Wednesday, April 24, 2024

一个普通人的世界观

 编者:爱因斯坦的“我的世界观”,到今年刚好90年。作为对比,颇有趣。

生命的意义:人生有意义吗?或者再进一步,所有有机生物的生命?我认为生命本身是没什么意义的。漫长的进化,从单细胞到多细胞,从植物到动物,生命在利用能源的过程中,为了更好的适应环境,而对自己不断改造,最终成就了人类。和非洲大草原上奔腾的角马一样,人类的生命于这个世界,是没有什么意义的。人们从出生到死亡,在这世上匆匆忙忙的走上一遭,感知到属于自己的喜乐,该离开的时候,不管是不是情愿,也都一定要“不带走一片云彩“的随风而去。如果一定说有什么意义的话,就是给亲人带来爱,给后代留下一个更好的世界。

我的世界观:寿命有限这个事实,对人类而言是不幸,也是幸运。不幸容易理解,生离死别,是人生最大的痛苦。而幸运则是指人类不会面对着永久的虚空而无聊。所有的逝去,和所有的将来,让人类对这个世界始终保持着好奇。让人们在“逝者如斯“的紧迫下,不断去探索,去经历,去发现,去惊讶,去生活。只有体会到了告别的不舍,才会明白拥有的可贵。我们为自己,为自己所爱的人,努力的生活。这世上的每一分钟都是宝贵的。

从哲学角度来讲,我认为人类是自由的。叔本华说,“人的行为由意念支配,而意念却不受人支配“。但是,人类的意念不是凭空而来,而是人为了应对环境的挑战而做出的回应。饿了我们要吃东西,冷了我们要穿衣服。人类的意念,或者欲望,让人类能够生存下来,从根本上来说是为人服务的。更重要的一点,人类的意念并不是被强加的。人生于天地之间,随念而动,随感而发。从这个角度来讲,人是自由的。我因为这一点,尊重人类,和世间所有自由的物种。

对于社会,我认为每个人都有责任。这和人类的自由是密切相关的。因为每个人都想过自由的生活,所以除非这世间只剩下一个人,那么自由就有边界。人类社会因为人类的协作而存在,所以在人类社会里生活的人们,就必须学会如何与他人相处,由此也就产生了社会的规则。简单的说,规则就是个人自由的边界。任何人的自由,都不能建立在践踏他人的自由之上。

对于社会的政治制度,我赞成民主。引用丘吉尔的那句名言,“民主是最不坏的制度“。大家提出自己的主张,谁能说服选民,就能得到更多的选票。且不说这个制度带来的大众讨论和参与,单单是摆脱了历史上的起义,政变和革命,就已经是巨大的进步。当然它有自己的缺点,但是说它是现在所有选择中,”最不坏“的制度,这一点就比独裁制度要好。

我反对战争,我也不喜欢群体生活。但是我尊重军人的付出。因为只有和平,才能带来幸福的生活。而不幸的是,人类这个物种有很强的欲望,每个人都想要更多的财富,更多的权力,更多的名望,而这个世界的资源有限,所以过多的欲望不可避免的会带来冲突,也就不可避免的会带来战争。既然人类目前的智慧还无法消灭战争,那么保护自己所爱的人不受战争的摧残,就是军人的职责。虽然我反对战争,但是如果有人要剥夺我的自由,奴役我的家人,我会毫不犹豫的拿起武器。

再说说科学吧。科学有尽头吗?我认为没有。打个比方,人类掌握的知识总量如果是一个圆圈,那么人类掌握的知识越多,圆圈就越大,随着圆圈的增长,圆圈的边界也就越大,而未知也就越多,因为圆圈外面就是未知。毋庸置疑,人类会不断的进步。但是置于无穷的时间和空间之中,人类永远都是渺小的。

相比于宇宙之浩瀚,人类就如同沧海一粟。我们能够存在于这个星球已是奇迹,而你我又能仰望苍穹,思考人生之意义,何其幸也!我们来于偶然,去于必然。这若梦的浮生,每个人都会按照自己的自由意志,走完属于自己的人生道路。每个人都是自己生活的拥有者和评判者。对于我个人来说,过好自己的生活,并尽力让我周围的人感到温暖,这就是我生命的意义。

