Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Britain ended the horror of school shootings after one single massacre

 On March 13, 1996, an ostracized former Boy Scout leader around whom rumors of pedophilia had swirled for years, walked into the gym of Dunblane Primary School and fired at children aged five and six gathered at a gym class.

In minutes, 15 children and one teacher were dead. Another child died later from gunshot wounds. At least 17 others were injured before the attack ended with Thomas Hamilton shooting himself. The Scottish town—and all of Britain—were plunged into mourning. The Queen came and knelt at the school. Teddy bears poured in from all over the world.

Columbine wouldn’t happen for another three years; Sandy Hook was over a decade away. The shooting at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, would not happen for two decades. Yesterday’s shooting of 20 people, mostly children, at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, was nearly 30 years away. For a brief moment, the mass school shooting was a British horror.

Eight days after the shooting, Britain’s parliament convened a tribunal headed by Lord W. Douglas Cullen, a senior Scottish judge at the time, to conduct a public inquiry into the shooting. It opened on May 29 in the Scottish town of Stirling, and sat for 26 days. The entire proceeding was open to the public and recorded in full in shorthand.

Queen Elizabeth places a floral bouquet in front of Dunblane Primary School March 17, 1996.
Queen Elizabeth visited Dunblane Primary School on March 17, 1996.

“One’s worst nightmare”

In the report Cullen submitted on Sept. 30, 1996 (pdf), he said he sought answers to two questions:

-What were the circumstances leading up to and surrounding the shootings at Dunblane Primary School on 13 March 1996?

-What should I recommend with a view to safeguarding the public against the misuse of firearms and other dangers which the investigation brought to light?

Hamilton had come armed with four handguns and 743 rounds of ammunition (pdf). He fired about 105 bullets, police experts testified. His attack came before school shootings had become something schools prepared for with drills and plans—and before they were routinely carried out by other students. In that innocent time, when the Dunblane school principal heard loud bangs from another part of the school, he thought it was building work that he hadn’t been told about. After a teacher burst into his office and told him what was happening, he he ran to the gym, where he witnessed “a scene of unimaginable carnage, one’s worst nightmare,” he told the inquiry later.

In his report, Cullen wrote that the safety of the public could be better ensured by focusing efforts on the sale and availability of guns, rather than on the fitness of a potential buyer. Looking at whether Hamilton would have been prevented from carrying out the shooting with stricter purchasing law, he concluded that, despite longstanding uneasiness over the shooter’s behavior, laws intended to exclude potentially dangerous gun buyers would be unlikely, on their own, to prevent a future massacre:

Despite the fact that there is room for improvement in the certification system I conclude that there are significant limitations in what can be done to exclude those who are unsuitable to have firearms and ammunition. There is no certain means of ruling out the onset of a mental illness of a type which gives rise to danger; or of identifying those whose personalities harbour dangerous propensities. On this ground alone it is insufficient protection for the public merely to tackle the individual rather than the gun.

Cullen recommended that the government either implement a system to disable handguns owned by individuals and keep them at sports clubs when they were not being used for sports purposes, or if that was not practical, consider banning multishot handguns.

Ban guns? Might as well ban cricket bats, then

Britain might not have had the cult of the Second Amendment—that twinning of gun ownership and the most cherished of American documents, along with a powerfully funded gun lobby in the shape of National Rifle Association—but it too had a culture of gun ownership and shooting for sport.

REUTERS
A demonstrator in London’s Trafalgar Square takes part in a protest against proposed gun control laws in February 1997.

Britain’s gun lobby had taken action to limit discussions of gun law changes after an earlier mass shooting in 1987—though Britain did ban semi-automatic weapons after that attack—and sought to fend off a handgun ban, but was unsuccessful. In December 1997 the House of Commons voted by a wide margin for Labour Party legislation to effectively ban all handguns, a law that went even further than the ban proposed by Conservative prime John Major before he lost power in elections that year.

More than 160,000 handguns would have to be handed in. Gun owners and hunting aficionados weren’t happy. Among them was Prince Philip, Queen Elizabeth’s husband, who uttered a very English version of the objection that NRA members have voiced again and again.

“If a cricketer, for instance, suddenly decided to go into a school and batter a lot of people to death with a cricket bat, which he could do very easily, I mean are you going to ban cricket bats?” the Queen’s spouse said. (He later apologized after Dunblane families expressed anger over his comments.)

If not after Sandy Hook, then when?

For people nearly numbed by seeing mass shootings grow into an epidemic in the US over the past three decades, it seemed unthinkable at first that the shooting of 26 people, mostly first graders, at Sandy Hook school in Newton, Conn., in 2012 would not be a turning point. How could America possibly let such a thing happen again? But despite the endless deaths, gun culture in the US is a different beast. Less than 20% of people favor a handgun ban, and only a little over a third of people want gun laws to be stricter. Despite sorrow and outrage over these tragic school shootings, nothing has changed.

In Texas, where an 18-year-old man yesterday carried out the 27th school shooting this year in the US, gun laws have been relaxed in recent years.

