Tuesday, February 9, 2021

接种新冠疫苗后,体内抗体会被当做是感染病毒产生的吗?

         你接种新冠疫苗了吗?

    经过一年多的努力,应对新冠病毒的疫苗已经整装待发,数支疫苗已经获得紧急使用授权或批准上市,全球数千万人已率先完成接种。

  一些人开始有了新的担忧:接种新冠疫苗后,身体内会产生新冠病毒抗体,做核酸检测和抗体检测会呈阳性吗?会被误认为确诊病例吗?

  大家可以记住这个答案:接种疫苗不会被当成确诊病例。

  疫苗是如何帮助人类预防疾病的?

  这一切需要从疫苗与检测的原理说起。在病毒入侵人体后,免疫系统可以识别到病毒,放出抗体把病毒团团抱住,使其不能够感染人体,从而保护身体健康。

  早在1796年,人类就学会了利用这个特性对抗传染病。我们用病毒上不会让人生病的成分接种人体,也能够产生针对病毒的抗体,这就叫做免疫力。接种的成分,被称为疫苗。

新型冠状病毒灭活疫苗 图片来源:新华社记者 张玉薇 摄 新型冠状病毒灭活疫苗 图片来源:新华社记者 张玉薇 摄

  在科技的发展下,人类已经拥有了多种方式快速大量制备疫苗。把新冠病毒的活性消灭以后,它还能引起人体的免疫反应,但不能够在人体里复制,这就是灭活疫苗。

  使用生物技术,生产病毒上特定的成分,也能让人类获得免疫力。重组疫苗和载体疫苗等用的就是这个办法。

  此外,还有一种新的方法制作核酸疫苗。核酸疫苗不需要接种病毒的成分本身,只需要接种病毒合成的模板。核酸模板进入人体内后,再变成病毒的片段,让人得到免疫力。

  人体的免疫系统非常“智能”,当首次感知到病毒等抗原时,会快速地产生一种叫IgM的抗体应对初次感染。在应对的同时,还会通过把病毒的特征“记住”,形成记忆B细胞,进入休眠状态。如果病毒一直在体内复制,或再次遇到同类病毒,记忆B细胞能够重新激活,大量复制。重新激活的记忆B细胞会大量产生另一种叫IgG的抗体。这个过程中,IgM抗体负责初期的应急处理,IgG抗体则是后续增援的主力大部队。

  简单来说,新冠疫苗的作用是,提前让身体知道新冠病毒“长什么样”,再遇到新冠病毒的时候,身体能大量产生抗体消灭病毒,保卫我们的健康。

新冠病毒的结构示意图 图片来源:作者提供 新冠病毒的结构示意图 图片来源:作者提供

  注射疫苗为什么无法影响检测结果?

  患者体内有新冠病毒的抗体,疫苗接种者体内也有新冠病毒的抗体。新冠检测的时候,会被当成当成确诊病例吗?

  答案是,不会。

  接种疫苗之后,体内只会留有特别少的IgM抗体像保安一样巡逻警戒。当不幸感染新冠肺炎的时候,身体会迅速叫醒休眠的记忆B细胞,这批“援军”能够迅速产生大量IgG抗体,对抗新冠病毒。IgM抗体和进行后续增援的IgG抗体,可以帮助判断一个人是否感染了新冠病毒。

  目前的抗体检测时用抗体试纸,抗体检测可以通过试纸在十几分钟内快速看到结果。如果你具有某一种新冠抗体,试纸上就能够在相应的位置看到红线。两种抗体同时阳性,试纸上有两条红线,才能说明一个新感染新冠肺炎的患者体内的免疫系统正在与新冠病毒激烈搏斗。如果只有一种抗体阳性,则需要通过进一步的核酸检测来判定。

抗体检测的红线。上一行为阳性,下一行为阴性。抗体检测的红线。上一行为阳性,下一行为阴性。

  需要强调的是,因为存在局限性,一般不会使用这种方法。

  而核酸检测,即检测体内是否含有新冠病毒的RNA,是目前国内判断是否感染新冠病毒的主要依据。新冠病毒中,RNA由病毒的衣壳包裹,衣壳外还有一层包膜。三层结构中,只有最中间的核酸,即RNA才是检测的目标,而新冠疫苗用的是病毒最外层包膜的刺突蛋白。接种疫苗之后,并不会影响核酸检测的结果。

核酸检测与核酸疫苗的靶点核酸检测与核酸疫苗的靶点

  了解了核酸检测原理后,新的问题出现了。之前提到的核酸疫苗也是核酸,核酸疫苗会不会影响核酸检测结果呢?