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

我的世界观

 编者:这篇文章首次发表于1934年,那一年爱因斯坦55岁。每个人对这个世界都有自己独特的看法,但不是每个人都有机会把自己的世界观公开发表出来。其实这样一篇文章不需要很长的篇幅,也不一定是成名成家的人物,才有资格谈论自己的世界观。在互联网普及的今天,也许会看到更多人的世界观。很久之前读过中译本,总觉有些拗口,自己重新翻译,和原文记于此。

生命的意义:人生有意义吗?或者再进一步,所有有机生物的生命?要回答这个问题,就会涉及宗教。那么也许你会问,干嘛要问这个问题?我的回答是,如果一个人认为自己和其他人类的生命没有任何意义,那么对于他自己就不仅仅是不幸那么简单了,而是根本不合适成为一个生命。

我的世界观:作为一个寿命有限的物种,我们的处境多奇特啊!我们每一个人都在这世上匆匆忙忙地走一遭。为了什么?没人知道。虽然有的时候,会感觉到一种使命感。如果只从日常生活,不做深究的话,我们是为了周围的人而活。首先是为了熟人的笑脸和健康,这是我们快乐的源泉。然后呢,是为了社会上其他我们并不熟识的人,我们之间的命运通过相互同情而维系。每天我都无数次的提醒自己,我的生活里里外外都依赖于其他人的工作,甚至包括那些已经故去的人。所以我必须尽我所能回馈我所享受的,从过去到现在。我崇尚简单生活,为自己占据了太多其他人的劳动而惴惴不安。我认为阶级的划分并不公平,说到底是基于权力。我还认为简单的生活有益于每一个人的身心。

从哲学角度来讲,我不相信人类是自由的。每个人的行为,既来自于外界的驱使,也来自于内心的需求。叔本华的那句,“人的行为由意念支配,而意念却不受人支配”,一直让我深受启发,并在我面对艰难世事的时候,给我不尽的安慰,也是我耐心的源泉。幸好有了这种感觉,才消减了那种很容易让人感到无力的责任感,也让人们不至于太把自己和别人当回事儿。毕竟生活中需要一些幽默。

从主观的角度,质询人生的意义或者目的,对于我来说有些荒诞。毕竟每个人对自己的努力和判断,都有自己的理想。从这个意义讲,我从来不认为从容和喜乐是最终目的,这种目的对一群猪更合适。在我的人生旅途之中,不时鞭策着我,给我乐观面对生活的勇气的,是“真,善,美”。如果没有志同道合的人的陪伴,没有对目标的坚守,没有在艺术和科学领域无尽的求索,人生于我没有任何意义。通常他人努力追求的东西,比如财产,成功和奢侈,我视之如粪土。

我对社会公正和社会责任富有激情,这和我明显与他人和社群保持距离的态度,是一个奇怪的反差。我特立独行,打心眼儿里就从来不觉得我属于自己的祖国,自己的家,自己的朋友,或者自己的亲人。我从来都漠视这些羁绊,独处的需求与日俱增。或许有人清楚的知道,与他人达成共识和共情的可能性是有限的。这没什么可遗憾的。这样的人无疑会缺少一些亲和力,心态也不会轻松,但是另一方面,他大多不会太在意别人的意见,习惯和看法,会避免这些不稳定的因素影响自己的立场。

我的政治理想是民主。每个人都有尊严,而不崇拜任何人。虽然有些讽刺的是,我本人就接受了过度的称赞和钦佩。此事非本人之功,亦非本人之过。大概是源于本人尽自己虽绵薄但不懈之努力所提出的一两个理论,理解这些理论超出了很多人的能力范围,但是大家都渴望了解更多。一个复杂组织的顺利运作,往往需要组织的首脑来做规划和指导,当然也承担责任。但是领导力是不可强加于人的,大家必须能够选择自己的领导人。一个基于高压政治的独裁系统,在我看来,必不长久。因为暴力旗帜下所聚集的必是无德之人,天才的暴君也会被无赖所继承,我相信这是铁律。基于这个原因,我强烈反对我们今天在意大利和俄罗斯所看到的制度。今天欧洲的主流民主制度所遭到的诟病,并不是源于民主本身,而是源于政府首脑缺乏稳定性和缺少个人色彩的选举制度。我认为关于民主制度,美国的做法是正确的。他们的总统是能够负责的职位,总统有足够长的任期和足够的权力,去做到真正的负责。不过从另一个方面来讲,我们的政治制度的价值在于它能够给予病患或者需要的人更广泛的帮助。依我看来,人生这场盛宴,真正宝贵的不是什么国家,而是每一个富有创造力,有感知的个人,个性鲜明的个人。只有个人,才能创造出高贵和高尚。而群体,于思想于情感,都是愚钝的。

