助的人，但截至上周，承诺捐款额只有目标的四分之一。这样的反应连不温不火都算不上了，联合国援助事务最高官员马克洛科克(Mark Lowcock)说。

联合国从75年前的50个成员国发展到如今有193个成员国和4.4万名全球工作人员，它成立之初的目的是为了提供一个论坛，让各国可以不分大小，都相信自己的声音是有意义的。

但其基本结构并没有赋予联合国大会这个主体机构多少实权，而是把最多的实权给了二战的战胜国英国、中国、法国、俄罗斯和美国这些常任理事国对安理会的15个理事国席位拥有否决权。安理会有权实施经济制裁，并且是唯一被允许部署军事力量的联合国实体。

似乎没有一个常任理事国愿意改变这种权力结构。结果就导致安理会在许多问题上长期陷入僵局，往往使美国不仅与中国和俄罗斯对立，还与其盟友为敌。

联合国不只是在战争和停火问题上难以取得成果。

联合国那17个旨在2030年以前消除贫困、性别偏见和文盲等不平等现象的可持续发展目标(Sustainable Development Goals)已经岌岌可危。据报道联合国的新闻网站PassBlue称，联合国监督小组《全球政策论坛》(Global Policy Forum)主席芭芭拉亚当斯(Barbara Adams)在7月的一次会议上表示，这些目标甚至在大流行出现之前就已经严重偏离轨道。

联合国资深人士都表示，多边主义即共同解决问题这个联合国宪章的宗旨日益与同一部宪章中强调的国家主权和不干涉内政的原则相冲突。

其结果往往是拖延援助或对联合国介入人道主义危机的拒绝，不管这些援助或介入是向流离失所的叙利亚人运送物资，调查缅甸罗辛亚人遭遇大屠杀的证据，还是救助委内瑞拉患病的儿童。

阿尔比安大学的政治学教授、联合国人道主义干预问题专家凯莉布思沃林(Carrie Booth Walling)表示，许多受病毒影响的国家开始向内转，对联合国及其象征的外交而言可能是个坏兆头。

目前真正令人恐惧的是多边主义的总体状况，以及世界各国政府和人民能否看到多边合作的价值，沃林说。

有专制意识的领导人的上台带来了进一步挑战。

特朗普总统经常批评联合国，他反对全球治理的概念，并不满于联合国每年大约95亿美元的预算（其中65亿美元用于维和行动），认为那是浪费。

巴西总统贾伊尔博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)称联合国人权理事会是共产主义的会场。匈牙利总理欧尔班维克托(Viktor Orban)谴责联合国保护难民的政策。菲律宾总统罗德里戈杜特地(Rodrigo Duterte)对联合国人权机构对其禁毒战争的调查表示愤怒。

根据特朗普的美国优先方针，美国打算退出世界卫生组织，特朗普批评该组织对新冠病毒的应对，称其为中国的喉舌。特朗普还放弃或削减了对联合国机构的支持，其中包括联合国人口基金、人权理事会以及援助被列为难民的巴勒斯坦人的机构。

尽管美国一直在猛烈抨击，但中国在联合国采取了行动，在经济和社会事务部、国际电信联盟和人权理事会等机构担任领导职务，以争取更多控制权。

两党研究机构新美国安全中心(Center for New American Security) 2019年5月的研究报告《人民共和国的联合国》(People s Republic of the United Nations)指出，中国在联合国的行动是为了重新定义此类机构的运作方式，使其偏离西方的民主和人权概念。

今年中国在联合国的影响力进一步扩大，虽然遭到美国反对，但中国候选人当选粮食及农业组织领导人、加入人权理事会调查员遴选小组，并成为联合国下属的一个裁决海洋法争端的法庭的法官。

中国国家主席习近平敦促下属积极参与引领全球治理体系改革。

美国驻联合国大使凯莉克拉夫特(Kelly Craft)坚称她正在与中国人对抗。例如，她上个月在接受福克斯新闻(Fox News)采访时表示，她利用安理会的一切机会提出中国的人权问题。

不过，现任和前任联合国官员说，特朗普的孤立主义行为损害了美国在联合国的影响力，尽管美国作为东道国和最大的单一捐助国仍然至关重要。他们看到了中国的胆子大了起来，在南海争议地区坚持自己的主张，在香港压制异议，在新疆拘禁100万维吾尔穆斯林，并向亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的贫困国家大举放贷。

如果美国撤出自己的牌，就给中国留下了更多空间，前联合国秘书长科菲安南(Kofi Annan)的首席演讲撰稿人爱德华莫蒂默(Edward Mortimer)说。现在，中国的行为极度强硬而挑衅，让很多国家感到担忧。

If China loses a future war, entropy could be imminent

 What happens if China engages in a great power conflict and loses? Will the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the society survive a horrifying defeat?

The People’s Liberation Army last fought a massive-scale war during the invasion of Vietnam in 1979, which was a failed operation to punish Vietnam for toppling the Khmer Rouge regime of Cambodia. Since 1979, the PLA has been engaged in shelling Vietnam at different occasions and involved in other border skirmishes, but not fought a full-scale war.

In the last decades, China increased its defense spending and modernized its military, including advanced air defenses and cruise missiles; fielded advanced military hardware; and built a high sea navy from scratch. But there is significant uncertainty of how the Chinese military will perform.