It’s always possible that Britain could see such rampages again. Yet the fact that there appears to have been only one mass shooting since Dunblane, in 2010, suggests the legislation had its intended effect. That’s a credit to the Dunblane inquiry, and to the lawmakers who were persuaded by the grassroots campaigning of Dunblane parents—backed by a public revulsed by the massacre. The details of that day will never be forgotten by the parents whose lives were changed forever. But, unlike the parents of Columbine, or Newton, who have only seen their numbers swell in the US over the years, the Dunblane parents are a rarity. Their experience—and that of their children—hasn’t been suffered by other children and other parents in the UK.

I was in London at the time the Dunblane inquiry took place, and it stood out among other memories that punctuated the cultural moment Britain was living through that summer: Orange marches in Northern Ireland, Bridget Jones’s diary (the newspaper column, not the book or movie), mad cow panic. When there’s a school shooting in the US, I often think back to the summer of 1996, and our innocent shock that such a thing could happen. For young people in Britain, though, certainly those under 30, the details of the Dunblane shooting may be quite vague. The only thing they might know for sure happened in Dunblane was Andy Murray’s wedding in 2015—the tennis star was a fourth grader at the school at the time of the shooting—in the same cathedral from where the funeral of the 18 victims was broadcast live.

Their forgetfulness isn’t a shame. It’s a triumph for a country that understood immediately that a society that allows children to be shot in its schools is a society that is failing. Britain didn’t merely pay lip service to the idea that life— particularly the youngest of lives—matters. It did its best to make it so.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

全国政协委员:价值观颠倒必导致国运逆转

 俄乌战争在某种意义上是拷问世界各国的是非观、道德观、价值观的试金石。中华民族为什么历尽数千年灾劫而能自立于世界民族之林?其中一个重要原因,是这个民族的文化内核自古以来严格区分“义”与“不义”,将“义”作为“道”的要素,“得道多助,失道寡助”。以此为准则划分,“侵略”就是“不义”,“反侵略”就是“义”。正是基于这样的价值观,我们崇敬岳飞、文天祥、史可法、张自忠,因为他们反侵略是代表“义”的民族英雄。我们鄙视、痛恨秦桧、吴三桂、汪精卫,因为这些汉奸是代表“不义”的附和、投降侵略者的卖国贼。中华民族这些朴素的“忠奸观”与“反对侵略,保卫和平”普世价值是相互贯通的!

2001年震惊世界的九一一恐怖袭击事件发生,当时中国政府顺应尊重人命、人的价值的普世价值观,立场坚定、旗帜鲜明支持美国反恐,结果获美国投桃报李,支持中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO),令中国搭上全球经济一体化列车,迅速发展为世界第二大经济体。在某种意义上,正是中国站到正确的价值观所取得的成果。

判断俄乌战争的性质,判断哪国是正义一方、哪国是非正义一方的标准,公认就是如下几条:一、看战争是遵守还是违反联合国宪章有关尊重国家主权和领土完整的规定?二、战争是谁发动的?三、是哪一方首先越过另一方国境?战争在哪一方国土进行?四、是哪一国造成另一国平民死伤?五、被入侵的国家人民欢迎还是抗击外来军队?六、国际社会主流舆论对战争的定性;七、联合国大多数成员国的立场;八、国际法庭的裁决。

根据俄罗斯2月24日从陆海空全方位入侵乌克兰全境、对乌国各大城市包括首都基辅狂轰滥炸,造成平民死伤和数百万痛失家园的难民,甚至扬言不惜使用核武器威胁人类生存、人类文明,以及布查镇惨案等等铁的事实,国际舆论和联合国大多数会员国及国际法庭都裁定俄罗斯侵略,定性并予以谴责,同时对俄实施严厉的国际制裁。显而易见,从价值观来衡量,俄罗斯的侵略是非正义的,乌克兰的反侵略是正义的。以事件本身是非曲直而言,毫无疑问应该义无反顾谴责俄罗斯侵略,支持乌克兰反侵略。

令人不解的是,中国外交系统对俄侵乌迄今拒不定性为“侵略”,拒不作“谴责”表态;而且国内舆论场舖天盖地充斥为俄罗斯侵略乌克兰拍手叫好、为“普京大帝”摇旗呐喊、为俄“核讹诈”擂鼓助威的荒谬言论。外部世界认为,在中国强调“媒体是党的喉舌”和对网络舆论强力监控的社会环境,很难认为反美撑俄狂潮不是官方主导和授意。这种价值观的颠倒令国际社会触目惊心,只会为“中国威胁论”磨盘注水。加上“马克思是对的”官方宣传和近年来中国政治、经济、法治、社会、外交等方面的逆转,肯定令西方国家认定中共从政治体制到价值观,始终“赤化世界之心不死”。