由此让我想到了群体性最糟糕的体现,就是我所憎恶的军队体系。如果一个人能够在军乐队的伴奏中,在队列式的行进中找到快乐,那就足以让我鄙视了。他拥有大脑都是一个错误,给他一个脊椎就够了。这个文明的灾祸应该被尽快铲除。命令下产生的英雄主义,无意义的暴行,以及所有的令人厌恶的荒唐,这些都以爱国之名 --- 我痛恨所有这些!对于我来说,战争是一个恶毒而可鄙的东西,我宁愿粉身碎骨也绝不参与这种可憎之事。尽管如此,我对人类的敬意让我相信,如果不是因为国家的心智被商业和政治利益通过学校和传媒被系统的腐化了,战争早就应该被扫进历史的垃圾堆了。

我们所能经历的最奇妙的莫过于神秘了吧?它是在真正的艺术和科学摇篮边,最朴素的情感。如果一个人不知道神秘,不能感到好奇,不再会感叹,那么他和死了也没什么两样,一只熄灭的蜡烛罢了。正是这种神秘的感觉,哪怕或许参杂着恐惧,孕育出了宗教。要知道某些存在是我们无法了解的,是最深奥的原因的表象,是最绚烂的美丽,这些都只能以最基本的形式被我们的理智所触及。这种认知和这种情绪,构成了真正的宗教态度。从这个角度,也只从这个角度,我是一个虔诚的教徒。我无法设想一个能够奖赏或者惩罚他所创之生命的造物主,也无法设想一个与我们自己的认知有相似欲望的神。我无法理解一个人身体死亡之后还能存在,我也不希望如此。那些软弱的灵魂,出于恐惧和无聊的自我意识,才会有这些想法。对于我来说,永恒生命的神秘,现实结构的神奇,专心探索去了解哪怕是微不足道的一部分,这些对我已经足够了。

The Meaning of Life 

What is the meaning of human life, or of organic life altogether? To answer this question at all implies a religion. Is there any sense then, you ask, in putting it? I answer, the man who regards his own life and that of his fellow-creatures as meaningless is not merely unfortunate but almost disqualified for life. 

The World as I see it 

What an extraordinary situation is that of us mortals! Each of us is here for a brief sojourn; for what purpose he knows not, though he sometimes thinks he feels it. But from the point of view of daily life, without going deeper, we exist for our fellow-men--in the first place for those on whose smiles and welfare all our happiness depends, and next for all those unknown to us personally with whose destinies we are bound up by the tie of sympathy. A hundred times every day I remind myself that my inner and outer life depend on the labours of other men, living and dead, and that I must exert myself in order to give in the same measure as I have received and am still receiving. I am strongly drawn to the simple life and am often oppressed by the feeling that I am engrossing an unnecessary amount of the labour of my fellow-men. I regard class differences as contrary to justice and, in the last resort, based on force. I also consider that plain living is good for everybody, physically and mentally. 

In human freedom in the philosophical sense I am definitely a disbeliever. Everybody acts not only under external compulsion but also in accordance with inner necessity. Schopenhauer's saying, that "a man can do as he will, but not will as he will," has been an inspiration to me since my youth up, and a continual consolation and unfailing well-spring of patience in the face of the hardships of life, my own and others'. This feeling mercifully mitigates the sense of responsibility which so easily becomes paralysing, and it prevents us from taking ourselves and other people too seriously; it conduces to a view of life in which humour, above all, has its due place.