Modern warfare is integration, joint operations, command, control, intelligence, and the ability to understand and execute the ongoing, all-domain fight. War is a complex machinery with low margins of error and can have devastating outcomes for the ill-prepared. It does not matter if you are against or for the U.S. military operations the last three decades; the fact is that the prolonged conflict and engagement have made the U.S. experienced. The Chinese inexperience, in combination with unrealistic expansionist ambitions, can be the downfall of the regime. Dry swimmers maybe train the basics, but they are never great swimmers.

Although it may look like a creative strategy for China to harvest trade secrets and intellectual property as well as put developing countries in debt to gain influence, I would question how rational the Chinese apparatus is. The repeated visualization of the Han nationalist cult appears as a strength amid the youth rallying behind President Xi Jinping’s regime, but it is also a significant weakness. The weakness is blatantly visible in the Chinese need for surveillance and population control to maintain stability — surveillance and repression that is so encompassing in the daily life of the Chinese population that German DDR security services appear to have been amateurs.

Chinese military calls US biggest threat to world peace

All chauvinist cults will implode over time because the unrealistic assumptions add up, and so will the sum of all delusional ideological decisions. Winston Churchill knew after Nazi Germany declared war on the United States in December 1941 that the Allies would prevail and win the war. Nazi Germany did not have the gross domestic product or manpower to sustain the war on two fronts, but the Nazis did not care because they were irrational and driven by hateful ideology. Nazi Germany had just months before it invaded the massive Soviet Union to create Lebensraum and feed an urge to reestablish German-Austrian dominance in Eastern Europe. The Nazis unilaterally declared war on the United States. The rationale for the declaration of war was ideology, a worldview that demanded expansion and conflict, even if Germany was strategically inferior and eventually lost the war.

China’s belief that it can be a global authoritarian hegemony is likely on the same journey. China is today driven by its flavor or expansionist ideology that seeks conflict without being strategically able. It is worth noting that not a single major country is China’s ally.

The Chinese supremacist propaganda works in peacetime, holding massive rallies and hailing Mao Zedong as a military genius, and some of its people sing, dance and wave red banners, but will that grip remain if the PLA loses? In case of a failed military campaign, is the Chinese population, with the one-child policy, ready for casualties, humiliation and failure? Will the authoritarian grip — with facial recognition, informers, digital surveillance and an army that primarily functions during peacetime as a force for crowd control — survive a crushing defeat?

If the regime loses its grip, the wrath of the masses may be unleashed from decades of repression. A country of the size of China — with a history of cleavages and civil wars, and that has a suppressed, diverse population and socioeconomic disparity — can be catapulted into Balkanization after a defeat. In the past, China has had long periods of internal fragmentation and weak central government.

The United States reacts differently to failure. The United States is as a country far more resilient than we might assume from watching the daily news. If the United States loses a war, the president gets the blame, but there will still be a presidential library in his/her name. There is no revolution.

There is an assumption lingering over today’s public debate that China has a strong hand, advanced artificial intelligence and the latest technology, and that it is an uber-able superpower.

I am not convinced.

During the last decade, the countries in the Indo-Pacific region that seeks to hinder the Chinese expansion of control, influence and dominance have increasingly formed stronger relationships. The strategic scale is in the democratic countries' favor. If China, still driven by ideology, pursues conflict at a large scale, it is likely the end of the communist dictatorship. In my personal view, we should pay more attention to the humanitarian risks, the ripple effects and the dangers of nukes in a civil war in case the Chinese regime implodes after a failed future war.

Jan Kallberg is a research scientist at the Army Cyber Institute at West Point and an assistant professor at the U.S. Military Academy. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Army Cyber Institute at West Point, the U.S. Military Academy, the Defense Department or the U.S. government.

没有画上句号的增长奇迹

 文 | 刘鹤  中央政治局委员 国务院副总理

　　本文摘编自中国经济出版社于2008年出版的《中国经济50人看三十年》，原文题目为《没有画上句号的增长奇迹》。

当我看到美联储不断降息和对金融体系注入大量资金之后，我感到了真正的危机，因为挽救的对象是本应受到惩罚的不道德行为。在全球化曲折发展的形势下，中国的确要建立起一道安全的防火墙，这就是真正扩大内需，稳步提高中等收入者比重，不断加强教育，推动城市化的有序发展，使中国成为市场规模巨大的创新型国家。

　　接到写作邀请，我本能地想到两个题目，一是从中国宏观经济周期变化的描述中看经济发展，二是中国经济和社会结构变化的客观描述，因为这都与我多年的工作密切相关。但又发现这些题目的技术性太强，希望找到一个全景性的话题，可以归纳对过去改革开放的认识和对未来发展的展望。最近我到上海、广东、山东、辽宁和甘肃等地区做了一次关于发展路径的专题调查研究，了解不同地区发生巨大变化的原因，认识不同地区未来面临的各种挑战，在调研过程中，脑海中突然浮现这一题目，觉得这个题目让人兴奋，足以概括对以往和未来增长的主要看法。

　　增长的奇迹和六个成功因子

　　改革初期，邓小平同志决然否定了“文化大革命”的错误，结束以阶级斗争为纲的政治路线，国家的工作重点转移到了以经济建设为中心。在那时，世界上的大部分人没有意识到这项历史性决策的非凡意义，甚至到了今天，还有人怀念“文化大革命”带来的平均主义贫困和那时享有的精神特权，但是中国已经向前迈出了不可逆转的一大步。