抱着这样的价值观的国家崛起,对国际秩序和世界和平只会带来破坏性而非建设性。故此,以俄侵乌事件中国的表现为契机,对中国价值观“哀莫大于心死”,今后军事上加强防范,经济上逐步脱鈎,外交上加以孤立,甚至对中国实行类似对付俄罗斯那样的国际制裁,是必然的发展趋势。中国若为一时的中俄“战略伙伴关係”颠覆永恒的价值观,必将赌上国运的逆转,付出前所未有的惨重代价,令40几年改革开放成果付诸东流,绝对是颠覆性的历史错误。对中华民族整整一代人的是非判断、道德标准、价值取向的戕害,可谓后患无穷。

值得注意的是,4月27日美国众议院以394票赞成、3票反对,通过了《轴心法案》,将从经济、金融、贸易、军事、科技、信息、舆论等方面监察中国是否支援俄罗斯、削弱美国及盟国对俄罗斯的制裁,一旦抓到把柄,就会对中国也实施类似的严厉制裁和孤立。令人担心的是,目前海外很多人发起“大翻译运动”,誓言将内地极左舆论场支持俄罗斯侵略的胡言乱语传译给外部世界。届时,国际社会如何看待中国的国家形象?如何看待中国人的价值观?没有令人信服的价值观,如何自立于世界民族之林?

按照某些人的逻辑,俄罗斯侵略、肢解乌克兰的行为不是“侵略”,不该“谴责”或“谴责无济于事”;甚至在中国得到高层青睐的所谓网红李光满之流,公然宣称俄罗斯侵略乌克兰是“反对美国霸权主义的正义斗争”,胡说“一旦战争爆发,中国只有俄罗斯一个盟友”“一定要并肩作战”云云。更有甚者,谁支持乌克兰反侵略,谁重提沙俄、苏联侵佔、肢解中国领土的历史,就被骂成“汉奸”“卖国贼”,价值观的颠倒到了无以复加的地步。照那些官方、民间俄粉逻辑,岂不是历史教科书关于日本侵华的九一八事变、七七事变、南京大屠杀等的定性,也要接受日本右翼分子把“侵略”窜改为“进入”“大东亚共荣圈是为了驱除美欧殖民势力”等论述呢?是否要把歴史颠倒重写呢?

根本价值观是一个民族的脊梁。基于俄罗斯侵乌事件的反应,折射出当今中国相当部分人是非观、价值观的崩塌,犹如一个民族脊梁骨的折断。因此我认为:中华民族到了最危险的时候!一定要审时度势,把握契机,拨乱反正,回到“反对侵略,保卫和平”的道德高地。面对“俄罗斯进攻基辅”而不是“乌克兰进攻莫斯科”的基本事实,必须旗帜鲜明将俄罗斯定性为侵略者,与之划清界线并予以谴责,才能融入和平与发展主流,避免被国际社会制裁、孤立的命运。否则,什么改革开放、什么“中华民族伟大复兴”“中国梦”,都成为空话。一个价值观沦丧的民族,肯定被国际社会鄙视、唾弃,是没有希望的。

作者是退休中国全国政协委员百家战略智库主席

【转载请加上出处和链接:https://yibaochina.com/?p=246529】

Sunday, May 15, 2022

尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利认为,乌克兰局势关系到人类历史的方向

 尤瓦尔·赫拉利(Yuval Noah Harari),1976年生于以色列,牛津大学历史学博士,青年怪才、全球瞩目的新锐历史学家。著有《人类简史》《今日简史》《未来简史》。现任耶路撒冷希伯来大学的历史系教授。