      事实上,新冠病毒的核酸序列一共约有三万个碱基,用于核酸疫苗只有约四千个碱基。为了保证核酸检测的准确性,通常需要对新冠病毒核酸的两个位置进行检测。这两个位置不在核酸疫苗上,所以不会影响核酸检测结果。部分核酸检测试剂盒会检测单个位置或三个位置,仍然与核酸疫苗不重叠。

  除了碱基位置不重叠外,用于核酸检测的荧光PCR检测是一种灵敏的技术,不仅能检测出病毒的核酸,还能检测出病毒核酸的多少。由此也可以判断到底是注射了疫苗,还是感染了病毒。

  新冠肺炎的疫苗和诊疗方案经过了无数科学家和医务工作者的完善。精度稍差但更便捷的抗体检测,巧妙地对两种抗体进行了严格规定,在准确的同时不放过病毒的蛛丝马迹。作为黄金标准的核酸检测,因为疫苗不包含病毒核酸,不会混淆实际感染者和接种新冠疫苗的人群。

  因此,接种疫苗后,可以放心地配合检疫人员进行每一次核酸检测或抗体检测,不用担心被误认为感染者。

  即使你有着中彩票般的“运气”,在一种检测方式中不小心遇到了假阳性,检测人员也会让你重新进行更严格的二次检测。此时你不必焦急,不用慌张,相信医护人员,耐心等待结果即可。

Monday, February 8, 2021

Enough with America's 'thank you for your service' culture. It's betrayal, not patriotism.

 Joseph Biden just became America’s fourth post-9/11 “war president.” He now ends speeches with “May God protect our troops.” First lady Jill Biden even penned a children's book titled, "Don’t Forget, God Bless Our Troops." Their son Beau was a soldier — and his parents suspect toxic “burn pit” exposure on his Iraq tour caused the brain cancer that later killed him. Both Jill and Joe repeatedly foreground military and veteran sacrifices — with good reason.

But just what is the best way for Americans to honor and respect veterans’ sacrifices?

Responses to this question tend to be as diverse as America itself. There's no single right answer, but there are plenty of wrong ones. One thing has become abundantly clear: America’s “thank you for your service” culture doesn't help veterans — or society.

Our country’s military is continually misused, and no amount of pyrotechnics, flag-waving, priority airline boarding, discount nachos, bumper stickers or military flyovers can fix that. For two decades, the U.S. government has knowingly sent its service members to self-perpetuating and self-defeating wars.

That’s not patriotism — that’s betrayal.

Deception in broad daylight

A more effective alternative to such lobotomized patriotism — and a better way to honor veterans' service — is to get informed about how the troops are used and to dissent whenever the military is not used wisely. Historically, veterans sacrificed plenty to preserve the rights that Americans enjoy.

Return the favor. Get informed, demand transparency, prevent the squandering of such service.

Enough of the painful updates: End America's Guantanamo Bay chapter for detainees and for 9/11 families like mine

But respect for our military must begin before they become veterans — before they’ve sacrificed limbs, lives and mental health supporting bad policy. Because by then, it’s already too late. Instead, respect military service by ensuring that everyone who dons a uniform — beginning the moment when minors approach recruiting tables in high school lunchrooms — has informed consent about what they’re actually signing up for.

Isn’t it fascinating that many teachers would never expose children to graphic images of dead soldiers in classrooms, but those same students can be misled in broad daylight, at schoolhouses turned de facto recruiting stations? Consequently, American youths could unwittingly become those very dead bodies.

U.S. soldiers in Wardak province, central Afghanistan, in 2019.
U.S. soldiers in Wardak province, central Afghanistan, in 2019.

Informed consent is a critical component of respect. And if our society believes that images of amputees or dead civilians — and statistics about suicide, post-traumatic stress disorder or drug abuse — are too explicit for underage audiences, perhaps its military should quit recruiting children.

Therefore, we advocate for our Pentagon and the rest of America’s war-making machine — the ever-euphemistic defense establishment — to adopt a code consistent with the American Medical Association’s ethics opinion on informed consent: “Patients have the right to receive information and ask questions about recommended treatments so that they can make well-considered decisions about care.” The AMA guidance further states that physicians — in our scenario, war doctors — should present relevant information about the “burdens, risks, and expected benefits of all options.”

Needless suffering, home and abroad

What, then, are some of the recruiting risks worth mentioning?

For starters, a survey by The Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation reported that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan "have caused mental and emotional health problems in 31% of vets — more than 800,000 of them."

In one of the largest surveys available on post-9/11 veterans, “40% of veterans polled had considered suicide at least once after they joined the military” and roughly 20 veterans and active-duty service members committed suicide daily in the past several years — a truly staggering figure. That’s “more suicides each year than the total American military deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq," as a New York Times editorial board member characterized it.

Respect military service by ensuring that everyone who dons a uniform — beginning the moment when minors approach recruiting tables in high school lunchrooms — has informed consent about what they’re actually signing up for.
Respect military service by ensuring that everyone who dons a uniform — beginning the moment when minors approach recruiting tables in high school lunchrooms — has informed consent about what they’re actually signing up for.

Divorce, alcohol, drugs, depression, endless “zombie” medication to mitigate endless deployments — the whole nine yards. All of it ought to be raised before any American enlists, but we do not know of a single instance where a recruiter discussed the risks of military service.