　　在三十年时间之内，中国经济发生了巨大变化。2007年中国的国内生产总值达到24.6万亿人民币，平均增长高达9.75%，经济总量是改革初期的14.9倍，国际贸易量超过2.1万亿美元，是改革初期的104倍，人均国内生产总值由1978年的381元人民币上升到2007年的1.8万多元，约合2500美元，农村贫困人口由2.5亿减少到约2000万人，人均预期寿命从20世纪50年代的四十多岁提高到今天的72岁，中国经济在世界经济中的位次也从第10位一路跃升到第4位。奇迹不仅发生在北京、上海、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲，同样的增长奇迹在全国很多地区都先后出现，即便在甘肃的定西地区，这个被联合国有关专家定义为不适合人类居住的贫困地方，也发生了巨大变化，其经济总量在过去30年增长了10倍，城镇居民人均收入增长了8.4倍，农民人均纯收入增长约6.8倍。无论从哪一个角度衡量，都可以说，中国创造了人类社会大国经济增长的奇迹。

　　总结发展现象的永恒主题是，为什么有些国家和地区由穷变富，以及如何实现由穷变富，怎样防止富国由盛到衰？发展似乎是有规律的历史现象，但发展的原因有时让人困惑，发展的结果往往出乎意料。从中国变化的实际出发，我们看到，准备转轨的巨大经济体在最初经历了危机和重创，受重大历史事件影响，对传统思想观念批判和要求变化的强烈社会共识逐步形成，这使得发动改革的新思想获得了光电一般的传播速度。伟大的历史人物出现，正确的重大决策使得思想解冻成为发展的实践。在正确的战略方向指引下，成功的案例和各类激励因素不断积累，相互激发，铸就着不可逆转的发展趋势，持续和超常规的增长现象成为标志性的特征。中国经济发展取得成绩的原因众说纷纭，有着完全不同的解释。

　　从大的方面来说，中国走出了有中国特色的社会主义市场经济道路。在解释成绩的原因时，我认为有几点是非常重要的：

　　1、在反思文化革命教训基础上形成的发展共识

　　历史反复证明，重大的危机推动形成新的社会共识，好的社会共识是历史进步的强大推动力量。中国改革开放之前是十年“文革动乱”，那时中国经济已经走到崩溃边缘。如果没有经历文化革命的灾难，没有对“文化大革命”灾难的反思，就不可能有今天中国的经济增长。正是“文化大革命”的反面教育作用，中国人认识到了“以阶级斗争为纲”理论的错误和荒谬，认识到了闭关锁国的严重恶果和悲剧结局，也认识到了作为一个人所经历的可怕危机和噩梦。摆脱贫困和结束动乱，是全民族的强烈愿望，推动改革和开放，是全民族深埋在心中的强烈期盼。这就是中国改革和发展的社会共识。邓小平同志的正确决策代表了中国人民的强烈要求。

　　需要看到，经历“文化大革命”一代人的痛苦磨难和深刻思考，为改革开放准备了强大的精神动力和价值认同，也准备了充足的人力资本资源。全民族对经济利益与政治利益、创新与激励、权威与民主、中国与世界等问题的理性认识，则是历史给予中国极其宝贵的国家财富。和历史上大部分崛起的国家一样，中国经历了危机催生复兴的历史过程。比俄罗斯幸运的是，中国领导人在关键的时刻选准了经济起飞的战略方向。

　　2、坚定不移地对外开放，加入全球产业分工和市场体系

　　中国改革之初，恰是国际上一些国家经济走向全球经济的转折时期。发达国家的制造业已经无力承受高福利的成本负担，大量产业需要转移，世界比任何时候都需要中国。中国已经具备良好的基础和诸多条件。只要坚决开放，就可以纳入国际分工体系，关键在于决策。这就是当时世界的长期供求格局。

　　中央政府坚定地放弃了闭关锁国路线，幸运地抓住全球化加快发展的历史机会，毫不犹豫地加入到全球化行列中，把对外开放作为基本国策。中国加入全球化的过程是渐进和务实的。从开放思想和理论的传播、新产品的引进、对外贸易的扩大和利用外资的拓展，然后到全面对外开放和加入世界贸易组织。开放使中国及时利用了人类社会发展经济最好的实践成果，享受到全球分工的巨大利益。中国加入全球化的分工体系也是世界的福音。

　　更为重要的是，对外开放对旧的计划体制起到冲击、震撼和瓦解的重要作用。在这一进程中，历代领导人的正确决策起到决定性的作用，而以往开放的历史记忆、海外华人、国际研究机构和企业家的智慧、一批学者的探索功不可没，沿海地区一批富有冒险精神和勇于实践的政府官员和企业家则扮演了重要角色。中国建国后打下的基础和巨大的劳动力供给则起到支柱作用。以开放促改革促发展，是中国发展的重要结论。

　　3、坚持市场化的改革方向

　　承认和保护个人和企业的经济利益追求，重视发挥市场竞争的作用，重视保护产权，发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用和政府的导向作用，是中国渐进式改革的主要实践。中国坚持自己的特色，没有盲目照搬西方模式，高度重视发挥市场机制的基础作用，但也认识到市场机制发育的长期性和目前存在的不完善。如果从大的方面回顾，改革最为核心的变化是承认物质利益追求和保护合法的经济利益。这是从80年代安徽和四川农村改革实行联产承包责任制开始的，从农村改革进入国有企业的改革，直到处理中央和地方关系的税制改革，以及最近推出的金融体制改革，凡是改革成功之处，都在这一最基本的问题上坚持了市场制度的信条。