To inquire after the meaning or object of one's own existence or of creation generally has always seemed to me absurd from an objective point of view. And yet everybody has certain ideals which determine the direction of his endeavours and his judgments. In this sense I have never looked upon ease and happiness as ends in themselves--such an ethical basis I call more proper for a herd of swine. The ideals which have lighted me on my way and time after time given me new courage to face life cheerfully, have been Truth, Goodness, and Beauty. Without the sense of fellowship with men of like mind, of preoccupation with the objective, the eternally unattainable in the field of art and scientific research, life would have seemed to me empty. The ordinary objects of human endeavour--property, outward success, luxury--have always seemed to me contemptible. 

My passionate sense of social justice and social responsibility has always contrasted oddly with my pronounced freedom from the need for direct contact with other human beings and human communities. I gang my own gait and have never belonged to my country, my home, my friends, or even my immediate family, with my whole heart; in the face of all these ties I have never lost an obstinate sense of detachment, of the need for solitude--a feeling which increases with the years. One is sharply conscious, yet without regret, of the limits to the possibility of mutual understanding and sympathy with one's fellow-creatures. Such a person no doubt loses something in the way of geniality and light-heartedness ; on the other hand, he is largely independent of the opinions, habits, and judgments of his fellows and avoids the temptation to take his stand on such insecure foundations. 

My political ideal is that of democracy. Let every man be respected as an individual and no man idolized. It is an irony of fate that I myself have been the recipient of excessive admiration and respect from my fellows through no fault, and no merit, of my own. The cause of this may well be the desire, unattainable for many, to understand the one or two ideas to which I have with my feeble powers attained through ceaseless struggle. I am quite aware that it is necessary for the success of any complex undertaking that one man should do the thinking and directing and in general bear the responsibility. But the led must not be compelled, they must be able to choose their leader. An autocratic system of coercion, in my opinion, soon degenerates. For force always attracts men of low morality, and I believe it to be an invariable rule that tyrants of genius are succeeded by scoundrels. For this reason I have always been passionately opposed to systems such as we see in Italy and Russia to-day. The thing that has brought discredit upon the prevailing form of democracy in Europe to-day is not to be laid to the door of the democratic idea as such, but to lack of stability on the part of the heads of governments and to the impersonal character of the electoral system. I believe that in this respect the United States of America have found the right way. They have a responsible President who is elected for a sufficiently long period and has sufficient powers to be really responsible. On the other hand, what I value in our political system is the more extensive provision that it makes for the individual in case of illness or need. The really valuable thing in the pageant of human life seems to me not the State but the creative, sentient individual, the personality; it alone creates the noble and the sublime, while the herd as such remains dull in thought and dull in feeling. 

This topic brings me to that worst outcrop of the herd nature, the military system, which I abhor. That a man can take pleasure in marching in formation to the strains of a band is enough to make me despise him. He has only been given his big brain by mistake; a backbone was all he needed. This plague-spot of civilization ought to be abolished with all possible speed. Heroism by order, senseless violence, and all the pestilent nonsense that does by the name of patriotism--how I hate them! War seems to me a mean, contemptible thing: I would rather be hacked in pieces than take part in such an abominable business. And yet so high, in spite of everything, is my opinion of the human race that I believe this bogey would have disappeared long ago, had the sound sense of the nations not been systematically corrupted by commercial and political interests acting through the schools and the Press. 

The fairest thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the fundamental emotion which stands at the cradle of true art and true science. He who knows it not and can no longer wonder, no longer feel amazement, is as good as dead, a snuffed-out candle. It was the experience of mystery--even if mixed with fear--that engendered religion. A knowledge of the existence of something we cannot penetrate, of the manifestations of the profoundest reason and the most radiant beauty, which are only accessible to our reason in their most elementary forms--it is this knowledge and this emotion that constitute the truly religious attitude; in this sense, and in this alone, I am a deeply religious man. I cannot conceive of a God who rewards and punishes his creatures, or has a will of the type of which we are conscious in ourselves. An individual who should survive his physical death is also beyond my comprehension, nor do I wish it otherwise; such notions are for the fears or absurd egoism of feeble souls. Enough for me the mystery of the eternity of life, and the inkling of the marvellous structure of reality, together with the single-hearted endeavour to comprehend a portion, be it never so tiny, of the reason that manifests itself in nature