最近乌克兰局势引起广泛关注,下文是尤瓦尔·赫拉利发表的一篇时评
人类最大的政治成就是战争的减少,然而现在正处于战争边缘
尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利
2022 年 月 2022 年 月 11 日更新
乌克兰危机的核心是一个关于历史本质和人类本质的根本问题:改变可能吗?人类能否改变他们的行为方式,或者历史是否会无休止地重演,人类永远注定要重演过去的悲剧,除了矫揉装饰之外什么都没改变?
一个学派坚决否认改变的可能性。它认为世界是一片丛林,强者掠夺弱者,唯一能阻止一个国家攻城略地的就是军事力量。一直都是这样,而且永远都是这样。那些不相信丛林法则的人不仅在自欺欺人,而且正在将自己的生存置于危险之中。他们不会活太久。
另一个学派认为,所谓的丛林法则根本不是自然法则。人类创造了它,人类可以改变它。与普遍的误解相反,有组织的战争的第一个明确证据仅出现在13,000 年前的考古记录中。即使在那之后,也有许多时期没有考古证据显示存在战争。与重力不同,战争不是自然的基本力量。它的强度和存在取决于潜在的技术、经济和文化因素。随着这些因素的变化,战争也会发生变化。
这种变化的证据无处不在。在过去的几代人中,核武器已经将超级大国之间的战争变成了集体自杀的疯狂行为,迫使地球上最强大的国家寻找不那么暴力的方式来解决冲突。尽管大国战争,如第二次布匿战争或第二次世界大战,在历史的大部分时间里一直是一个显着特征,但在过去的七十年里,超级大国之间并没有发生直接战争。
同一时期,全球经济已经从以物质为基础的经济向以知识为基础的经济转型。曾经财富的主要来源是金矿、麦田和油井等物质资产,而今天财富的主要来源是知识。虽然你可以通过武力夺取油田,但你无法通过这种方式获取知识。结果,征服的收益率下降了。
最后,全球文化发生了结构性转变。历史上的许多精英——例如匈奴酋长、维京领主和罗马贵族——对战争持积极态度。从萨尔贡大帝到贝尼托·墨索里尼,统治者都试图通过征服来使自己永垂不朽(荷马和莎士比亚等艺术家很乐意接受这种幻想)。其他精英,如基督教会,将战争视为邪恶但不可避免的。
然而,在过去的几代人中,世界历史上第一次被精英统治,他们认为战争既邪恶又可以避免。甚至像乔治·W·布什和唐纳德·特朗普这样的人,更不用说世界上的默克尔和阿尔登(新西兰总理),与匈奴阿提拉或哥特阿拉里克都是截然不同的政治家。他们通常带着对国内改革的梦想而不是征服外国的梦想上台。同时在艺术和思想领域,从巴勃罗`毕加索到斯坦利`库布里克的大多数主要人物都以描绘战斗中毫无意义的恐怖而不是颂扬其发起者而闻名。
由于所有这些变化,大多数政府不再将侵略战争视为促进其利益的可接受工具,大多数国家也不再幻想征服和吞并邻国。仅靠军事力量就可以阻止巴西征服乌拉圭或阻止西班牙入侵摩洛哥,这根本是不正确的。
和平的参数
在众多统计数据中,战争的衰落是显而易见的。1945年以来,外国入侵重新划定国际边界的情况比较少见,没有一个国际公认的国家由于被外部征服完全从地图上抹去。不乏其他类型的冲突,例如内战和叛乱。但即使考虑到所有类型的冲突,在21 世纪的前二十年,人类暴力造成的死亡人数也少于自杀、车祸或与肥胖相关的疾病。火药的杀伤力已不如糖。
学者们就确切的统计数据争论不休,但重要的是要超越数学。战争的衰落既是一种心理现象,也是一种统计现象。它最重要的特点是和平一词的含义发生了重大变化。在历史的大部分时间里,和平只意味着暂时没有战争1913年人们说法德两国和平,意思是法德军队没有直接冲突,但谁都知道,他们之间的战争随时可能爆发。
近几十年来,和平已经意味着战争的不可信。对于许多国家来说,被邻国侵略和征服几乎是不可想象的。我住在中东,所以我非常清楚这些趋势也有例外。但认识到趋势至少与能够指出例外情况一样重要。
新和平并不是统计上的侥幸或嬉皮士的幻想。这在冰冷计算的预算中得到了最清楚的反映。近几十年来,世界各国政府感到足够安全,平均只将约6.5% 的预算用于武装部队,而在教育、医疗保健和福利方面的支出则要多得多。
我们倾向于认为它是理所当然的,但它在人类历史上是一个惊人的新奇事物。几千年来,军费一直是每个王子、可汗、苏丹和皇帝的预算中最大的项目。他们几乎没有花一分钱为群众提供教育或医疗救助。
战争的衰落并非来自神迹或自然法则的改变。这是人类做出更好选择的结果。它可以说是现代文明最伟大的政治和道德成就。不幸的是,它源于人类选择的事实也意味着它是可逆的。
技术、经济和文化不断变化。网络武器的兴起、人工智能驱动的经济和新的军国主义文化可能会导致一个新的战争时代,比我们以前看到的任何情况都要糟糕。为了享受和平,我们几乎需要每个人都做出正确的选择。相比之下,仅一方的错误选择可能会导致战争。
这就是为什么地球上的每一个人都应该关注俄罗斯威胁入侵乌克兰。如果强国狼吞虎咽地击败弱小的邻国再次成为常态,这将影响全世界人民的感受和行为方式。回到丛林法则的第一个也是最明显的结果将是军费开支的急剧增加,而将以牺牲其他一切为代价。原本应该分配给教师、护士和社会工作者的钱,将转而用于坦克、导弹和网络武器。
重返丛林还将破坏全球在防止灾难性气候变化或监管人工智能和基因工程等颠覆性技术等问题上的合作。与准备消灭你的国家一起工作并不容易。随着气候变化和人工智能军备竞赛的加速,武装冲突的威胁只会进一步升级,直到物种毁灭才能结束这个恶性循环。
历史的方向
如果你认为历史性的改变是不可能的,并且人类从未离开丛林,也永远不会离开,那么剩下的唯一选择就是扮演捕食者或猎物的角色。有了这样的选择,大多数领导者宁愿作为阿尔法掠夺者载入史册,并将他们的名字添加到倒霉学生们在历史考试中不得不记住的严峻征服者名单中。
但也许改变是可能的?也许丛林法则是一种选择而不是必然?如果是这样,任何选择征服邻居的领导人都将在人类记忆中占有特殊的地位,远比普通的帖木儿更糟糕。他将作为毁掉我们最伟大成就的人载入史册。就在我们以为我们已经离开丛林的时候,他把我们拉了回来。
我不知道乌克兰会发生什么。但作为一名历史学家,我确实相信改变的可能性。我不认为这是幼稚——这是现实主义。人类历史唯一不变的就是变化。这也许是我们可以向乌克兰人学习的东西。几代人以来,乌克兰人对暴政和暴力一无所知。他们忍受了两个世纪的沙皇专制(最终在第一次世界大战的灾难中崩溃)。重新建立俄罗斯统治的红军很快粉碎了一次短暂的独立尝试。乌克兰人随后经历了可怕的大饥荒、斯大林主义恐怖、纳粹占领和数十年令人心碎的共产主义独裁统治的人为饥荒。苏联解体时,历史似乎预示乌克兰人会再次走上残酷的暴政之路——他们还有别的办法吗?
但他们作了不同选择不同。尽管历史悠久,尽管极度贫困和有看似无法克服的障碍,乌克兰人还是建立了民主国家。在乌克兰,与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯不同,反对派候选人一再更换现任议员。在2004 年和 2013 年面临独裁威胁时,乌克兰人两次站起来捍卫自己的自由。他们的民主是新事物。新和平也是如此。两者都很脆弱,可能不会持续很长时间。但两者都是可能的,并且可能会扎根。每一件旧事都曾经是新的。这一切都归结为人类的选择。
作者:Yuval Harari 