'Losers' and 'suckers': Military service made men in my family nothing like Donald Trump

Likewise, because it is one of the most traumatic, highly personal elements of combat, recruits should recognize that America’s war on terror has resulted in the deaths, often violent, of more than 100 Sept. 11's worth of civilians from Africa to Central Asia. In the final sense, war offers only needless suffering. Ignorance to its evils is more needless still.

Taken collectively, burdens and risks seem subtle and are more easily dismissed. Most citizens prefer to avert their eyes than view war through honest lenses of fear, apathy, ignorance and guilt. The Pentagon, incidentally, seems quite happy with this arrangement.

More money, fewer victories

Americans have hardly exercised informed consent for their own defense. So few even comprehend the immensity of Pentagon largesse — the largest segment of the discretionary budget — its tradeoffs, or that it’s more than the next 10 countries combined (many of them U.S. allies).

Informed consent’s absence extends to the Overseas Contingency Operations account, a slush fund designed by defense hawks to circumvent spending controls imposed on all other government agencies.

Veteran: When I came home from Afghanistan, everyone wanted to know, 'Was it worth it?'

Such consent-free exorbitant expenditures might be excusable if they produced positive results. Only the U.S. military’s win/loss record since World War II is paltry at best: a tortured tie in Korea; losses in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq; and embarrassments in Beirut and Somalia — hardly offset by the “big” wins in small wars like Grenada and Panama. That scarcely justifies such extravagant spending. Yet fearmongering from the military-industrial-congressional complex, and cynically crafted cries to “support the troops,” stifle patriotic dissent.

Demands for informed consent are unlikely to emerge among Americans long trained to quietly capitulate to war industry whims. For now, it might fall on veterans themselves to disavow endless wars — the death and injury caused — and the unsustainable spending underpinning it all.

Maj. Gen. Dennis Laich retired from the Army after more than 35 years of service. He is a graduate of the Army War College and author of "Skin in the Game: Poor Kids and Patriots." Erik Edstrom graduated from West Point and deployed to combat as an infantry officer in Afghanistan. He is the author of "Un-American: A Soldier’s Reckoning of our Longest War." Both authors are senior fellows at the Eisenhower Media Network (EMN) — an organization of independent military and national security veteran experts.

Friday, February 5, 2021

Blinken holds first call with Chinese counterpart

 Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Chinese counterpart Friday, the first conversation between the two diplomats amid an adjustment in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. 

Blinken had a phone call with Chinese Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi to extend his best wishes for a happy lunar new year, according to a readout of the call from the State Department. The secretary of State pushed Yang on reports of human rights abuses against Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang and the crackdown of civil rights in Tibet and Hong Kong, among other security-related issues.

“Secretary Blinken stressed the United States will continue to stand up for human rights and democratic values, including in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and pressed China to join the international community in condemning the military coup in Burma,” the State Department said.

“The Secretary reaffirmed that the United States will work together with its allies and partners in defense of our shared values and interests to hold the [People's Republic of China] accountable for its efforts to threaten stability in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait, and its undermining of the rules-based international system,” it added. 

The conversation comes at a time of uncertainty in the relationship between the U.S. and China in the new Biden administration.

President Biden has adopted a tough stance on China over its crackdown on human rights and violence against the Uighurs, as well as its economic pressure on the U.S.

“American leadership must meet this new moment of advancing authoritarianism, including the growing ambitions of China to rival the United States,” Biden said this week at the State Department. “We'll confront China's economic abuses; counter its aggressive, coercive action; to push back on China's attack on human rights, intellectual property, and global governance.”

Biden is also reviewing his predecessor’s decision to designate China’s oppression of its minority Muslim Uighurs as genocide, though that review is being conducted to ensure procedures were followed, not to dispute the severity of the crackdown.

However, Biden has also expressed openness to working with China on climate change.

The interests of Washington and Beijing are intersecting in Myanmar, where a military coup is underway against a nascent democratic government. Biden is leaning on the military to stand down, but experts say he may be wary of applying too much pressure for fear of pushing the country further into China’s arms.

-----------------------update-------------------------

(Adds China foreign ministry statement)

WASHINGTON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State AntonyBlinken told top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in a phone call onFriday the United States will stand up for human rights anddemocratic values in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, the StateDepartment said.

Blinken also pressed China to condemn the military coup inMyanmar, and he reaffirmed that Washington will work with alliesto hold China accountable for efforts to threaten stability ofIndo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait, the departmentsaid in a statement.

Yang told Blinken that the United States should "correct"its recent mistakes and that both sides must respect eachother's political systems and development paths, according to astatement from the Chinese foreign ministry.

The relationship between the world's two biggest economieshit its lowest point in decades during the presidency of DonaldTrump, and Chinese officials have expressed cautious optimismthat it would improve under the administration of Joe Biden.

Yang told an online forum on Tuesday that he hoped relationsbetween the two countries could return to a predictable andconstructive track, but he called on the United States to "stopinterfering" on issues of Chinese sovereignty, includingXinjiang, Hong Kong and Tibet.

Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin also said on Fridaythat "the common interests of the two countries outweighed theirdifferences" and urged the United States to "meet China halfway"to improve relations.

However, criticism of China's human rights record hascontinued unabated, with the State Department saying on Thursdaythat it was "deeply disturbed" by reports of sexual abuseagainst women in internment camps for ethnic Uighurs and otherMuslims in Xinjiang..

Biden himself has shown little sign he is in a hurry toengage with Beijing, describing China on Thursday as "our mostserious competitor" and saying Washington would continue toconfront what he described as China's "attack on human rights,intellectual property and global governance".

"But we're ready to work with Beijing, when it's inAmerica's interest to do so," he added.

The Global Times, a tabloid run by Chinese Communist Partypaper the People's Daily, said in an editorial on Saturday thatit expected the Biden administration to keep talking tough whileimproving cooperation in some areas.

"This is obviously different from the later period ofTrump's administration, which had only hyped up antagonismbetween China and the U.S.," it said.(Reporting by Eric Beech and David Brunnstrom; Additionalreporting by David Stanway in Shanghai; Editing by Kim Coghilland Stephen Coates)


The BBC’s Horrifying Uyghur-Torture Story

 Comment by editor: this reminds us during WWII, the treatment of Jew by Nazi, which was also ignored by most countries and denied by the Nazi.

The BBC has published some of the most horrifying evidence yet of the Chinese Communist Party’s mass atrocities against the Uyghurs, detailing a disgusting campaign of systematic rape and torture.

An estimated 1 million Uyghurs — and other Turkic peoples in the Xinjiang region — are detained in the CCP’s concentration camps. The brave work of the victims of this modern gulag, as well as that of the reporters and researchers who have fought to bring their stories to light, has added granular detail to the world’s understanding of an ongoing crime against humanity. The BBC story is the latest emergency call for the world to speak the truth about what’s happening in Xinjiang, and do what it can to combat it.

The BBC story features the testimony of Tursunay Ziawudun, a Uyghur woman imprisoned for nine months in the camps. Weaving together the testimony of Ziawudun and other Uyghur detainees, interviews with teachers and police in Xinjiang, in addition to satellite and primary-source analysis corroborating their accounts, the BBC reporters show that the abuses go far beyond the regime’s aggressive program of political brainwashing.

The torture endured by these Uyghur women included rape and torture with electric batons, in addition to other unspeakable acts of sexual violence. At one point, a teacher forced to work in the camps recounts witnessing the gang rape of a 20- or 21-year-old girl perpetrated before an audience of 100 detainees; the authorities subsequently punished anyone with visibly distressed reaction. Such atrocities aren’t the work of individual sadists, but are deliberate and systematic, as dictated by China’s foul totalitarian regime and Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping.

At the end of its report, the BBC quotes Ziawudun, “They say people are released, but in my opinion everyone who leaves the camps is finished.” In her view, as the BBC puts it, that’s the point of the “surveillance, the internment, the indoctrination, the dehumanisation, the sterilization, the torture, the rape.” Ziawudun again: “Their goal is to destroy everyone. And everybody knows it.”

Indeed, everybody knows it, or should. The CCP’s campaign against the Uyghurs is not merely a disproportionate reaction to terrorist attacks and riots that took place in Xinjiang in the years leading up to the current “strike hard” campaign. The BBC report shows how rape is wielded in the camps as a weapon against the Uyghurs as a people. It’s also been used in Uyghur homes, where under a Party program, Han Chinese men are sent to live with and share the beds of women whose husbands have been detained. And in June, it was revealed that the Party is engaged in a systematic campaign to forcibly sterilize Uyghur women and abort their pregnancies.

This all fits into Beijing’s longstanding plan of settling the region with Han Chinese, and in this future, there is no place for the Uyghurs. The regime doesn’t just want to eliminate their culture; it seeks their physical annihilation.

Chinese officials have compared their treatment of the Uyghurs to spraying crop-killing chemicals, likening practicing Muslim Uyghurs to malignant tumors and Islam to a communicable disease.

The Chinese Communist Party is guilty of crimes against humanity and genocide, as the State Department found in January, and as Joe Biden said on the campaign trail and Antony Blinken affirmed during his confirmation hearing. The CCP’s brutality meets the internationally recognized legal definitions for these acts, including under the U.N.’s 1948 Genocide Convention. Debate over the meaning of these terms can be overly legalistic but being forthright about them might help galvanize more of an international response.

There’s been some progress on that front, mostly led by the United States, but few countries have even issued a sharp condemnation of the CCP’s campaign against the Uyghurs. The U.N. secretary general hasn’t. Washington stands alone in having enacted sanctions targeting the officials responsible. And despite recent governmental moves to crack down on Uyghur forced labor, too many multinational corporations remain ensnared in Xinjiang’s slave-labor-supported cotton industry.

For every story like Ziawudun’s, there are probably hundreds of thousands of others just as horrific. Absent a drastic course correction, we will learn many of them one day — while sharing in the collective shame of not having done more.