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Xi Jinping’s misguided plan to escape economic stagnation

编者:这篇文章首次清楚的解释了什么是“新质生产力”, 即优先发展先进制造业,包括电动汽车,电池,生物制造和以无人机为依托的“低海拔经济”。

It is china’s gravest economic test since the most far-reaching of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms began in the 1990s. Last year the country achieved growth of 5%, but the pillars of its decades-long miracle are wobbling. Its famously industrious workforce is shrinking, history’s wildest property boom has turned to bust and the global system of free trade that China used to get richer is disintegrating. As our reporting explains, President Xi Jinping’s response is to double down on an audacious plan to remake China’s economy. Blending techno-utopianism, central planning and an obsession with security, this sets out China’s ambition to dominate the industries of tomorrow. But its contradictions mean it will disappoint China’s people and anger the rest of the world.

Compared with 12 months ago, let alone the go-go years, the mood in China is dour. Although industrial production perked up in March, consumers are depressed, deflation lurks and many entrepreneurs are disillusioned. Behind the angst lie deeper fears about China’s vulnerabilities. It is forecast to lose 20% of its workforce by 2050. A crisis in the property industry, which drives a fifth of gdp, will take years to fix. It will hurt cash-strapped local governments that relied on land sales for revenues and flourishing real estate for growth. Relations with America are steadier, as a phone call between Mr Xi and President Joe Biden this week attested. But they remain fragile. Chinese officials are convinced that America will restrict more Chinese imports and penalise more Chinese firms, whoever wins the White House in November.

China’s response is a strategy built around what officials call “new productive forces”. This eschews the conventional path of a big consumer stimulus to reflate the economy (that’s the kind of ruse the decadent West resorts to). Instead Mr Xi wants state power to accelerate advanced manufacturing industries, which will in turn create high-productivity jobs, make China self-sufficient and secure it against American aggression. China will leapfrog steel and skyscrapers to a golden era of mass production of electric cars, batteries, biomanufacturing and the drone-based “low-altitude economy”.

The scope of this plan is breathtaking. We estimate annual investment in “new productive forces” has reached $1.6trn—a fifth of all investment and double what it was five years ago in nominal terms. This is equivalent to 43% of all business investment in America in 2023. Factory capacity in some industries could rise by over 75% by 2030. Some of this will be made by world-class firms keen to create value, but much will be prompted by subsidies and implicit or explicit state direction. Foreign companies are welcome, even though many have been burned in China before. Mr Xi’s ultimate aim is to invert the balance of power in the global economy. Not only will China escape dependence on Western technology, but it will control much of the key intellectual property in new industries and charge rents accordingly. Multinationals will come to China to learn, not teach.

However, Mr Xi’s plan is fundamentally misguided. One flaw is that it neglects consumers. Although their spending dwarfs property and the new productive forces, it accounts for just 37% of gdp, much lower than global norms. To restore confidence amid the property slump and thereby boost consumer spending requires stimulus. To induce consumers to save less requires better social security and health care, and reforms that open up public services to all urban migrants. Mr Xi’s reluctance to embrace this reflects his austere mindset. He detests the idea of bailing out speculative property firms or giving handouts to citizens. Young people should be less pampered and willing to “eat bitterness”, he said last year.

Another flaw is that weak domestic demand means some new production will have to be exported. The world has, regrettably, moved on from the free-trading 2000s—partly because of China’s own mercantilism. America will surely block advanced imports from China, or those made by Chinese firms elsewhere. Europe is in a panic about fleets of Chinese vehicles wiping out its carmakers. Chinese officials say they can redirect exports to the global south. But if emerging countries’ industrial development is undermined by a new “China shock”, they, too, will grow wary. China accounts for 31% of global manufacturing. In a protectionist age, how much higher can that figure go?

The last flaw is Mr Xi’s unrealistic view of entrepreneurs, the dynamos of the past 30 years. Investment in politically favoured industries is soaring, but the underlying mechanism of capitalist risk-taking has been damaged. Many bosses complain of Mr Xi’s unpredictable rule-making and fear purges or even arrest. Relative stockmarket valuations are at a 25-year low; foreign firms are wary; there are signs of capital flight and tycoons emigrating. Unless entrepreneurs are unshackled, innovation will suffer and resources will be wasted.

