Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Joe Biden’s inauguration speech

 Chief Justice Roberts, Vice President Harris. Speaker Pelosi, Leaders Schumer, McConnell, Vice President Pence, my distinguished guests and my fellow Americans, this is America’s day. This is democracy’s day. A day of history and hope of renewal and resolve through a crucible for the ages. America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge. Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of a cause, the cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people, has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.

We’ve learned again that democracy is precious. Democracy is fragile. At this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed1.


1 Throughout the speech, Biden intersperses the idea that democracy and our system of government has triumphed over threats, while acknowledging that victory isn't final. — Aaron Blake


From now, on this hallowed ground, where just a few days ago, violence sought to shake the Capitol’s very foundation, we come together as one nation, under God, indivisible, to carry out the peaceful transfer of power, as we have for more than two centuries.

As we look ahead in our uniquely American way: restless, bold, optimistic, and set our sights on the nation we can be and we must be.

I thank my predecessors of both parties for their presence2 here today. I thank them from the bottom of my heart. And I know, I know the resilience of our Constitution and the strength, the strength of our nation. As does President Carter, who I spoke with last night, who cannot be with us today, but whom we salute for his lifetime of service.


2 Mike Pence, who succeeded Biden as vice president, attended the inauguration, as did former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. President Trump did not attend, in a major break from the traditional ceremony of transfer of power. — Eugene Scott


I’ve just taken the sacred oath each of those patriots have taken. The oath, first sworn by George Washington. But the American story depends not on any one of us, not on some of us, but on all of us, on we the people who seek a more perfect union.

This is a great nation. We are good people. And over the centuries, through storm and strife, in peace and in war, we've come so far. But we still have far to go. We'll press forward with speed and urgency, for we have much to do in this winter of peril and significant possibilities, much to repair, much to restore, much to heal, much to build, and much to gain.

Few people in our nation’s history have been more challenged or found a time more challenging or difficult than the time we’re in now. A once-in-a-century virus that silently stalks the country. It’s taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II. Millions of jobs have been lost. Hundreds of thousands of businesses closed. A cry for racial justice, some 400 years in the making, moves us. The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.

The cry for survival comes from the planet itself, 3a cry that can’t be any more desperate or any more clear. And now a rise of political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.


3 The Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority in his administration, starting with undoing many of Trump’s environmental decisions via executive order and rejoining the Paris climate accord in his first days in office. — E.S.


To overcome these challenges, to restore the soul and secure the future of America requires so much more than words. It requires the most elusive of all things in a democracy: Unity. Unity.


In another January, on New Year’s Day in 1863, Abraham Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation. When he put pen to paper, the president said, and I quote: “If my name ever goes down into history, it’ll be for this act. And my whole soul is in it.”

My whole soul was in it today. On this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together, uniting our people, uniting our nation. And I ask every American to join me in this cause.

Uniting to fight the foes we face: anger, resentment, hatred, extremism, lawlessness, violence, disease, joblessness and hopelessness. With unity, we can do great things, important things. We can right wrongs. We can put people to work in good jobs. We can teach our children in safe schools. We can overcome the deadly virus. We can reward, reward work, and rebuild the middle class and make health care secure for all. We can deliver racial justice and we can make America once again the leading force for good in the world.

I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy these days. I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real, but I also know they are not new. Our history has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we're all created equal and the harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, demonization have long torn us apart. The battle is perennial and victory is never assured.

Through civil war, the Great Depression, world war, 9/11, through struggle, sacrifice and setbacks, our better angels have always prevailed. In each of these moments, enough of us have come together to carry all of us forward. And we can do that now. History, faith and reason show the way, the way of unity. We can see each other not as adversaries, but as neighbors. We can treat each other with dignity and respect. We can join forces, stop the shouting and lower the temperature. For without unity, there is no peace — only bitterness and fury. No progress — only exhausting outrage. No nation — only a state of chaos.

This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge. And unity is the path forward. And we must meet this moment as the United States of America. If we do that, I guarantee you we will not fail. We have never, ever, ever, ever failed in America when we’ve acted together.4


4 This was Biden's most pronounced appeal to unity. It will be difficult to make it happen, though — not just because of the faction of the Republican Party that remains loyal to Trump, but because of the historically close balance of power in the House and Senate. The Senate is 50-50, and the House is the closest it's been in about two decades. Any legislation will have to run through the political middle, but there are always political incentives to preventing a president from accomplishing things — notably, to argue they failed so your party's nominee might replace them. — A.B.