　　以渐进的方法引入竞争机制，并且逐步健全适合国情的产权制度、信用制度，是中国的独特之处，在学院经济学家围绕产权和竞争激烈争论着的非此即彼或非黑即白的区域之间，中国找到了现实存在的灰色区间，在市场化这一根本问题上走出了迂回和有特色的道路。值得提出的是，中国在处理政府和市场关系上非常务实，因为两者最终都是为发展服务的。在发展的初期，市场体系并不存在，企业家阶层也软弱无力，政府在培育市场和促进发展方面发挥了重要作用。当经济发展到一定阶段之后，政府和市场这两只手的关系逐步发生变化，企业家阶层开始成长并且发挥重要作用。这是具有制高点意义的问题，各个高增长的地区都有一个善于引导的政府，虽然发挥作用的方式很难用同一个公式表述。改革后的税收制度使地方政府之间存在竞争关系，明智的地方政府为了实现增长，更加重视发挥企业家的作用，这是诠释中国出现高增长的一个重要原因。但是，今后的挑战可能恰恰来源于这个环节。

　　4、保持政治的稳定性，发挥制度优势

　　政治和经济从来没法分开，经济学从来都是政治经济学。从改革后历代中国领导人都把政治稳定作为经济发展的前提条件。中国的经济基础不可能承受脱离实际的政治风波，中国历史、文化和其他初始条件决定着不可能走西方式的政治民主化路径。正确的道路是逐步发展中国特色的民主政治体制，加快实现依法治国。政府重视发挥国家发展战略的导向作用和维护宏观经济的稳定，重视发挥中国政治制度集中力量办大事的优势，当然这里肯定的是在市场机制发挥基础性作用前提下的合理政府行为。

　　各级政府认识到，在“文化大革命”中已经证明失败的路线已经没有必要再重新论证，重要的是务实地、符合规律地推动经济发展和提高人民的生活水平，使越来越多的人共同富裕起来和享有全面发展的权利。当然，当经济发展达到一定阶段之后，转变政府职能、加快行政管理体制改革和民主的要求会日益加强，这是未来发展的崭新课题。

　　5、充分利用了国家具备的各种比较优势

　　亚当斯密在《国富论》中指出，“分工是文明的起点”。全球化背景下欠发达国家发展战略的基本问题，是在全球市场分工体系中找到和发挥比较优势。在经济全球化条件下中国的后发比较优势明显存在，主要包括：工业化加速产生的巨大市场规模优势、劳动力无限供给条件下的二元结构落差优势、高储蓄率、国际资本流动等。这些和中国改革开放政策相结合，成为巨大的增长动能。

　　中国幅员辽阔，不同地方都有自己的比较优势，从地理位置优势、劳动力素质到产业布局优势和成本优势。比较优势从来都是一个动态现象，发展初期的不利条件随着发展阶段的变化会逐步变成新的比较优势，这是快速发展大国中比较普遍的区域发展现象。如果相对落后地区找到了适合发挥自己比较优势的商业模式和具备融入市场体系能力的话，这些地区就开始进入经济快速增长的轨道。深入分析就会发现，中国每个成功的省、甚至各个成功的地区都有自己独特的发展模式，其独特之处在于激励经济发展的不同变量作出了极不相同的贡献，但在本质上又有相似之处。

　　6、文化底蕴发挥着逐步加大的支撑作用

　　经济增长表面的决定因素是资本、劳动、技术和地理优势，但是最终起作用的是文化和习惯的遗传。中国古老的文化传统在改革开始就起到重要作用，主要是按照循序渐进的传统和中庸文化特点摸索改革路径。“和为贵”的思想和包容多样的风格自然地和各类经济因素结合起来，随着经济发展而产生不断扩大的作用，成为看不见的又时时可以感觉到的国家软实力。

　　在中国不同地区成功的背后，通常的解释变量离不开资本形成、产权保护、企业家精神或政府政策、技术创新或生产组织创新、重大的外部机会等经典因素，但如果追根问底，为什么在这里而不是在那里发生了如此这般的变化时，解释变量往往要回到历史文化因素中去寻觅。上海、广东和山东发展模式明显不同，这是地理文化和历史渊源的区别。一些西方汉学家在研究中国时指出的历史沉重记忆和文化沉淀，在发展初期似乎是阻力或包袱，但当发展达到一定水平和发展理念发生根本变化后，传统的中华文化与全球化的新趋势结合，则转化成为巨大的发展动力，现在的确需要对中国优秀文化的认祖归宗。

　　总的来看，中国出现的增长奇迹是适应外部环境变化、凝聚社会共识、调整激励结构、发挥生产要素价格相对比较优势和文化潜在力量的结果，其道理直白而深奥。在这部分，不应忽视和没有深入分析的有三个问题：过去30年全球化过程中出现的大国经济失衡现象和相对比较优势变化的描述、中国经济非均衡的特点和广义上的价格扭曲对增长的正面和负面影响、几次经济周期变化中不同发展阶段的改革特点。这三点都极为重要，但在较短时间内没有进入细节描述和定量分析，也有很多似是而非的判断。最后决定在这次写作过程中“抓大放小”，这一点想特别向读者加以说明。

　　未来的趋势和三个长期课题

　　中国的增长奇迹没有划上历史的句号。已经取得的成绩让人振奋，但它毕竟是阶段性的历史成果，作为向全面小康社会迈进和向中高收入水平跃升的国家，中国经济发展面临巨大的机会。按照党的十七大对全面建设小康社会提出的新要求，到2020年，中国的人均国内生产总值将达到或超过5000美元，发展的协调性大大增强，国内市场规模全面扩大，社会和谐程度逐步提高，发展前景是非常乐观的。但是中国发展也存在诸多不确定性，发展前景甚至存在两种可能性。站在这历史十字路口，发展中国家走势分化的历史教训需要深刻汲取，对中国未来新的挑战需要准确界定。