China could become like Japan in the 1990s, trapped by deflation and a property crash. Worse, its lopsided growth model could wreck international trade. If so, that could ratchet geopolitical tensions even higher. America and its allies should not cheer that scenario. If China was stagnating and discontented, it could be even more bellicose than if it were thriving.

Old reductive forces

If these flaws are obvious, why doesn’t China change course? One reason is that Mr Xi is not listening. For much of the past 30 years, China has been open to outside views on economic reform. Its technocrats studied global best practice and welcomed vigorous technical debates. Under Mr Xi’s centralising rule, economic experts have been marginalised and the feedback leaders used to receive has turned into flattery. The other reason Mr Xi charges on is that national security now takes precedence over prosperity. China must be prepared for the struggle ahead with America, even if there is a price to pay. It is a profound change from the 1990s and its ill-effects will be felt in China and around the world.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

My 15-Year-Old Daughter Died. I Recently Found A Box Of Hers — And What Was Inside Left Me Shaken.

 From editor: isn't every child a treasure?

Ana at age 5, on her first day of kindergarten.
Ana at age 5, on her first day of kindergarten. Courtesy of Jacqueline Dooley

When my daughter Ana was 11, she was diagnosed with a rare cancer called inflammatory myofibroblastic tumor (IMT). Five years later, on March 22, 2017, Ana died from her disease.

In those first months after Ana died, grief manifested as an ache in my chest and an inability to do much more than sit in my yard and watch the birds at my feeders. I stopped working for about six months, outsourcing my freelance marketing projects to subcontractors while I moved through life in a daze.

As each year passes, my grief shifts and changes. It never fades. It’s just... different. For me, surviving grief requires adaptation. It’s taken me a long time, but I’m finally OK with not hanging on to every single memory, ritual and symbol that reminds me of Ana.

As I approach the seventh anniversary of losing Ana, I don’t need or want to keep retelling the story of her death. I want to remember her life and the unique things that made Ana, well... Ana. There’s one memory, in particular, that is still sharp and clear in my mind — Ana’s imaginary world. She called it Arkomo.

Ana loved tiny things. She collected them like treasure : Minuscule stuffed animals. Shells that fit into the palm of her hand. The world’s smallest plastic frog.

When she was a toddler, Ana would gather her collection of toys into a huge pile in the center of the living room and throw a major tantrum if I tried to clean it up. She would sit and play beside the pile until, inevitably, she got tired. Then she’d curl up on some stuffed animals and take a nap. She was like a little dragon fiercely guarding her gold.

Ana eventually moved on from those piles of toys to more structured worlds. She built cities out of wooden blocks, Legos or cardboard. She placed her tiniest toys inside them. She played with them for hours, drawing her younger sister, Emily, into these magical places. Ana was always the boss. Her animals always had starring roles in every adventure.

Ana at age 8, during a day of apple picking.
Ana at age 8, during a day of apple picking. Courtesy of Jacqueline Dooley

For a very brief period of time, Ana’s worlds dominated my home. They appeared on the dining room table and the floor of the den. They appeared in Ana’s bedroom and in Emily’s. They appeared on my coffee table, taking over until I made the girls pack it up and put it away. These initial worlds would inform what was to become Arkomo — Ana’s most beloved world.

***

Ana built Arkomo from clay, Legos, bits and pieces of Playmobil sets and more than a few Polly Pocket dolls — the kind that were about an inch tall. It was a world that unfolded on Ana’s dresser incrementally with trees, houses, roads made from bricks of red and brown vinyl (secured from a local store that sold model train supplies).

She made a sign that read “Welcome to Arkomo” — a name she came up with on her own — and populated the little world with ridiculously small toys called Squinkies. They were rubber people and animals that stood about half an inch high.

The foundation of Arkomo was shaky. It was made from wood blocks secured by blobs of clay with some baked polymer components. The whole thing was wobbly and precarious.