And so today at this time in this place, let’s start afresh, all of us. Let’s begin to listen to one another again. Hear one another, see one another, show respect to one another. Politics doesn’t have to be a raging fire, destroying everything in its path. Every disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war. And we must reject the culture in which facts themselves are manipulated and even manufactured.

My fellow Americans, we have to be different than this. America has to be better than this. And I believe America is so much better than this. Just look around. Here we stand in the shadow of the Capitol dome, as was mentioned earlier, completed amid the Civil War, when the Union itself was literally hanging in the balance. Yet we endured, we prevailed.

Here we stand looking out on the great Mall where Dr. King spoke of his dream. Here we stand, where 108 years ago, at another inaugural, thousands of protesters tried to block brave women marching for the right to vote. And today we marked the swearing-in of the first woman in American history elected to national office: Vice President Kamala Harris. Don’t tell me things can’t change.5


5 Biden pledged during his primary campaign to make history with his running mate pick, saying he’d only consider women. He followed through on that by selecting a lawmaker from one of the demographic groups who supported him the most — Black women — and the fastest growing minority group in the United States — Asian Americans. — E.S.


Here we stand across the Potomac from Arlington Cemetery, where heroes who gave the last full measure of devotion rest in eternal peace. And here we stand just days after a riotous mob thought they could use violence to silence the will of the people6, to stop the work of our democracy, to drive us from this sacred ground.


6 Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes, as well as winning the electoral college. The election results were affirmed repeatedly in courts as not having been marred by any widespread fraud. But the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 claimed otherwise, and former president Donald Trump never fully acknowledged this was the case. — E.S.


It did not happen. It will never happen. Not today, not tomorrow, not ever. Not ever.


To all those who supported our campaign, I’m humbled by the faith you’ve placed in us. To all those who did not support us, let me say this: Hear me out as we move forward. Take a measure of me and my heart. If you still disagree, so be it. That’s democracy. That’s America. The right to dissent, peaceably, the guardrails of our republic, is perhaps this nation’s greatest strength.

Yet hear me clearly: Disagreement must not lead to disunion. And I pledge this to you: I will be a president for all Americans.7 All Americans. And I promise you I will fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.


7 Biden’s pledge to reach across the aisle on policy and to earn the support of those who did not back him, rather than primarily viewing them as political enemies, was a mainstay of his candidacy, and it was a major theme of his address. — E.S.


Many centuries ago, St. Augustine, a saint in my church, wrote to the people was a multitude defined by the common objects of their love. Defined by the common objects of their love. What are the common objects we as Americans love, that define us as Americans? I think we know. Opportunity, security, liberty, dignity, respect, honor and, yes, the truth.

Recent weeks and months have taught us a painful lesson. There is truth and there are lies, lies told for power and for profit. And each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans, and especially as leaders, leaders who have pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our nation, to defend the truth and defeat the lies.8


8 This is one of the prominent features of Biden's speech: While calling for unity, an acknowledgment that some of his opponents aren't on the level and that their influence must be dealt with. Biden didn't use his speech to call out individuals who purveyed the theory that his win wasn't legitimate, but he seems to recognize that, without addressing the proliferation of falsehoods, his agenda will be difficult to enact. For a man who emphasizes conciliation, it was certainly a notable choice. — A.B.


Look — I understand that many of my fellow Americans view the future with fear and trepidation. I understand they worry about their jobs. I understand, like my dad, they lay in bed at night, staring at the ceiling, wondering: Can I keep my health care? Can I pay my mortgage? Thinking about their families, about what comes next. I promise you, I get it.

But the answer is not to turn inward, to retreat into competing factions, distrusting those who don’t look like you or worship the way you do, or don’t get their news from the same sources you do. We must end this uncivil war 9that pits red against blue, rural vs. urban, conservative vs. liberal. We can do this if we open our souls instead of hardening our hearts. If we show a little tolerance and humility, and if we’re willing to stand in the other person’s shoes, as my mom would say, just for a moment, stand in their shoes. Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand. That’s how it has to be. That’s what we do for one another. And if we are this way, our country will be stronger, more prosperous, more ready for the future. And we can still disagree.


9 One of the most memorable lines of the speech — and one that conjures images of the ugliest chapter in American history, which has to have been part of the calculation. It's Obama-esque, but also a realistic description of the nature of our politics. — A.B.