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Is another Russia even possible?

 Sat, May 7, 2022, 12:56 AM

Russian flag
Russian flag

One that will not unleash wars of aggression, will not sow destruction and death for the sake of asserting its imaginary greatness.

This "other Russia" is often associated with Russian liberals who oppose the Putin regime. Like Alexei Navalny, for example. But this is another dangerous illusion.

Realizing how dangerous and anti-human the Russian terrorist state is, many still do not realize the problem does not lie only with Putin.

Read also: More than 70% of Russians support war against Ukraine, according to survey

The invasion of Hungary was led by Nikita Khrushchev, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan was led by Leonid Brezhnev, the killings of peaceful demonstrators in Tbilisi and Vilnius by Mikhail Gorbachev, the occupation of Georgia and Moldova and the bloody massacre in Chechnya were initiated by Boris Yeltsin.

Putin has used terror, assassinations and wars of aggression as public policy, based on the chauvinistic sentiments of the majority of Russians.

With a few marginal exceptions, the Russian opposition is as imperialistic as Putin.

The Russian public supported the annexation of Crimea, and share in the hatred of an independent Ukraine and the whole free world.

It is time to finally open your eyes and stop looking for "good Russians."

Instead, it must be made clear that the Russian Federation is a multinational state. Much of its territory is not inhabited only by Russians, but by the native peoples who lived on this land for centuries.

Read also: Euthanasia for Russia

In fact, these are whole countries, with populations of hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions who are enslaved by the Russian Empire.

In the current Russian Federation, these enslaved nations have the formal status of autonomous republics. But in practice, Moscow pursues a policy of rigid assimilation and suppression of these people’s language, culture and religion. Their political and social movements are persecuted, key figures are imprisoned, killed or forced abroad.

It is these peoples of the Russian Federation that everyone should pay attention to who wants to see "another Russia."

Russia’s recovery is possible only through repentance and its transformation into an ordinary nation-state. The people of the empire must be set free.

The struggle of the peoples of Ukraine, the Baltic states, the Caucasus, Central Asia and all the others buried the empire of evil — the USSR. The newest evil empire — the Russian Federation — must be buried in the struggle for the national liberation of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Ischkeria, Tuva, Sakha-Yakutia, Buryatia and other countries.

This process should not be feared just as the short-sightedly Western powers feared the collapse of the USSR. On the contrary, it should be encouraged.

Read also: Soviet identity is gone forever, but Putin doesn’t get it

By giving freedom to all enslaved peoples through national movements from within and strong pressure from without, Russia will finally be able to become free itself.

Only in this way, and not simply by replacing one tsar with another, can another Russia emerge.

Friday, May 6, 2022

Putin has become a problem. The main indicator of Russia's defeat

 A process that began on April 24 during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's historic meeting with the head of the U.S. State Department Antony Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Kyiv continued throughout the last week.

It included a meeting in the U.S. Ramstein airbase of the defense ministers of the 40 most industrial powers in the world. They, in fact, entered into a military alliance in support of Ukraine. The West has finally clearly formulated its goals.

Read also: Soviet identity is gone forever, but Putin doesn’t get it

When asked what the purpose of the war was, Austin replied: “The purpose of the war for the United States is the victory of Ukraine. Restoration of its territorial integrity, and that Russia, as a result of the war, is weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”

That is, the West has already formulated a program not only for the victory of Ukraine in the war but also for the post-war structure. This is a common practice after world wars, but in essence, this is not a Russo-Ukrainian war, this is a world war that the insane dictator Putin declared against the entire West and the free world. After the world war, the victorious powers form a new world order. And now Ukraine will be the main victorious power in this process.