The Times Lavishes Praise on China’s Coronavirus Response and Calls It ‘Reporting’

 Isaac Schorr

The not-so-secret admirers of the Chinese Communist Party at the New York Times are at it again. For a long time, the Times’ opinion section has gawked at and fawned over the CCP and its ability to “get things done.” As far back as 2009, columnist Tom Friedman was arguing that “one-party autocracy” has “great advantages.” At least “when it is led by a reasonably enlightened group of people, as China is today.” Enlightened? Is that the word?

Sadly, Friedman’s admiration for the People’s Republic of China’s brand of authoritarianism has slowly bled into the news side as well, as evidenced by the publication of a new “reported” piece on China’s coronavirus response, titled “Power, Patriotism and 1.4 Billion People: How China Beat the Virus and Roared Back.”

The article begins by asserting that China “has mobilized its vast Communist Party apparatus to reach deep into the private sector and the broader population, in what the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, has called a ‘people’s war’ against the pandemic — and won.” Its four authors further celebrate the CCP by saying that its victory in this war — the Times appears to concur with the CCP’s self-assessment — has “emboldened Mr. Xi, who has offered China’s experience as a model for others to follow.” From the sound of it, so too is the Times.

That’s far from all the praise the authors lavish on Chairman Xi and his murderous regime. For example: “The government appeals to material interests, as well as to a sense of patriotism, duty and self-sacrifice,” they tell us. Moreover, the CCP provided a Chinese pharmaceutical firm with “everything it needed” to produce a vaccine: lab space and $780,000. For perspective, the U.S. government allocated $18 billion to Operation Warp Speed, which yielded safer and more effective inoculations.

The CCP “operates in part through fear,” they acknowledge, recounting how “when a villager near Shijiazhuang tried to escape quarantine to buy a pack of cigarettes, a zealous party chief ordered him tied to a tree.” But they follow that story with an unchallenged explanation from a Chinese journalist: “Many measures seemed over the top, but as far as they’re concerned it was necessary to go over the top, if you didn’t, it wouldn’t produce results.” Ah, of course.

Just as telling as what the Times does say is what it doesn’t.

You wouldn’t know it from reading the article, but in the Xinjiang region of China, the coronavirus has not slowed down Xi Jinping’s genocidal crusade against the PRC’s Uyghur Muslim minority. In fact, the state capacity of the Chinese government has only accelerated and accentuated their persecution. At present, 1 million Uyghurs are being held captive in concentration camps, and a new report from the BBC includes horrifying details about their treatment. Uyghur women inside and outside the camps are subject to CCP-sanctioned rape — often done in front of crowds as an intimidation tactic — as well as forced sterilizations and abortions. As National Review’s editorial on the matter put it:

This all fits into Beijing’s longstanding plan of settling the region with Han Chinese, and in this future, there is no place for the Uyghurs. The regime doesn’t just want to eliminate their culture; it seeks their physical annihilation.

The Times deems the CCP’s heavy-handed response to the pandemic “patriotic” and reflective of a dutiful Chinese ethic. Nothing could be further from the truth. In Xinjiang, coronavirus measures have included forcing Uyghurs to imbibe “traditional Chinese medicines” and subjecting them to other inhumane treatment. Consider the following story from the Associated Press last August:

When police arrested the middle-aged Uighur woman at the height of China’s coronavirus outbreak, she was crammed into a cell with dozens of other women in a detention center.

There, she said, she was forced to drink a medicine that made her feel weak and nauseous, guards watching as she gulped. She and the others also had to strip naked once a week and cover their faces as guards hosed them and their cells down with disinfectant “like firemen,” she said.

“It was scalding,” recounted the woman by phone from Xinjiang, declining to be named out of fear of retribution. “My hands were ruined, my skin was peeling.”

State power isn’t being wielded for patriotic purposes in China, it’s being used for the Party’s purposes. Some of those, such as curbing the pandemic, may have the intended outcomes. However, they have been implemented not because the CCP cares deeply about the best interests of the population, but because they provide stability, which the CCP values above all else. Patriotism is about devotion to one’s homeland, and by extension its inhabitants. There is no special bond between those at the head of the Chinese government and the Chinese people. The former is willing to intern, torture, and murder the latter to achieve its ends.

Failing to mention the CCP’s Xinjiang atrocities is bad enough. But also unmentioned in the Times piece is that the PRC used its state capacity — so venerated by the Times — to muzzle and jail doctors who dared to speak the truth about the virus, suppressing for weeks evidence of the human-to-human transmission of the virus and thus denying the rest of the world time to prepare. Remarkably, the Times’ reporters are also apparently unaware of the mountain of evidence suggesting that its case and death numbers have been doctored by the CCP. It’s easy to “win” when you control the scoreboard.

It’s a sign of moral confusion, or perhaps bankruptcy, for the New York Times to have published a puff piece — both clumsy and contextless — about a genocidal regime that unleashed a devastating pandemic on the rest of the world and call it “reporting.”