My fellow Americans, in the work ahead of us, we’re going to need each other. We need all our strength to persevere through this dark winter. We’re entering what may be the toughest and deadliest period of the virus. We must set aside politics and finally face this pandemic as one nation. One nation10.


10 The events of the past two months have in many ways papered over the size of the challenge ahead for Biden's administration, especially with regard to the coronavirus pandemic. Calls to "set aside politics" are boilerplate, but Biden acknowledges how much uglier it's likely to get become as we refocus on fighting the virus, rather than a threat to our democracy. — A.B.


And I promise you this, as the Bible says: “Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning.” We will get through this together. Together.

Look, folks. All my colleagues I served with in the House of the Senate up there, we all understand the world is watching, watching all of us today. So here’s my message to those beyond our borders: 11America has been tested and we’ve come out stronger for it. We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again. Not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s challenges. And we’ll lead, not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.


11 Biden signals that the standoffish posture toward allies from the Trump administration is a thing of the past, as the United States' reputation has reached a new low, and that America can be trusted again to abide by its agreements. Biden is set to rejoin the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, which Trump pulled out of. A big question is how he handles the Iran deal that Trump left. — A.B.


We’ll be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress and security. Look — you all know we’ve been through so much in this nation. And my first act as president, I’d like to ask you to join me in a moment of silent prayer to remember all those who we lost this past year to the pandemic. Those 400,000 fellow Americans. Moms, dads, husbands, wives, sons, daughters, friends, neighbors and co-workers. We will honor them by becoming the people and the nation we know we can and should be. So I ask you, let’s say a silent prayer for those who’ve lost their lives, those left behind, and for our country.12


12 An acknowledgement of the biggest task that lies ahead. — A.B.


Amen.


Folks, this is a time of testing. We face an attack on our democracy and on truth, a raging virus, growing inequity, the sting of systemic racism, a climate in crisis, America’s role in the world. Any one of these will be enough to challenge us in profound ways. But the fact is, we face them all at once, presenting this nation with one of the gravest responsibilities we’ve had. Now we’re going to be tested. Are we going to step up? All of us? It’s time for boldness, for there is so much to do. And this is certain, I promise you: We will be judged, you and I, by how we resolve these cascading crises of our era.

Will we rise to the occasion is the question. Will we master this rare and difficult hour? Will we meet our obligations and pass along a new and better world to our children? I believe we must. I’m sure you do as well. I believe we will. And when we do, we’ll write the next great chapter in the history of the United States of America. The American story. A story that might sound something like a song that means a lot to me. It’s called “American Anthem.” There’s one verse that stands out, at least for me, and it goes like this:

The work and prayers of a century have brought us to this day.

What shall be our legacy? What will our children say?

Let me know in my heart when my days are through.

America, America, I gave my best to you.

Let's add. Let us add our own work and prayers to the unfolding story of our great nation. If we do this, then when our days are through, our children and our children's children will say of us: They gave their best, they did their duty, they healed a broken land.

My fellow Americans, I close the day where I began, with a sacred oath before God and all of you. I give you my word, I will always level with you. I will defend the Constitution. I’ll defend our democracy. I’ll defend America and I will give all, all of you. Keep everything I do in your service, thinking not of power, but of possibilities, not of personal interest, but the public good. And together we shall write an American story of hope, not fear. Of unity, not division. Of light, not darkness. A story of decency and dignity, love and healing, greatness and goodness. May this be the story that guides us. The story that inspires us and the story that tells ages yet to come that we answered the call of history. We met the moment. Democracy and hope, truth and justice did not die on our watch, but thrived. That America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world. That is what we owe our forebears, one another and generations to follow.

So, with purpose and resolve, we turn to those tasks of our time. Sustained by faith, driven by conviction, devoted to one another and the country we love with all our hearts. May God bless America and may God protect our troops. Thank you, America.



Monday, January 18, 2021

Independent pandemic review panel critical of China, WHO delays

 GENEVA (Reuters) - An independent panel said on Monday that Chinese officials could have applied public health measures more forcefully in January to curb the initial COVID-19 outbreak, and criticised the World Health Organization (WHO) for not declaring an international emergency until Jan. 30.

The experts reviewing the global handling of the pandemic, led by former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark and former Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, called for reforms to the Geneva-based United Nations agency.Their interim report was published hours after the WHO's top emergency expert, Mike Ryan, said that global deaths from COVID-19 were expected to top 100,000 per week "very soon".

"What is clear to the Panel is that public health measures could have been applied more forcefully by local and national health authorities in China in January," the report said, referring to the initial outbreak of the new disease in the central city of Wuhan, in Hubei province.