During these two months of the war, the Americans spent a long time hesitating, they were cautious. But, in the end, with its heroic resistance, Ukraine, as it were, pushed them back into the arena of world politics, which they were almost about to leave. After such a reputational disaster as Afghanistan, the dictators of the world were sure that two more blows needed to be struck — to conquer Ukraine and Taiwan. Then the West and the United States would be completely discredited, and entirely different orders would reign in the world.

However, the heroic resistance of Ukraine has prevented this scenario. The free world has gone on the attack, and the West has overcome its fear of nuclear blackmail, which Putin has used quite effectively for himself for 15 years. He constantly threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in the war with NATO, hoping that NATO would get scared and retreat in horror. He was dealt an answer.

Read also: Amnesty International says Russian invaders must face justice for war crimes in Kyiv Oblast

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley called General Valery Gerasimov and made it clear to him, to tell his boss that they will not retreat, they will not capitulate, but on the contrary, they will retaliate with a nuclear strike. So don't even think about resorting to nuclear weapons. U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland was even more straightforward. The West got rid of this fear of nuclear blackmail, and clearly defined its program — victory over Putin's fascist Russia.

If we consider the significant events of recent days, then the indicator of the largest political defeat of Russia was the position of Israel. Which, in response to Sergei Lavrov's anti-Semitic attacks is taking a tougher stand in the face of Russia.

It is removing restrictions on the transfer of military technology and assistance to Ukraine. Many did not notice, but Israel participated in the meeting in Ramstein. This is very important. Israel has technology that the Americans cannot provide.

In turn, China, although it continues a cold war with the United States, is not going to rush to the aid of the Russian Federation. It primarily protects its own interests. What is happening suits Beijing — weakening, isolated from the West, from all modern technologies, financial resources, Russia is rapidly becoming easy prey.

No one in China, not one of the 1.5 billion Chinese who are taught from school textbooks, forgets what vast territories of Siberia and the Far East are inherent Chinese territories, torn away from it by the tsarist government in the 19th century. And it is waiting for the return of these territories — as they like to say in Moscow — to their native, not Russian, but Chinese harbor.

Watching all this, powerful people in the Kremlin are becoming a danger for Putin. Influential people outside the Kremlin do not pose a danger for him. The soldiers included. Let's not delude ourselves: they are not liberals, but the same Russian imperialists, they would not mind snatching off some piece of Ukraine. But even before the start of the war, retired generals warned Putin that the occupation of Ukraine was a fool’s errand. And everything that is happening confirms it.

Now Putin has become the main problem of the Russian authorities and the mafia group that is in power. He is destroying the country, which is a source of food for them, where they had it made.

I think they are now considering very seriously the question of the possible removal of Putin from power. And each new success of Ukraine at the front (and these successes will sharply increase in two weeks, when the most modern weapons in the world will arrive in full), pushes them to this decision. It's inevitable.

Some say they are even worse than Putin. But it is not a question of who is good or bad. The question is who will sign the surrender. There is such a thing as military logic, and the victory of Ukraine is unavoidable. Putin only hinders them in this process.

And do not forget about the goals of the war, which are declared by the entire world community — to weaken Russia so that it will never be able to repeat this aggression again. Therefore, after the war, both Ukraine and the rest of the world will not rely on good or bad Russian leaders. They will create conditions so that no leaders, good or bad, can ever commit aggression against neighboring countries from the territory of the Russian Federation.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

一句人类史上最荒谬的口号 最终导致只能是自相残杀

From editor: 这篇文章提醒大家如何避免堕落成为一个法西斯社会。没错,民主社会也会堕落成法西斯社会,希特勒就是前车之鉴。


 “大多数人的最大利益”,是用来欺骗人类的最荒谬的口号之一。


这句口号没有具体明确的意义。我们根本无法从善意的角度来对它加以解释,它只能用来为那些最邪恶的行为狡辩。

这句口号里的“利益”应该如何定义?无法定义,只能说是有利于最多数人的东西。那么,在具体的情况下,谁来决定什么是大多数人的利益呢?还用问吗?当然是大多数人。

如果你认为这是道德的,那么你一定也会赞同下面的这些例子,它们正是上面那句口号在现实中的具体运用:

百分之五十一的人奴役了另外百分之四十九的人;十个人中,有九个饥饿的人以另外一个伙伴的肉为食;一群残忍的匪徒杀害了一个他们认为对他们造成威胁的人。

德国有七千万德国人和六十万犹太人。大多数人(德国人)都支持他们的纳粹政府,政府告诉他们,只有消灭少数人(犹太人)并且掠夺他们的财产,大多数人的最大利益才可能得到保障。

这就是那句荒唐的口号在现实生活中制造的恐怖结果。


但是,你可能会说,在上述的例子中,大多数人并没有得到什么真正的利益。对,他们没有得到任何利益,因为“利益”不是靠数字决定的,也不能通过什么人为了别人所作的牺牲获得。

头脑简单的人相信,上面的那句口号包含着某种高尚的意义,它告诉人们,为了大多数人的利益他们应该牺牲自己。

如果是这样,大多数的人会不会也高尚一次,愿意为那些邪恶的少数人作点牺牲?不会?那么,为什么那些少数人就一定要为那些邪恶的多数人牺牲自己呢?