　　写到这里的时候，不由想起了一件往事。三年前法国驻华大使高毅先生约我共进晚餐，那时康德苏先生刚从国际货币基金组织退职。康德苏回忆了一件往事。他在任时，要迎接新任美国总统克林顿到国际货币基金做惯例拜访。从白宫到国际货币基金有十五分钟车程。康德苏苦思冥想，试图提出一个让新任美国总统在十五分钟回答不完的问题，以避免路途无话可说的尴尬。他问的是，总统先生，您最近经常思考的几个问题中，哪一个问题不断出现？克林顿思考片刻后说，我想是中国，如果中国实现城市化和轿车进入家庭，中国和世界会发生哪些变化？于是克林顿开始了他擅长的推理。果然直到终点新总统的话还没说完。

　　克林顿思考的问题是，如果中国发生巨大变化，美国应当如何应对？他显然是站在全球视角考虑问题的。今天当中国已经成为大国开放经济体之后，我们显然需要站在新的高度，树立全球视野，做些更长期的展望。我们的确需要归纳一下，在我们这个十几亿人口的东方大国实现现代化，将会面临哪些主要的机会和挑战。经济发展的历史往往有惊人的相似之处，但未来中国的变化不可能是以往任何国家和自身历史的重复和再现。和早期发达国家不同，中国面临的挑战是复合型而不是线性的，随着时间推移，挑战不会简单化而是更加复杂，但机会将伴随挑战同时出现。

　　在诸多反复讨论过的课题中，我想特别提到三个长期问题：

　　1、国际经济格局的变化和中国经济的定位

　　无论世界经济格局如何变化，全球化进程都在加快，中国作为大国开放经济与世界经济的互动性都在全面加强，但是目前的世界和中国与30年前已经大不相同。当中国决定对外开放时，世界流行的是多边自由贸易体制、资本自由流动和放松管制，劳动和资本相对价格的变化使全球制造业资本需要找到新出路，中国似乎不需要定位就可以凭借比较优势自然融入全球分工体系。

　　但是今天，暂且不谈政治因素，世界经济生产要素的长期供求格局已发生了很大变化。一方面，新兴市场经济国家的崛起使对初级产品的需求大幅增加，同时，受资源储量、土地面积、地缘政治等因素影响，初级产品供给出现价格刚性制约，这使得初级产品价格变化进入了结构性加速上升期，依赖于少数大国最终市场的亚洲模式受到挑战；另一方面，不断增加的全球生产能力和全球市场空间狭小的矛盾突出，这使得自由贸易体制在越来越多的贸易保护主义冲击下已经残缺不全。另外，发达国家虚拟经济的发展，使投机式的发展模式和急功近利式的公司治理结构不断升级，全球金融体系变得十分脆弱，发展中国家特别是经济结构加快升级的国家不断面临金融危机的挑战。更严重的问题是，全球气候变暖成为不争的现实，这个问题解决不好，将引发水源断流、难民剧增、粮食供应不足等涉及人类社会生存的基本问题，这使传统发展模式难以为继。

　　在复杂国际环境下，中国同时面临自己独特的课题。从宏观格局看，国内储蓄和消费高度失衡使得过大生产能力高度依赖国际市场，这种增长格局的可持续性在新的国际环境下已经不复存在。特别是最近几年，中国的外贸依存度达到约70%的水平，风险和成本都在明显扩大。从长期供给条件来看，过度外向和重化工化的发展模式使中国面临着前所未有的资源和环境压力。石油和部分农产品等初级产品的进口是长期现象，水和土地已经成为最稀缺的自然资源。劳动力成本上升速度加快而拐点出现得过早。

　　总之，国际市场狭小、初级产品价格上升、国内成本优势变化、资源环境压力加大，这些新的长期趋势说明，传统的粗放增长方式已经难以为继，要求中国在全球经济准确界定未来的动态比较优势，更重视熊彼特增长模式和罗默增长模式的研究，充分发挥知识和人力资本作用，创造条件在国际分工体系中扮演新的合适角色。我的基本看法是，在未来我们要做好两件大事：（1）中国要加快调整储蓄和消费的关系，逐步成为内生性的需求大国，为全球提供巨大市场。（2）要促进产业结构升级，加快技术进步和提高投资效率，提升服务业的比重，使产业结构和国内资源禀赋相匹配。

　　在新的环境下，中国要反思赶超型的工业化路径，努力走出一条依靠国内市场需求拉动、建立新的产业体系和形成创新能力的路径，同时用和平方式与资源供给国家形成互惠互利的战略分工。

　　2、城市化模式和生产力空间布局

　　在工业化、市场化、城市化和国际化这四个趋势中，城市化是最核心也是最复杂的命题。主要原因是，城市化是工业化的载体、市场化的平台和国际化的舞台。大量农村剩余劳动力转向城市成为市民，是消除二元结构的根本出路，也是扩大国内需求的主要依托。城市化派生的投资和消费需求是拉动经济增长的主要动力。更重要的是，正确的城市化道路选择是实现国家粮食安全的保证，我国人多地少和缺水的基本国情，决定了在城市和农村同时实现适度规模经济效益和深化分工，是实现可持续发展的客观选择。