As evidence emerged of human-to-human transmission, "in far too many countries, this signal was ignored", it added.

Specifically, it questioned why the WHO's Emergency Committee did not meet until the third week of January and did not declare an international emergency until its second meeting on Jan. 30.

"Although the term pandemic is neither used nor defined in the International Health Regulations (2005), its use does serve to focus attention on the gravity of a health event. It was not until 11 March that WHO used the term," the report said.

"The global pandemic alert system is not fit for purpose", it said. "The World Health Organization has been underpowered to do the job."

Under President Donald Trump, the United States has accused the WHO of being "China-centric", which the agency denies. European countries led by France and Germany have pushed for addressing the WHO's shortcomings on funding, governance and legal powers.

The panel called for a "global reset" and said that it would make recommendations in a final report to health ministers from the WHO's 194 member states in May.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

China Deserves a Day in Court

 By David B. Rivkin Jr. and Lee A. Casey

ILLUSTRATION: CHAD CROWE


As Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate how to deal with malign Chinese behavior, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics reports its economy has largely recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, growing 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter. Meanwhile American class-action lawyers and the attorneys general of Mississippi and Missouri are suing the Chinese government over the novel coronavirus. Plaintiffs accuse Beijing of various forms of misconduct, ranging from negligence in handling the original infections in Wuhan to the reckless operation of biolabs and even perpetrating bioterrorism against the U.S.

Some of these claims are more plausible than others, but all face an insurmountable obstacle in court: the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act of 1976, which prevents most lawsuits against foreign countries in U.S. courts. Litigation could be a way of holding China accountable, but only if Congress changes the law.

FSIA makes a few limited exceptions to immunity. Although lawyers in these cases have cited them, all seem clearly inapplicable. One permits suits against foreign governments based on their commercial activities in the U.S., or elsewhere if there is a direct effect in America. But these complaints allege governmental, not commercial, negligence or duplicity in handling the epidemic.

The tort exception allows foreign governments to be sued for wrongful actions, whether negligent or intentional. But Supreme Court precedent limits the exception to torts that take place entirely within the U.S. It would cover, for instance, an auto accident in Washington but not in Beijing.

There’s also an exception for terrorism, but that requires either that the defendant be designated a “state sponsor of terrorism” by the U.S.—currently only Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria are—or a specific act of international terrorism within the U.S. A biological attack would surely qualify, but there’s no evidence of that here.

FSIA gives federal courts jurisdiction over all lawsuits against foreign governments, and it’s almost certain judges will dismiss these actions even if Beijing refuses to participate in the proceedings. Reinterpreting any of the FSIA exceptions to cover suits involving the pandemic would open the door to further attacks on sovereign immunity. The U.S., a sovereign state itself, should be careful about creating broad new exceptions, and judges should be especially cautious, since they have neither the authority nor the expertise to conduct foreign policy.

That said, Congress has the power to limit or withdraw a foreign state’s sovereign immunity, and it should consider doing so in response to Covid-19. Such changes to deal with novel problems are legitimate and well-recognized. In May the Supreme Court held unanimously in Optai v. Republic of Sudan that plaintiffs in a lawsuit over al Qaeda’s 1998 attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa could recover punitive damages under an amendment to FSIA enacted in 2008.

Congress could enact a new exception to FSIA for cases in which a foreign state has failed to inform, or deliberately misinformed, the global community of the nature and scope of a local epidemic that becomes a global pandemic. Beijing’s failure in December to comply with the 24-hour notification requirement of the 2005 International Health Regulations would be an important factor to consider.

Such a statute could either create a new federal tort or give federal courts jurisdiction over suits alleging injuries under state law. As with the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act of 2016, Congress should authorize the federal government to intervene in litigation to secure a diplomatic resolution that compensates plaintiffs and mitigates future harms.

The U.S. judiciary is respected around the world and would be a better venue than any governmental or international investigation for getting at the truth of Covid-19. Beijing has accused the U.S. military of creating the virus and introducing it during the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan, in which a U.S. team participated. Chinese nationals have filed several lawsuits in China against the U.S. military, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other American government entities. In these pages in May, a senior Chinese official, Xie Feng, suggested that the virus might have originated outside China. If Chinese officials have evidence to support any of these assertions, they could introduce them in court. In any case, their claims underscore the need for an impartial inquiry.