威权、爱国主义和14亿人:中国对新冠的“人民战争”

Comment by editor: let us read this article together with the next one "The Times Lavishes Praise on China’s Coronavirus Response and Calls It ‘Reporting’". Great example of freedom of speech.

命令是1月12日夜里下达的。几天前,环绕北京的河北省暴发了新的新冠病毒疫情。中国政府的应对方案既大胆又直截了当:必须建设一个预制房的完整小镇把人隔离起来,项目于次日一大早开工。

部分工作落在了建筑公司老板韦烨的身上,他将在征用来的农田上搭建安装1300个预制房。

韦烨说,合同、图纸、材料订单——所有事情“经过几个小时都给落实了”。他还说,他和手下为了赶工拼死拼活地工作。

“这个压力肯定是会有,”他说,但他也为能尽自己的一份力量感到“特别光荣”。


在新冠病毒肆虐全球的这一年里,中国已经做了许多其他国家不愿或不能做的事情。使用同等程度的强迫与劝说,中国调动起庞大的共产党机构,渗入到私营部门和广大人口之中,对大流行病展开了一场国家领导人习近平所说的“人民战争”,并取得了胜利。

中国现在正在从中收获长期的好处。当新冠病毒最早在中国中部城市武汉出现、中国领导层似乎处于1989年“六四”事件以来最紧张时刻的时候,这个结局几乎没人预见到。

这一成功已让中国在经济和外交上处于有利地位,反击美国和其他担忧其不可阻挡的崛起的国家。这一成功也让习近平更有信心,他将中国经验作为榜样提供给他国。

虽然当初武汉的官员们曾因担心政治后果而犹豫不决、行动迟缓,但现在只要有新感染的迹象出现,当局就会立即采取有时甚至是过头的行动。今年1月,河北当局马上动用了中国早已练就的策略,对数百万人进行病毒检测,将整个社区隔离起来——所有这些做法的目的,是让官方通报的感染病例——14亿人口中每天仅几十例——归零。

中国政府采用了多年来的惯用做法,在基础设施项目上投入大量资金,同时为支持企业发放贷款并减税,以避免出现与大流行病有关的裁员。尽管去年年初曾出现萎缩,但中国目前是恢复了稳定增长的唯一主要经济体。

在疫苗研发方面,政府为疫苗生产商建新厂提供土地、贷款和补贴,还提供了快速审批渠道。两种中国疫苗正在大规模生产中;更多的疫苗即将到来。尽管中国疫苗表现的效力低于西方竞争对手的疫苗,但已有24个国家签约购买,因为在政府的敦促下,中国公司承诺更快地供货。

新西兰和韩国等其他国家没有采取严厉措施,也已很好地遏制了病毒,在民主制度下,中国式的严厉措施政治上不可接受。但在中国领导人眼里,这些国家没有可比性。

北京在遏制大流行病的各个方面,包括医疗、外交和经济方面取得的成功,让其更加坚信其迅速调动人员和资源的威权主义能力,认为这让它具有美国等其他大国没有的决定性优势。这是一个强调不惜一切追求结果,并且需要公众默然接受的模式。

按照这种观点,中共不仅必须控制政府和国有企业,还必须控制私营企业和个人生活,将集体的好处置于个人利益之上。

“他们能够将这个一党专政国家的所有资源调动起来,”纽约福特汉姆大学(Fordham University)中国法律与政治学教授明克胜(Carl Minzner)说。“这当然既包括强制性工具——对上百万人的流动实行严格的强制性限制,也包括可能是中国独有的高效率官僚工具。”

通过这样做,中国共产党当局压制了言论、管束并清洗了异见观点,并且扼杀了任何个人自由或流动的概念——这种做法在任何民主社会都是不得人心且不能为人所接受的。

在中共领导层中,一种被证明是正确的感觉显而易见。在2020年的最后几天,中国的最高政治机构——由七名成员组成的中共中央政治局常务委员会——在北京召开了一个相当于年度政绩评估的会议,理论上,常委们能在会上对自己和同事进行批评。

他们非但未对任何不足之处有任何暗示——例如,中国在全球面临着日益增长的不信任,反而高度赞扬了中共的领导力。

“当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,但时与势在我们一边,”习近平在1月的另一个会议上对官员说。

全党动员起来

最近几周,随着新感染病例不断出现,国务院发布了覆盖面很广的新通知。“反弹风险丝毫不能忽视,”通知说。

这些规定反映了中国政治体制的微观管理本质,在这个体制中,最高领导人拥有从中央政治决策机构操纵每条街道,甚至每座公寓楼的控制杆。

国务院要求各省市设立24小时指挥中心,主管人员将就本地的表现问责。国务院的通知要求,设立足够多的集中隔离点,不仅要在阳性病毒检测结果出来后的12小时内将人隔离起来,还要对与病毒检测呈阳性者有过密切接触过的数百人进行严格隔离。