头脑简单的人以为,每个高喊上面那句口号的人都会无私地和那些为了大多数人而牺牲自己的少数人站在一起。这怎么可能?那句口号里丝毫没有这种意思。

更可能发生的是,他会努力挤进多数人的队伍,开始牺牲他人。那句口号传递给他的真实信息是,他别无选择,抢劫别人或被别人抢劫,击毁别人或被别人击毁。

这句口号的可鄙之处在于,多数人的“利益”一定要以少数人的痛苦为代价,一个人的所得必须依靠另一个人所失。



如果我们赞成集体主义的教义,认为人的存在只是为了他人,那么他享受的每一点快乐(或每一口食物)都是罪恶而不道德的,因为完全可能有另外一个人也想得到他的快乐和食物。

根据这样的理论,人们不能吃饭,不能呼吸,不能相爱(所有这一切都是自私的,如果有其他人想要你的妻子怎么办?),人们不可能融洽地生活在一起,最终结果只能是自相残杀。

只有尊重个人的权利,我们才能定义并且得到真正的利益——私人的或是公众的利益。

只有当每个人都能为了自己而自由地生活时——不必为了自己而牺牲他人,也不必为了他人而牺牲自己——人们才可能通过自己的努力,根据自己的选择,实现最大的利益。

只有把这种个人努力汇合在一起,人们才能实现广泛的社会利益。



不要认为与“大多数人的最大利益”这种提法相反的是“极少数人的最大利益”,我们应该提倡的是:每个人通过自己自由的努力所能得到的最大利益。

如果你是一个自由主义者,希望保留美国的生活方式,那么你能够作出的最大贡献就是,永远从你的思想、言语和情感中清除“大多数人的最大利益”这样的空洞口号。

这完全是骗人的鬼话,是纯粹集体主义思想的教条。如果你认为自己是自由主义者,你就不能接受它。你必须作出选择,非此即彼,不可兼顾。 

文:安·兰德   编:木叶

安·兰德被誉为“美国精神的代言人”安·兰德曾说:“我以我的生命以及我对它的热爱发誓,我永远不会为别人而活,也不会要求别人为我而活。”人要努力为自己而活,虽然世界荒谬,人生艰难,但是“不能把世界让给你所鄙视的人”。

安·兰德力倡个人主义,旗帜鲜明的提出“自私是人类进步的源泉”。她认为,不能使个人利益得到最大伸张的社会,就不是理想社会。

Sunday, March 27, 2022

Russia’s Recent Invasion of Ukraine: the Just War Perspective

 By Hans Gutbrod - 21 March 2022

Hans Gutbrod argues that all interpretations of Russia's invasion of Ukraine point to a radical change of paradigm for international relations. 

Public and international revulsion at the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine is widespread. The Kremlin has received comprehensive international condemnation for its actions, with only few allies siding with the Russian government. Another way of examining Russia's invasion is through just war theory, a tested framework for assessing the ethical aspects of the use of force.

Against this standard, Russia's recent invasion does not look good even in the most generous interpretation. The first ethical test is Ius ad Bellum, whether the use of force is justified in the first place. The Kremlin's actions fail that test.

Failing – Ius ad Bellum

The invasion has a cause that is intelligible, but it is not just. It is understandable that the Kremlin would prefer Ukraine not to turn towards NATO and the EU. It is also legitimate for the Kremlin to advocate and push for Ukrainian neutrality and to declare its sphere of interest. Yet legitimate interests do not, by themselves, make a just cause for using force. A just cause presupposes the righting of a grievous wrong so that a more lasting peace can be achieved.

The stated aims of Russia's ‘special operation’ do not amount to a right intention. None of the three goals that Vladimir Putin highlighted in his original speech are a plausible intention. The ‘demilitarization’ of a state that does not pose a threat is an attempt at subjugation, not a step towards a better peace. It is implausible, at best, that a state that is governed by a president of Jewish descent requires ‘denazification’. The third goal of putting ‘to justice those that committed numerous bloody crimes against peaceful people, including Russian nationals’ remains farfetched. Whatever one makes of the events that Vladimir Putin mentioned in other contexts, including the incident in which dozens of pro-Russian protesters died when a building was set ablaze in Odessa in 2014, there are numerous international legal instruments for pursuing redress.

The supplementary claim that military action was intended to prevent ‘genocide’ seems to have come up in Russian state media only from mid-February, after close to 200,000 Russian troops had already been massed by Ukraine's borders, as Paul Goode has shown with a detailed analysis of the rhetoric in Russia's popular TV channels.

Moreover, the recent invasion fails the test of being proportional to any potential grievance. Even if there were merits to some of Russia's claims, they are not proportional to unleashing an invasion that would cost the lives of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians.