　　记得1993年齐怀远部长带队参加达沃斯论坛，他派我参加经济政要的圆桌讨论。我是职位最低但是被提问最多的官员。会后，新加坡总统李光耀走到我身旁，用一口广东音很重的国语对我说：“刘鹤，中国最大的挑战是城市化，10亿人口的城市化足以改变世界，但是你们的压力将是史无前例的。”李光耀说的是正确的。围绕城市化和大规模人口转移，过去30年我们遇到多少复杂的挑战和难题？粮食安全、农民利益、土地制度、户籍制度、社保制度、转移劳动力素质、政府考核方法、财税制度、社会稳定甚至人权问题。2008年初的南方雪灾表明，由于缺乏区域性的大城市所造成的大规模劳动力长距离流动性就业，是造成雪灾发生后交通堵塞的结构性原因。中国的基本国情使得生产力布局的长期供求关系远离均衡点，城市化模式的战略选择必须是国家行为。但是，自然经济思维和利益分割的实践仍然占据主导地位，在过去30年，我们大约转移了不到3亿的农村剩余劳动力，但却占用了将近10亿亩的农田，城市化付出的代价十分昂贵。在城市化模式选择上的犹豫，使得分工、专业化协作、规模经济、节约资源、保护环境和生态等观念的实践都面临很大困难。

　　回顾近300年现代化的历史，世界经历了三次城市化浪潮，第一次是大城市的兴起，这是工业化和分工深化的结果，我们没有赶上这次浪潮。第二次是小城市的扩散，这是治理大城市病的自然要求，我们经历了这一次浪潮，但是对此有所误解。目前全球开始了第三轮城市化浪潮，主要特点是通过强化大城市与中小城市的交通和网络联系（city-region and net-working），全面提高大城市的国际竞争力。这个趋势在伦敦、巴黎、柏林、法兰克福、阿姆斯特丹、东京、大阪等城市开始起步，大城市获得了更加重要的地位。

　　面对这些新趋势和国内城市化进程挑战诸多的背景，从战略上，我们需要认清潮流，从我国人多地少的实际出发，按照建立主体功能区和特大城市圈的思路，从资源环境承载能力和生产力合理布局的角度做好城市群发展规划，对混乱的城市格局做一次整合，以大城市为核心，整合中小城市和小城镇，相应做好政府事权划分、财税、住房、教育、社会保障、土地利用等制度设计，培育和创造符合中国在全球经济定位的大城市圈。从战术上，需要接受发达国家和部分发展中国家“大城市病”的教训，审慎和负责地处理各类现实问题，在建立城市功能区、接受大量转移劳动力和治理大城市带来的噪音、空气和水污染、交通堵塞以及解决社会难题等方面走出符合国情的新路径。

　　3、提高中等收入者比重和加强教育

　　经济增长、合理分配和可持续性是发展概念的基本内涵。在收入分配问题上，提高中等收入者比重则是高层面的终极目标。改革开放三十年，我们已经实现了一部分人和地区先富起来的阶段性目标，一个人口数量逐步扩大的中等收入阶层正在出现。但是无论从哪个角度衡量，这个阶层的比重还是偏低，可能不足20%，难以支撑国内消费需求扩大和社会长治久安。为扩大“有恒产、有恒心”的中等收入阶层创造条件，是实现国家繁荣稳定的基本保障，也是中国从发展中国家进入发达国家的重要标志。因此我认为，党的十七大对全面建设小康社会的新要求中，最重要的是中等收入者比重占多数的目标。国际经验也表明，建立好的社会阶层结构至关重要，但是难度超过实现高速增长，因为增长的相关变量是快变量，而中等收入者稳步上升需要创造的政治、经济、社会和文化条件更多，有很多是慢变量，在提升中等收入者比重这个过程中甚至充满陷阱。

　　国内一直讨论拉美教训问题。拉美的情况比较复杂，为此我到智利和阿根廷做过专题调研，我发现国内对拉美教训有很多误解。所谓的“拉美教训”并不是被人们轻信的结论和判断，全球化、市场化、城市化不是拉美教训的元凶。拉美国家真正的教训是，在军政府向所谓的民主政府转化过程中，政府普遍采取了民粹主义的办法拉选票，放弃财政纪律和产权保护原则，做出各种超出政府支付能力的福利承诺，致使通货膨胀加剧和外债高筑，造成政治和经济周期的大起大落和两极分化。更为深层次的是，因为缺乏中等收入者阶层的理性制约，才导致了拉美民粹主义的严重情结。在拉美访问时，智利的杰出研究人员们向我介绍，总结以往教训，发现忽视教育是造成中等收入者比重低的根本原因。教育不足使低技能人员大量失业，造成贫困的再生且恶性循环。但随后发现，国家投入大量资金发展公共教育，而富人享受的私立教育质量超过公立教育，教育质量差别又转化为巨大的收入差别。而造成教育质量差别的原因，是公立教师激励不足。他们不无感慨地对我说，一旦进入两极分化的陷阱，要花几十年的时间才能走出来。他们的话是意味深长的。

　　十分清楚，使广大低收入者转变为有固定职业、有房产和努力向上的中产者，是避免中等国家陷阱的战略举措，是实现社会和谐的重要内容，实现这个目标不是靠补贴和社会同情所能解决的，有时为了劳动者近期利益做的好事反而不利于其长期利益，因为这些做法往往使劳动者把其低收入的原因归于社会，而忽视了自身的努力。最重要的是使得劳动者具备适应市场竞争和全球环境变化的能力和韧性。亚当斯密在《国富论》中说过：“一个哲学家和一个街头搬运夫的差别，似乎不是由于天赋、而是由于习惯、风俗和教育产生的”（当时哲学家处于社会顶层）。改变落后的习惯，加强教育和提高教育质量，是减少贫困和提高中等收入者比重的根本出路。在改革开放初期，没有受过教育的劳动力照样可以在东莞等地找到出路，但是今天和今后的环境将完全不同。