人口在500万以下的城市,必须具备在两天内完成全员检测的能力。人口超过500万的城市,需要具备在三到五天内完成全员检测的能力。

这种动员的关键在于中共调动其庞大官员网络的能力,每个地区的每个部门和机构里都有中共官员。

政府可以很容易地将“志愿者”部署到新的热点地区,包括在今年1月的新疫情暴发后将4000多名医务人员派往河北。“身为共产党员,走在人民最前面,”以入党为夙愿的20岁大学生白岩说。

有1100万人口的石家庄是被封城的城市之一。石家庄郊外一个村子里的共产党员周小森说,派来的人能帮助管理违规者,也可以帮助有需要的人。“如果出去买点药和菜,我们代理,”他说。

政府既用实际利益,也用爱国主义、责任感和自我牺牲精神来号召人民。

帮助建造石家庄附近集中隔离点的国有承包商中铁十四局集团公开发出请战书,让员工宣誓为抗疫不遗余力。请战书上写道,“不计报酬,不讲条件,不打折扣,无论生死”,还有员工的签名和按的红色指印。

官员网络的运作部分也有赖于恐惧。由于新冠疫情管控不力,去年已有5000多名地方党政官员被免职。这个体制基本上不鼓励官员采取节制做法。

中国东北城市通化的居民最近抱怨,政府官员在没有为食品供应和其他需求做好充分准备的情况下突然封城。石家庄附近的一名村民试图偷偷跑出隔离点去买包香烟后,过激的村支书下令将他绑在树上。

“很多措施看起来是过头了,但是这些过头的措施对他们来说是必要的,”一家中国报纸的前编辑、作家陈敏说。武汉封城期间,他一直在武汉。“不过头就没有效果。”

对政府在危机早期的不作为和掩盖做法的愤怒已经消退,这是这个制度压制坏消息和批评的后果。中国的成功已在很大程度上将那些可能对中共从中央控制一切提出异议的声音淹没了。通过警告,甚至监禁那些挑战其胜利故事版本的活动人士,当局也重塑了公共叙事。

刚开始的时候,新冠病毒大流行似乎暴露了“习近平式治理的根本性病态”,华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)研究员裘德·布兰切特(Jude Blanchette)说。

“事实上,在经过一段时间后回过头来看,我们看到这个系统在很大程度上以习近平所希望的方式发挥了作用,”他补充说。

河北实施的这些措施迅速见效。2月初,该省记录了一个月以来首次没有出现新冠病毒感染者的一天。

 经济复苏

在许多国家,关于如何在保护公众健康和保持经济运行之间取得平衡存在着激烈争论。在中国几乎没有。两件事它都做到了。

即使是去年的武汉,在76天里,当局几乎将所有地方都封闭了,但他们允许主要工业继续运营,包括钢铁厂和半导体工厂。他们在小规模疫情发生时也采用了这一策略,以大大小小的方式,不遗余力地帮助企业。

中国的经验强调了许多专家提出过、但很少有国家遵循的建议:疫情越快得到控制,经济就能越快复苏。

虽然危机初期的经济阵痛很严重,但大多数企业就算关闭也只关闭了几周。几乎没有合同被取消。几乎没有工人被解雇,部分原因是政府极力阻止企业这样做,并通过贷款和减税提供帮助。

“我们统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展工作,抓紧恢复生产生活秩序,”习近平在去年说。

浙江华远汽车零部件有限公司仅仅停产了17天。在地方当局帮助下,该公司租用大巴车把春节期间分散在各地的工人接了回来——由于中国大部分地区一开始都处于封锁状态,返工不太容易。政府的通行证让他们的大巴车可以通过限制通行的检查站。

工人们只能在工厂和宿舍之间走动,经常接受体温检测。公司的大客户比亚迪开始生产口罩,并将货物运到华远。

很快,公司接到的订单就超过了它的处理能力。

安徽省的一家救护车制造商迅速增加了生产,购买了华远生产的螺丝、螺栓和其他紧固件。后来,随着病毒的传播和海外供应商的停产,中国汽车制造商也开始需要这些产品。

“我们对客户进行了筛选优化。附加值不是特别高的业务,我就不要了,”该公司副总经理陈锡颖说。“一些回款也好,业务发展前景不是特别好的客户,我们就把它剔除了。”

和中国一样,华远迅速反弹。到4月,该公司已订购了近1000万美元的新设备,以启动第二条高度自动化的生产线。该公司计划在现有340名员工的基础上再增加47名技术人员。

疫情暴发前,跨国公司开始在中国之外寻找业务,一定程度上是受到特朗普政府与北京贸易战的刺激。病毒本身也加剧了人们对依赖中国供应链的担忧。

然而,在世界其他地区努力保持商业开放之际,疫情却加强了中国的主导地位。

联合国贸易与发展会议(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)的数据显示,去年,中国出人意料地首次超过美国,成为外国直接投资的目的地。在全球范围内,投资暴跌42%,而中国的投资增长了4%。