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Congress could also withdraw immunity from international organizations that allegedly aided and abetted China’s efforts to play down the virus’s transmission and the health risks. Western intelligence services have suggested that Beijing gave detailed instructions to World Health Organization on what it should say. Plaintiffs could use the discovery process to identify other governmental and private-sector collaborators and hold them accountable for their Covid-related activities and other likely offenses, such as garden-variety corruption, committed while collaborating with Beijing.

They could also explore evidence that Covid-19 stemmed from an accidental release from a Wuhan biolab.

Beijing wouldn’t be able to ignore U.S. lawsuits. If it refused to participate, U.S. courts would enter enforceable default judgments. If it did participate, it would have to submit to discovery. It may be tempted to cheat in this process, but modern discovery techniques make that exceedingly difficult, and cheating would entail further liability and judicial punishments.

The Chinese government could try to avoid complying with any court-ordered damages and injunctions. But that wouldn’t be easy. Successful plaintiffs could collect judgments against Beijing by seizing Chinese government-owned commercial property around the world and the proceeds of sales of government goods and services. Ignoring injunctions would lead to monetary fines and other punishments.

Several bills featuring some of these provisions have been introduced by Sens. Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Martha McSally and Marsha Blackburn. Congress should proceed with caution. The law is usually a blunt and inflexible policy tool, wielded by an unelected judiciary rather than the president and Congress, where the Constitution vests the power to run foreign affairs. The political branches are accountable for their decisions in a way that the judiciary is not.

Yet Covid-19 has taken a tremendous human and economic toll world-wide. Lawsuits may become a powerful instrument for changing China’s behavior and can aid U.S. diplomatic and economic efforts to accomplish the same goal. Deterring China from future aberrant behavior requires holding it accountable for its Covid-19-related misconduct.

Messrs. Rivkin and Casey practice appellate and constitutional law in Washington. They served in the White House Counsel’s Office and Justice Department under Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Human ageing process biologically reversed in world first

 A beginning of uncertainty.

The ageing process has been biologically reversed for the first time by giving humans oxygen therapy in a pressurised chamber.

Scientists in Israel showed they could turn back the clock in two key areas of the body believed to be responsible for the frailty and ill-health that comes with growing older.

As people age, the protective caps at the ends of chromosomes – called telomeres – shorten, causing DNA to become damaged and cells to stop replicating. At the same time, "zombie" senescent cells build up in the body, preventing regeneration.

Increasing telemere length and getting rid of senescent cells is the focus of many anti-ageing studies, and drugs are being developed to target those areas.

Now scientists at Tel Aviv University have shown that giving pure oxygen to older people while in a hyperbaric chamber increased the length of their telomeres by 20 per cent, a feat that has never been achieved before. 

Scientists said the growth may mean that the telomeres of trial participants were now as long as they had been 25 years earlier. 

A hyperbaric chamber  - Universal Images Group Editorial /Universal Images Group Editorial 
A hyperbaric chamber - Universal Images Group Editorial /Universal Images Group Editorial

The therapy also reduced senescent cells by up to 37 per cent, making way for new healthy cells to regrow. Animal studies have shown that removing senescent cells extends remaining life by more than one third.

"Since telomere shortening is considered the 'Holy Grail' of the biology of ageing, many pharmacological and environmental interventions are being extensively explored in the hopes of enabling telomere elongation," said Professor Shai Efrati of the Faculty of Medicine and Sagol School of Neuroscience at Tel Aviv University.

"The significant improvement of telomere length shown during and after these unique protocols provides the scientific community with a new foundation of understanding that ageing can indeed be targeted and reversed at the basic cellular-biological level."

Many scientists now believe ageing itself is responsible for major conditions such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, arthritis, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. 

It is also known that obesity, smoking, lack of physical activity, vitamin deficiency and inflammation can speed up the shortening of telomeres, demonstrating that they have a major impact on longevity. 

Micrograph of human chromosomes with yellow dye marking location of telomeres - Los Alamos National Laboratory 
Micrograph of human chromosomes with yellow dye marking location of telomeres - Los Alamos National Laboratory

The trial included 35 healthy independent adults aged 64 and older who did not undergo any lifestyle, diet or medication adjustments. Each patient was placed in a hyperbaric chamber for 90 minutes for five days a week over three months while breathing 100 per cent oxygen through a mask. 

The pressurised chamber allows more oxygen to be dissolved into the tissues and mimics a state of "hypoxia", or oxygen shortage, which is known to have regenerating effects. 