　　安东尼吉登斯在《现代性与自我认同》一书中指出：“现代性的特征之一，在于外延性和意向性两极之间不断增长的交互关联：一极是全球化的诸多影响，另一极是个人素质的改变”。我们的教育要使个人心理和能力素质适应全球化的变化，应当更加强调两个不可分割的内容，首先是价值观念的教育，使受教育者具备仁爱之心，敬畏和感激大自然。加强心理教育和引导，使社会公众在经济结构和社会转型加速时期逐步具备心理平衡能力，从自满、焦虑、抱怨、浮躁、急功近利等不利于社会和谐的情节中得以超脱。其次是增强适应国际市场竞争能力的教育和培训，其内容服从国家总体战略定位的调整。这是减少收入差距和适应全球化发展挑战的基础，也是形成国家创新能力的保障。知识界应该增强社会责任，激发劳动者的创业之心，而不是制造对市场机制的恐惧。从国家全球战略角度看问题，发达国家的老龄化和人口萎缩同时出现，人力资源即将成为短缺资源，人力资本是未来国家竞争力的核心。因此，我们要更加相信教育和重视教育。创新是教育的函数，教育发展好了，创新成果将接踵而至。最近，比尔盖茨提出一个很有意思的观点，他认为美国唯一的优势是通过开放的教育吸引了全球的优秀人才，转化为创新的优势。目前，我们的确看到了发达国家培养的人才向我国回流的趋势，我们需要抓住这个机会，在发达国家享受中国人口红利之后，享受一次发达国家提供的教育红利。

　　美国次贷危机发生后，我一直密切关注国际经济环境的变化，当我看到美联储不断降息和对金融体系注入大量资金之后，我感到了真正的危机，因为挽救的对象是本应受到惩罚的不道德行为。在全球化曲折发展的形势下，中国的确要建立起一道安全的防火墙，这就是真正扩大内需，稳步提高中等收入者比重，不断加强教育，推动城市化的有序发展，使中国成为市场规模巨大的创新型国家。这不是门罗主义或孤立主义，而是在开放前提下应对全球化挑战的理性选择。

UN assembly approves pandemic resolution; US, Israel object

 UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a wide-ranging resolution on tackling the coronavirus pandemic Friday over objections from the United States and Israel, which protested a successful last-minute Cuban amendment that strongly urged countries to oppose any unilateral economic, financial or trade sanctions.

The 193-member world body adopted the resolution by a vote of 169-2, with Ukraine and Hungary abstaining. It was a strong show of unity by the U.N.’s most representative body, though many countries had hoped for adoption by consensus.

The resolution, which is not legally binding, is the third and most extensive adopted by the General Assembly. A resolution adopted April 2 recognized “the unprecedented effects” of the pandemic and called for “intensified international cooperation to contain, mitigate and defeat” the new coronavirus. A Mexico-sponsored resolution approved April 20 urged global action to rapidly scale up development, manufacturing and access to medicine, vaccines and medical equipment to confront the pandemic.

In Friday’s resolution, the General Assembly says the pandemic poses “one of the greatest global challenges in the history of the United Nations,” and calls for “intensified international cooperation and solidarity to contain, mitigate and overcome the pandemic and its consequences.”

The resolution urges U.N. member states “to enable all countries to have unhindered timely access to quality, safe, efficacious and affordable diagnosis, therapeutics, medicines and vaccines … as well as equipment for the COVID-19 response.”

And it recognizes “the role of extensive immunization against COVID-19 as a global public good for health in preventing, containing and stopping transmission in order to bring the pandemic to an end, once safe, quality, efficacious, effective, accessible and affordable vaccines are available.”

Afghan Ambassador Adela Raz, who coordinated the drafting of the resolution with Croatian envoy Ivan Simonovic, told the assembly the resolution is not only a response to the disease “but a tribute to the victims,” noting that more than 900,000 people worldwide have died and over 25 million have been infected.

“The world is experiencing the worst economic recession since World War II, and equality and poverty are increasing, and more people are experiencing hunger,” she said. “We are indeed facing the most significant global catastrophe since the founding of this important organization, the United Nations.”

Raz said adoption of the resolution shows the world’s nations are ready to respond, despite failing to reach consensus, and are committed to U.N. goals for 2030 including ending extreme poverty, preserving the environment and achieving gender equality “for building back better after the pandemic.”

Simonovic said the great majority of nations “have chosen the path of solidarity and multilateralism” and called the resolution “a powerful tool for mobilization of political will and financial resources.”

He said political and financial support are badly needed “to curb COVID-19, strengthen our stressed health systems and to save jobs and livelihoods.”

The resolution calls on all countries “and other relevant stakeholders to advance, with determination, bold and concerted actions to address the immediate social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while striving to get back on track” to achieve the 2030 goals.

It calls on governments and international financial institutions “to provide more liquidity in the financial system, especially in all developing countries.” It supports recovery plans that “drive transformative change towards more inclusive and just societies including by empowering and engaging all women and girls.”

And it urges U.N. member nations “to adopt a climate- and environment-responsive approach to COVID-19 recovery efforts” including by aligning investments and domestic policies with the U.N. goals and the 2015 Paris agreement to combat climate change.