Nor is it plausible that an invasion is a last resort. Ukraine did not pose a substantial threat to Russia with its vastly larger population, economy, armed forces, and nuclear weapons, too. As German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made clear to Vladimir Putin on his February visit to Moscow, Ukraine's NATO actual membership was not a realistic prospect in the coming years. Moreover, Russia had many options to potentially negotiate with Ukraine about the country's foreign policy course – especially so after Russian forces had previously seized Crimea, against its own commitments to preserve Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Lastly, the Kremlin’s attack has legitimate authority only in the narrow sense of being a sovereign government. Given the Kremlin’s vicious repression of dissent, including the threat of jail sentences of 15 years for criticizing the war, its systematic sidelining of opposition, the murder or attempted murder of its critics, the closure of opposition media outlets, the actions are hardly ‘legitimized’ in a more inclusive sense of that term.

No plausible ethical case, therefore, can be made to justify Russia's recent invasion, even if one grants, as former Foreign Secretary David Owen and others have done, that countries will have their strategic interests. Rather, the invasion is detached from any ethical framework. In that regard, it is an aggression reminiscent of how the Melian islanders describe the arrival of the Athenians in Thucydides's Peloponnesian War: ‘we see that you have come to be judges in your own cause.’

Bleak -- Ius in Bello

Conflicts with murky justifications can still be fought with restraint. Yet here, too, Russia's actions seem to lack proportionality, with a sweeping attack throughout much the country. Residential areas have been bombed. It is unclear how the Kharkiv city council building hit by a cruise missile or the TV tower in Kyiv are military targets. (By the same standard, some Western targeting in conflicts from Iraq to Kosovo can also be held up to scrutiny.)

There are plausible reports that civilians are mass targeted especially in Mariupol, with thousands feared dead. In that way, Russian forces are targeting rather than protecting noncombatants. While it may still be too early to assess whether there has been mass-targeting of civilians throughout the country, the Guardian’s reports on summary executions of civilians are made all the more plausible by drone footage of a civilian driver shot outside Kyiv on March 7 while his arms were raised. There are ongoing investigations regarding potential Russian war crimes. That such transgressions could still get a lot worse is neither consolation nor absolution.

Many aspects of the conflict will only come to light later. It is possible that transgressions from the Ukrainian side will emerge over time. Threats that Russian artillery personnel would not be taken prisoner in revenge for the targeting of civilians have rightly been condemned as detracting from Ukraine's claim to fight the superior cause. That said, there is intrinsic asymmetry as in defending against invasion Ukraine anyway is not putting Russian civilians in harm’s way. Conversely, there are powerful instances of peaceful protests by Ukrainian civilians against Russia’s armed occupation.

From an ethical angle, this leaves the question of NATO’s promise of membership to Ukraine. Some nuance can provide a plausible answer. Extending a prospect of membership is legitimate for a defensive alliance and hoping for it a legitimate aim for a sovereign country. The context made the offer understandable, too. In 2008 both Russia and the West were preoccupied by a similar threat. A gruesome attack in Beslan in the North Caucasus happened in 2004, and a major raid by Islamic militants in Nalchik took place a year later. Between bomb attacks in Madrid (2004) and London (2005) one of the inevitable tasks for NATO seemed to be the fight against terrorism. Baltic and several Eastern European states, including Georgia, were steadfast allies in Afghanistan.

Was the offer of membership to Ukraine (and Georgia) as wise as it was legitimate and understandable? Views on this differ. While the former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev says that ‘this argument about NATO is just propaganda’, there are representatives of the security establishment in the West, such as former Chief of MI6 John Sawers, who think that the 2008 promises ‘were unwise […] and raised expectations.’ The practical compromise, as in the case of Georgia, was to try and prevent NATO’s Article 5 from ever needing to be invoked: preventing the calamity voids the need for insurance.

Whatever one thinks of the merits of this eventual arrangement, as many observers have pointed out, NATO troops only were deployed in more forward positions in Eastern Europe after Russia’s seizure of Crimea. In that way, the Kremlin squarely bears the responsibility for increasing NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe. Moreover, even if one disagrees with Western policy in Eastern Europe, the just war tradition shows that the use of force cannot be justified in response.

Optimistic versus Pessimistic Conclusions

Different readings of this stark conclusion are possible. In an optimistic interpretation, many Russians, including in military and security structures, could conclude that whatever legitimate interests Russia has, they came nowhere close to warranting military aggression. Certainly, thousands of Russians are protesting at great risk to themselves. To those hoping to spot more dissent in Russia, there are indications that it exists and is folded into circumlocutions. The brand of authoritarian populism in the West, too, may be weakened by its associations with Vladimir Putin.

In a more pessimistic reading, the West is unlikely to return to common ground with Russia over the next decade. The ethical underpinning for such commonality has been rent. The plain dishonesty of Russian diplomacy factors in this, too. For years, it may not be possible to engage with Russia's current and future leadership to solve some of the world's pressing problems.

Such a de-facto schism would have major policy implications, including on climate change. Geoengineering may require renewed consideration. Previously, such attempts to slow or reverse climate impacts through large-scale intervention, were largely seen as the realm of technological enthusiasts. Without multilateralism, there may not be much of an alternative.

Whichever interpretation one finds plausible, the recent invasion of Ukraine marks a radical change of paradigm. The ethical assessment highlights that it is unlikely that there will be a return to normal soon.

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...