Previous trials have shown that eating a healthy diet can preserve telomere length, while high-intensity training for six months has been proven to lengthen telomeres by up to five per cent. 

The Israeli team has also previously demonstrated that the pressurised oxygen therapy can improve cognitive decline. 

"Until now, interventions such as lifestyle modifications and intense exercise were shown to have some inhibition effect on the expected telomere length shortening," said Dr Amir Hadanny, chief medical research officer of the Sagol Center for Hyperbaric Medicine and Research. 

"However, what is remarkable to note in our study is that, in just three months of therapy, we were able to achieve such significant telomere elongation – at rates far beyond any of the current available interventions or lifestyle modifications.

"With this pioneering study, we have opened a door for further research on the prolonged cellular impact of the therapy to reverse the ageing process. After dedicating our research to exploring its impact on the areas of brain functionality and age-related cognitive decline, we have now uncovered, for the first time in humans, biological effects at the cellular level in healthy ageing adults." 

The research was published in the journal Ageing.

Sunday, November 15, 2020

全球叫好:辉瑞疫苗牛在哪里?

 美国时间11月13日,川普在大选后第一次发表正式讲话,宣布最快将从2021年4月起,在全美提供新冠疫苗。这场肆虐全球的大流行病有望在灾难最为深重的美国率先得到控制。


深陷选举纠纷的川普为什么专门为了疫苗召开发布会,而且信心如此强烈?

他所说的疫苗,就是美国辉瑞(Pfizer)公司和德国生物科技公司BioNTech联合研发的,经过三期临床试验,证实有效率达到90%以上的BNT162新冠疫苗。这个消息几天前发布后,就已经引发了美国股市的巨大反应,不仅这两家公司的股价坐上了火箭,还带动大盘整体上升不止,显示出市场对于这只疫苗的巨大信心。


实际上在此之前,俄罗斯和中国都先行宣布了自己研制的疫苗,但是全球反响平平,甚至质疑不断。为什么辉瑞的疫苗一出,引来叫好连连并迅速得到一致认可?

传统的疫苗叫做减毒疫苗、灭活疫苗。原理是将整个病毒株提取后,经过减毒和灭活使其失去致病能力,但依然有蛋白活性。所以在进入人体后,能够激发人体的免疫系统作出反应,产生有效抗体。这种传统疫苗的研制周期很长,一般情况下从研制到最终应用,需要8-10年。但今年新冠疫情来势汹汹,破坏力极大,显然大家都等不了那么久。

辉瑞的这款疫苗叫做“mRNA疫苗”。mRNA学名叫做信使核糖核酸——它是一种天然分子,为人体细胞提供指令,制造标靶蛋白和抗原,从而激发人体免疫反应。疫苗研制的原理是从病毒分子中提取出mRNA,注入人体细胞产生抗体。人体在感染新冠之后,这些抗体就会被激活,抵抗病毒。

这种方法本来是德国生物科技公司BioNTech用来研发抗癌药物的,但是今年三月发现用于疫苗研发更为迅速,所以得以和辉瑞合作,用短短数月的时间,实现了疫苗研发的“光速”。

那么这只创新的疫苗到底牛在哪里?它牛在三个方面。

第一,它能对付病毒变异。新冠病毒传染性和致病性强,原因之一在于病毒的变异能力很强。按照传统的疫苗研制方法,病毒一旦变异,又要从头研制,效率低下。而辉瑞的疫苗直接提取自于不会发生变化的核糖核酸,所以万变不离其宗,不管病毒发生什么变异,都能准确识别并产生相应抗体。

第二、这款疫苗安全性高。传统疫苗对于极少数人群存在过敏风险和脱靶效应,而这款疫苗在这两方面都明显优于传统疫苗。

第三、它造价低、生产快。根据辉瑞公布的计划,预估在2020年底之前生产供应全球约5千万针疫苗,而在2021年底前可以供应约13亿支。三个月的产量就足以实现美国全民注射,一年的产量就可以解决全球主要国家的需求。相反传统灭活疫苗产量十分有限,比如前段时间国药集团公布的疫苗,乐观产能一年下来也只有2亿支,解决本国的需求都有困难。

当然这款疫苗也有缺点,那就是它的质量控制要求很高,未必是每个国家有生产条件,而且储藏和运输条件极为苛刻——需要在零下80度。但许多医疗中心没有这样的设备。发展中国家和经济欠发达地区更缺乏这样的设备。也就是说,短时间内可能全球只有少数发达国家可以大面积推广。

 


那么问题也就来了,为什么全球市场如此信赖辉瑞的疫苗,它不会吹牛逼吗?