Cuba succeeded in changing a paragraph in the resolution that originally called for “the urgent removal of unjustified obstacles in order to ensure the universal, timely and equitable access to, and fair distribution of, all quality, safe, efficacious and affordable essential health technologies and products, including their components and precursors that are required in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

By a vote of 132-3, the assembly amended the resolution to urge all countries “to refrain from promulgating and applying any unilateral economic, financial or trade measures not in accordance with international law and the Charter of the United Nations that impedes the full achievement of economic and social development, particularly in developing countries.”

The United States was then overwhelmingly defeated in attempts to remove two paragraphs from the resolution, one referring to women’s rights to “sexual and reproductive health” and the other to “promoting global sustainable transport.”

In addition to arguing against the language on sanctions, the United States opposed all references to the World Health Organization, which the Trump administration stopped funding, accusing the U.N. agency of failing to do enough to stop the virus from spreading when it first surfaced in China.

It accused China of hiding the truth about the outbreak from the world in the early days which “imperiled all of us and caused needless additional suffering and death.”

Chinese diplomat Xing Jisheng responded, alluding to the recent revelation that President Donald Trump “recognized the danger of the virus at a very early stage, but deliberately played it down to avoid panic.” He asked: “Who is hiding the truth?”

Xing also asked why the U.S., with the most advanced medical system in the world, has the most COVID-19 cases. “If the United States is serious about fighting the pandemic, it should focus on protecting lives and health of its people, instead of being busy with blame-shifting,” he said.

Sweden hits lowest rate of COVID-19 infections since pandemic began

 Sweden has recorded the lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests since the pandemic began, despite the country having never entered a full-scale lockdown.

The Scandinavian country’s health agency said 1.2% (just over 1,300) of the 120,000 COVID-19 tests carried out last week came back positive, well below the 19% seen during some weeks in spring, Reuters reports.

The news comes as European states, including those like France and Spain which imposed restrictive lockdowns on their populations, contend with rising numbers of infections.

Sweden emphasised personal responsibility, social distancing and good hygiene as it tried to slow rather than eliminate the virus, and World Health Organization officials said it was a sustainable approach.

Nonetheless, the strategy drew criticism within Sweden and overseas as deaths rose during spring, and the 5,800 fatalities is much higher per capita than its neighbouring countries but lower than the UK, Spain and Italy.

The country has recorded more than 85,000 cases since its outbreak began, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Now, deaths, hospital admissions and new cases have dropped to low levels.

Jonas Ludvigsson, professor of epidemiology at Karolinska Institutet, said Sweden likely had a higher level of immunity in its population than other countries.

“Our strategy has been consistent and sustainable. We probably have a lower risk of spread here compared to other countries,” he said.

However, the approach has been criticised, with an editorial in the Dagens Nyheter newspaper saying the people praising Sweden’s strategy had forgotten those who died, adding that the death toll was five times higher than Denmark’s.

Obama’s DNC Speech Wasn’t Really About Donald Trump — It Had A Much Darker Message

 Former President Barack Obama addressed the nation on the third night of the Democratic National Convention Wednesday in a chilling speech. And while Trump’s predecessor is known as a warm, charismatic orator, he commanded the attention of the American people in a very different way this time. Obama gave his formal endorsement of the Democratic presidential nominees Joe Biden and his vice presidential pick Kamala Harris while also denouncing President Donald Trump in a nearly unprecedented way. But while the takeaway from his speech was largely around his strong words for Trump, many missed his true warning: Democracy itself is in danger.

“I did hope, for the sake of our country, that Donald Trump might show some interest in taking the job seriously,” Obama said, “But he never did.” He went on, “Donald Trump hasn’t grown into the job because he can’t. And the consequences of that failure are severe.” The former president continued that under Trump, democratic institutions have been “threatened like never before.”

While he understands the many reasons that Americans lack trust in government right now, he said, listing special interests groups lobbying Congress and offshoring jobs, Obama warned that the Trump campaign is also “counting on your cynicism.” This is because “They know they can’t win you over with their policies. So they’re hoping to make it as hard as possible for you to vote, and to convince you that your vote doesn’t matter.” As a result, he said that democracy will continue to wither “until it’s no democracy at all.”

While the existential message may have seemed lost on the masses in a speech where Obama skillfully criticized the entire Trump presidency, some pundits were eager to point out the real power in his message. “He was talking about the end of democracy. Not complaining that Trump overturned some policies,” Zerlina Maxwell, a writer and political analyst tweeted. “I feel validated in the sense of existential dread that I’ve felt for 4 years.”

Maxwell echoed concerns among some Americans that Trump’s actions are steering the country toward “fascism,” something anti-fascist and anti-racist activists have been warning for the last five years. But as the country faces the doom of a flailing United States Postal Service, random law enforcement raids in cities like Portland and Chicago, and the mass detention of unauthorized immigrants, the fascism of Trump’s presidency becomes impossible to ignore — especially for Obama.

Obama has been critical of Trump in the past, most recently describing the Trump administration’s coronavirus response as “an absolute chaotic disaster.” But never has the former president made such a bold statement about the threats facing not only democratic institutions, but also our communities, as he did in his speech Wednesday night.

“Do not let them take away your power. Don’t let them take away your democracy,” Obama warned. And Obama’s point certainly drives merit: As Americans scramble to even make sure their votes are counted in November, the message is clear: We are facing an unprecedented political crisis, and one that we can no longer ignore.