Every time I put Ana’s clothes away, a half dozen Arkomoians would topple from the dresser like vinyl raindrops. I always diligently put them back, trying to restore them to wherever they’d been when they fell. I would find Squinkies on Ana’s floor for years after that dresser — and Ana — were long gone.

Arkomo took up valuable real estate in Ana’s cluttered bedroom. I’d once complained about this to a friend who advised me, with a raised eyebrow, that I should clean it up while Ana was in school. There was no way I could do that. Ana had spent hours building and expanding Arkomo. Destroying it would’ve broken her heart.

In the way of parents who don’t want to create little sociopaths, I worried. I thought that maybe I was spoiling Ana and that she wouldn’t learn how to clean up her messes if I didn’t crack down on the toys. I worried that maybe Ana was getting too old for imaginary worlds.

Ana at 11, about a month after her liver transplant.
Ana at 11, about a month after her liver transplant. Courtesy of Jacqueline Dooley

Ana eventually reclaimed the space on top of her dresser. She turned 10, then 11, and she wanted a stereo and some speakers. She became obsessed with My Little Pony and Funko Pop vinyl toys. She began collecting gemstones, incense and candles. She needed a place to display this stuff. She removed Arkomo, dumping the contents of the little world into a box for easy retrieval.

***

By the time Ana was diagnosed with cancer, Arkomo rarely resurfaced. When she pulled out the box, it was to scavenge a plastic tree or a tiny house for a school project. About a month ago, as I was cleaning the den, I found that box. I knew what was in it. I opened it anyway.

Arkomo was still there: the plastic animals, the vinyl roads, the Playmobil trees. The bits of clay that had held it all together are now crumbled and dry.

I don’t remember the last time Ana played with this stuff. It was likely a decade ago, at least, probably longer. I’ve learned, after seven years of grief, that last times aren’t something that always announce themselves.

Sometimes they’re quiet and subversive. For every last day of school, there are a dozen less grandiose lasts: the last time she watched SpongeBob, the last time she had a sleepover and the very last origami crane she ever folded. I don’t remember the last time Ana played with Arkomo.

I don’t remember the last time, before this year, that I’d opened the box that contained these things that Ana had loved. I don’t remember the last time I sat down on the floor and played beside the child whose face I haven’t seen in so many damn years.

I wish I had taken a picture of Arkomo when it was still on Ana’s dresser. I wish I had paid more attention when she brought her world to life. I wish I had written it all down.

That’s what I would say to you, if you asked me for parenting advice — My God. Write it down. Write it all down.

Ana at 14.
Ana at 14. "Her hair is turning white from chemotherapy," the author writes. Courtesy of Jacqueline Dooley

On March 22, Ana will be gone seven years. It’s a magical number — seven. A child who is 7 can invent entire worlds. If you break a mirror, you get seven years of bad luck. There are seven colors in the rainbow. Seven Chakras. Seven musical notes. 

Seven years is almost exactly half the length of Ana’s life. She died at age 15, just seven weeks shy of her 16th birthday. I don’t know what any of this means or if it means anything at all. Time is a construct, especially when your child dies before you. These expectations we have of ourselves and our children are meaningless.

As our kids grow up (or even if they don’t ), the details we recall of their childhood — of the children they were that only we got to see — fade. This loss is typically softened by the promise of their lives and of their futures. Growing up is always traumatic. We lose some kind of special magic as we get older. But not growing up — that’s even more traumatic. 

The dusty, broken remnants of Ana’s imaginary world reminded me that the child she was — the child only I really knew — is gone. The woman she was supposed to become is also gone. There are no more firsts or lasts for Ana. 

For the seventh anniversary of her death, I wanted to share something about Ana that only a few of us still remember. I wanted to invite you into Arkomo, a place ruled by the tiniest of keepsakes and the imagination of a girl who is deeply missed. Ana was here. She was amazing. She invented entire worlds. Now you know something private and wonderful about her. Take it with you. Make your own worlds. Remember Ana when you behold tiny treasures. 