辉瑞在医药界的实力就无需多说了,这家创办于1849年的老牌药企,在制药行业中长期排名全球第一,总部位于纽约。使用发酵技术生产青霉素、研发广谱抗生素、四环素等跨时代的成果都是出自他家。当然更不用说中老年男性的福音——伟哥也是他家的。

大家信赖辉瑞除了全球第一的金字招牌,更重要的是他家严谨的临床数据,辉瑞这款疫苗严格按照三期临床试验的流程,在美国、巴西、德国、阿根廷、南非和土耳其六个国家的4.35万名具有“不同的种族和民族背景”志愿者中进行了实验。数据显示,志愿者在七天内接受两次注射之后,90%可以获得免疫力。这个数据不仅远远高于美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)对上市疫苗有效率至少要达到50%的要求,而且也高于目前市面上普通流感疫苗70%左右的有效率。

传染病疫苗50%有效率是一个坎,一般认为只要超过50%的有效率,就能有效控制病毒的传播。90%已经是一个极为惊人的数据。中国的复星医药在 3 月份与 BioNTech 签署合作协议,获得这款疫苗在中国开发的许可,并于 7 月 16 日获得临床实验批准,9 月在中国进行的一期试验 144 例受试者免疫效果良好。这也从侧面说明了这款疫苗的实力。

而中国和巴西合作的疫苗三期数据尚不明朗,而且目前因为病人自杀的事件,目前已经在巴西暂停临床试验。而国内陈薇院士的疫苗还在临床二期,而且数据上也和辉瑞的不可比拟。

欧盟已经和辉瑞签署购买多达三亿剂疫苗的合同。英国也已经订购了4千万剂,加拿大和日本也在跑步入场。

当然,其实病毒传染不分中外,不管哪个国家研制出来,都是对全人类的贡献,获益的也是各国的民众。在这上面没有必要用民族主义的眼光去看待全球市场的反应——事实就是事实。在对待生命安全的这个话题上,是需要全球认可的硬指标的。

这款救命的疫苗乐观估计将在本月底获得美国药监局批准上市。这场肆虐全球的新冠疫情,终于露出了衰败的迹象。

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

中国自由派为什么选择特朗普

 中国自由主义群体的分裂是美国总统大选的一个副产品。从来没有哪次美国大选像这次一样让中国民众投入如此之多的热情,在被左派和国家主义者蔑称为"恨国党"的自由主义群体中,因对特朗普政治取向的不同,分化为"挺川派"和"恨川党",两派在推特和微信等社交媒体上为选川还是选拜,恶语相向。


中国自由派的分化从上世纪90年代初就开始。根据一些论者的看法,1990年代新左派从自由主义者里分裂出来,2000年代文化保守主义者从自由主义者里分裂出来,2012年后激进派从自由主义者里分裂出来。但这几次分化都没有此次严重和撕裂。在自由派内部,"挺川派"占多数,那些在中国民间和公共舆论中占有较大话语权和影响力的中国公共知识分子,基本都是特朗普的支持者,他们在美国这次总统大选中,利用推特等工具,为特朗普摇旗呐喊,抨击拜登和民主党。相对而言,支持拜登的中国自由主义头面人物要少得多。

这确实和美国形成了一个鲜明的对比。在后者的大学、媒体、各种非政府组织、自由职业者等传统上由自由派和知识分子为主体的行业,几乎是一边倒地反川和挺拜。中国的自由派之所以出现这种"挺川派"主导的现象,原因当然出在中国内部和自由派群里内部。简单地说,由于习近平上台以来中共政治向毛式极权回归,政治和言论空间被大幅压缩,官方对自由派的打压也达到八九六四后前所未有的程度,在自由派内部,不仅分化出激进派和极端派,即使在温和派里,近年来也出现了主张以基督启示救中国的自由保守派。激进派认为,要压制中共的邪恶,推翻习近平政权,只能靠特朗普和特朗普当政下的美国;保守派则认同美国共和党的保守理念,认为中国只有基督化,这个国家和民族才能得救。两者都把改变中国的希望寄托在特朗普身上。