“尽管疫情造成了人员伤亡和破坏,但从经济角度看,这对中国来说是因祸得福,”上海高等金融学院副院长朱宁表示。

外交工具

去年2月,当新冠病毒肆虐武汉时,中国最大的疫苗生产企业之一科兴生物技术公司没有能力开发一种能够阻止它的新疫苗。

公司缺乏一个高度安全的实验室来进行所需的高风险研究。它没有能够生产注射剂的工厂,也没有建厂的资金。

因此,该公司首席执行官尹卫东向政府寻求帮助。2月27日,他会见了中共中央政治局委员蔡奇和北京市市长、环境科学家陈吉宁。

在那之后,科兴拥有了它所需要的一切。

官员允许其研究人员进入全国最安全的实验室之一。他们提供了78万美元,并指派政府科学家协助。

他们还为北京一个地区的新工厂建设铺平了道路。市政府捐赠了这块土地。以北京市为主要股东的北京银行提供了一笔920万美元的低息贷款。

当科兴需要一种通常要18个月才能从国外进口的发酵罐时,政府命令另一家制造商全天24小时不停工作,把它们生产出来。

这是习近平在武汉封城两天后的政治局常委会议上所概述的那种政府全面动员的做法。他敦促中国“加快治疗药品和疫苗研发”,北京也投入了大量资源。

私营公司康希诺生物与中国人民解放军合作,不眠不休地工作,在3月前生产出第一批试验药剂。国有制药公司国药集团在三天半的时间里获得了建厂所需的政府资助。

科兴的尹卫东将该项目称为“克冠行动”,以配合国家抗击疫情的战时用语。“也就是只有在这样的综合条件保障下才能使一个车间投入运行,”他对官方报纸《新京报》表示。

在尹卫东2月27日的会议结束后不到三个月,科兴就研制出了一种可进行人体试验的疫苗,并建立了一家大型工厂。该公司每天生产40万支疫苗,希望今年能生产10亿支。

为本国制造疫苗的快速过程最终打开了另一种机遇。

随着新冠病毒在国内基本被扑灭,中国可以向海外销售更多的疫苗。这些疫苗“将作为全球公共产品”,习近平去年5月在世界卫生大会上承诺。

尽管官员们对这种说法感到愤怒,但“疫苗外交”已成为一种工具,用来平息部分对中国失误的愤怒,在中国受到来自美国和其他国家的压力之际,帮助支撑其全球地位。

“这就是中国可以发挥作用的地方,看上去像一个真正的救世主,像一个患难时期的朋友,”前比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会(Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation)中国负责人叶雷(Ray Yip)说。

中国国内的效率并没有轻松转化为在国外的胜利。中国疫苗的有效性较低。巴西和土耳其的官员已经抱怨过延误。尽管如此,许多迄今已同中国签约的国家承认,他们无法为美国人或欧洲人制造的疫苗等待数月。

1月16日,塞尔维亚成为第一个接受中国疫苗的欧洲国家——大约100万剂,疫苗来自国药控股。该国总统亚历山大·武契奇(Aleksandr Vučić)在寒风中与中国大使站在一起,欢迎第一批飞机运送的物资。

他告诉记者,他“不怕炫耀”与中国的关系。

“我对此感到自豪,并将投入越来越多的时间和努力,来创造甚至改善我们与中国领导人和中国人民的良好关系。”

Thursday, February 4, 2021

Sacrifices required to avert cross-strait war: former U.S. official

 Washington, Feb. 3 (CNA) Taiwan must be ready to make sacrifices and bolster its military preparedness in order to prevent a possible war with China, a former U.S. security official said Wednesday.

Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security advisor under former President Donald Trump, urged the U.S. and other nations to take "substantive" actions to help Taiwan avert a potential conflict with China.

People in Taiwan must also "understand how significant and dangerous" the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become, as a result of Beijing's expansionist ambitions, Pottinger said during an international relations conference at Florida International University.

"The people of Taiwan should really rally around their leadership and understand that they are going to have to make sacrifices," Pottinger warned. "There are things that they're going to have to do to prepare for war in order to hopefully deter war."

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Jim Risch told the conference that China's crackdown on Hong Kong last year had made the question of Taiwan's future "all the more urgent and serious."

The military balance of power between China and Taiwan is shifting, which is eroding conventional deterrence and putting the U.S. military and its allies at risk, Risch said.

In addition to Taiwan's importance as a democracy, its geography is also key to the security of U.S. allies, and its technology is critical to global competition with China, he said.

On those grounds, Risch said, Taiwan is "one of the most strategic issues we face in this decade," and "must remain a key priority" for the U.S.

Another speaker at the conference, Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law (羅冠聰), suggested the U.S. send a message that it is not intimidated by China. This can be achieved though greater interaction by the U.S. with Taiwan and its leaders, he said.

At the same time, the U.S. must recognize the "concrete threat" of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, said Law, who fled to the United Kingdom last year for fear of persecution under Hong Kong's new national security law.

Citing conversations with reporters in China, Law said Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had promised to tackle the Taiwan issue, in a bid to have his term limits lifted.

If that is true, Xi would likely feel pressured to accomplish such a goal by force, given that it would be "impossible" to do so using infiltration, soft power or other peaceful means, Law said.

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...