尽管自由主义"挺川派"的一些人士对特朗普本人也素无好感,甚至对美国社会因特朗普加剧撕裂也颇感惋惜,但即使对他们--这部分人在整个"挺川派"处于少数--而言,特朗普美国优先的这套政策和做法是没有问题的,他们尤其赞同和支持特朗普政府和美国鹰派对中国的全面对抗和极限打压,认为总算把自尼克松以来的美国历届政府对中共/中国的绥靖政策改过来了。在他们看来,民主党和美国的建制派,在过去40年同中共勾连,养肥中共,把中共培养成自己的敌人,对中共与自由世界为敌的本质认识不清。拜登作为奥巴马时期的副总统,在遏制中共上无所作为,以他对中国的认知,如果当选总统,美国的对华政策恐又回到过去的勾连老路上。而特朗普,不管他个人的言行多么粗鄙,也不管他曾经如何和习称兄道弟,是他发起了对中共/中国一轮又一轮的超强打击,这是美国历届总统尤其民主党政府做不到的,所以必须无条件支持特朗普,在美国大选的关键时刻,反川者不论出于任何理由,都不对,是在帮助中共。

换言之,自由主义群体的"挺川派"看不到或无视特朗普对美国民主的破坏和美国社会的撕裂,特朗普如何对待美国不重要,他们只关注他如何对付中国和中共,只要能像特朗普这样反共反中,他们都支持,他们之所以反对拜登,是因为他们基于拜登以往的经历和民主党的理念,认为拜登不可能有特朗普这样坚决和激烈的反共反中态度。

自由派中的"挺川派"反共反中到如此地步,正是自由派的"恨川党"担忧的。后者在反共的态度上其实和前者一致,他们也关注和支持特朗普的反共,但更关注特朗普本人的道德品行及内外政策与做法对美国民主灯塔的破坏作用。他们认为,特朗普的反科学、反移民、种族主义,视媒体和政治对手为敌人、对联邦官员强调个人忠诚、对盟友和伙伴也乱打一通等等做法,以及政策上的反复无常和个人道德的瑕疵已对美国民主造成了很大破坏,让美国的国家形象在世界受损,导致美国影响力即使在盟国也有很大下降。如果再让特朗普当政四年,由于没有了连任压力,以他随心所欲的个性和具有的破坏力,不是去努力弥合国内分歧,而是制造和扩大对立,美国社会的撕裂会到何种程度,真的不好预估,搞不好很可能出现"民主内战",美国在全世界会进一步陷入孤立,民主灯塔将会暗淡无光。而这正是全球独裁者乐于看到的结果。如果美国陷入无休无止的党争和内乱,也会损害美国的国家实力,长期看非常不利和中国的竞争,更别提打倒习政权和中共了。所以在"恨川党"看来,美国要真正遏制和打败中共,自身的民主体制要起到榜样作用,用榜样的力量照耀中国人民,让民主灯塔在全世界发光,只有这样才能团结和带领西方民主国家共抗中共,而特朗普在台上,只会继续起到破坏作用。

这里涉及如何评估特朗普政府对中国的新冷战是否起到应有的打击中共/中国的效果。"挺川派"显然认为效果很好,因此要再接再厉,一鼓作气,把中共打趴下。他们反对拜登和民主党,倒不一定是说拜登不会反共,而是对拜登反共的力度和方式没有信心,从而很可能让中共得到喘息之机,最后使反共大业半途而废。"恨川党"则没有"挺川派"这么乐观。对这个问题的看法,很难有一个准确的答案,往往同个人的理念、经验、信息和看问题的角度密切相关,也许既不像"挺川派"认为的只要持续强硬对抗中共,过不了多久它就得倒下,也不像一些人认为的没起到什么作用,真相可能在两者之间。

但不管怎样,现在是拜登胜选,让人遗憾的是,"挺川派"相当一部分人,还在制造和传播各种不靠谱的消息,抹黑、攻击拜登和民主党,这让中国的自由派和海外民运在本次美国大选中差不多沦为一个笑柄。此种情况只会有利中共。自由派这几年在中共的打击下,无论在知识圈还是舆论界影响力急剧下降,现在内部又互怼消耗,多数站队特朗普,指责美国总统选举的公正性。选举民主是西方民主的基石,如果美国这次总统选举在"挺川派"眼中毫无公正可言,拜登窃取总统之职,那么他们苦心要为中国争民主又有什么价值?这不正应了中共的一贯抹黑:美国民主是虚伪的,中国没有必要学西方民主。

所以,中国自由派若不调整自己的心态和思维模式,把基点放在自己的抗争上,而不幻想有一个特朗普式救世主,团结对共,避免内耗,将会在中国社会和民众中进一步被孤立和边缘化,中国的民主不是更快到来而是更为遥远。

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...