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

刘劲——钱都去哪里了?房地产泡沫中的货币供给

 中国房地产泡沫来自土地供应的不平衡,控制货币供应并无法精准地抑制地产泡沫,反而会影响到很多和地产毫无关系的产业。解决问题的关键是用财政和行政政策直接调节其中的不平衡

截至2022年底,中国广义货币总量M2的规模已经达到266万亿人民币,是同期GDP(国内生产总值)的2.2倍;22年前(2000年),M2规模只有13.8万亿元,是GDP的1.3倍。在2000年至2022年的大部分时间里,M2的增速都超过了名义GDP,这期间,中国M2年均增速约14.4%,名义GDP只有12%。

一般认为,当货币供应增速超过实体经济增速,一定会带来通胀。但是,从2000年至2022年,中国CPI(居民消费价格指数)年均增速只有2.2%。可能有人会说,CPI衡量的只是与居民日常生活有关的商品和服务的价格,经济生活中还有很多项目,比如投资的价格并不在这里反映,它们的价格可能很高。GDP平减指数与GDP统计范围一致,包括居民消费、政府消费、投资支出以及出口商品和服务四大部分,其中,居民消费部分与CPI的统计范围基本一致,二者的差异仅体现在进出口的商品和服务上。从2000年至2022年,中国GDP平减指数的年均增速约3.3%,比CPI略高一些,但远远算不上高通胀。

为什么高速的货币增长没有带来很高的通胀?一种常见的解释是,央行超发了货币,为了避免引起通胀,我们通过发展房地产,把它作为蓄水池,将多余的资金引向房地产,所以虽然没有很高的通胀,但房地产业却产生了很大的泡沫。这种解释的核心要点是货币超发是个政策失误,而房地产泡沫的起因来自这个政策失误。

但仔细推敲,以上说法产生至少两个疑点。首先,管理经济是个非常复杂的事情,但货币供应相对比较简单。像美国用的是市场机制,通过对债券的买卖来提供或者收回流动性;咱们中国行政机制用的多一些,往往直接对货币供应量以及信贷进行行政指导。如果货币超发是个政策失误,央行为什么会犯如此简单的错误?其次,货币超发如果能引起房地产泡沫,为什么没有引起其它种类资产的泡沫?中国股市为什么年回报率大大低于GDP的名义增长?大城市的住宅用地价格确实有很高的增长率,但为什么工业用地价格不增反跌?

为什么印这么多钱?

要理解货币政策、实体经济、资产泡沫之间的三角关系,我们不妨先看看货币政策是怎样形成的。一般来说,国家的货币政策有两个目的:促进经济增长(其中包括保就业),保持价格稳定。所以货币政策是宏观经济政策的衍生和配套,是国家定了增长目标、价格目标后在货币方面的配套政策,而不是反过来,先定下货币增长目标,然后再看经济怎样增长、价格怎样变动。人们往往把货币政策和农田的浇灌联系起来做比方:浇水是为了长庄稼,少了不行多了也不行,一切都得看庄稼长得怎么样。是庄稼的生长驱动浇水的量,而不是先定下浇水的量,再看庄稼怎么长。

所以,货币供应最重要的驱动因素是经济,高经济增长必然需要高货币增长。M2高速增长的现象并不是中国独有,日本、韩国在其经济的高速增长时期,都发生过类似的事情:从1960年至1998年,韩国实际GDP年均增长10.5%,CPI年均增长11%, M2年均增速达到30.8%,M2占GDP比重从10%提高至95%。日本在1947年至1988年期间,实际GDP年均增长7.3%,CPI年均增长6.9%,M2年均增长17.3%,M2/GDP的比例从35%提高至1倍。目前日韩的M2与GDP的比例也都在2左右。

货币增长的另一个重要原因是资产的货币化,即资产从低流动性、非交易状态向高流动性、经常交易状态的转变。就中国而言,有两类重要资产在快速货币化,一类是企业所有的资产,另一类是土地,当然两者也有交叉(企业资产包括一部分土地)。企业的债权和股权融资,土地的商品开发,都是资产货币化的过程。

2000年初,中国A股市场市值总和只有约4万亿元,每年产生的股权融资总额(含IPO和再融资)在800亿元左右;2023年,A股市值总和已经达到94万亿元,加上港股和中概股的38万亿,总共有132万亿,是GDP的一倍以上;每年的融资总额A股有1.6万亿元,海外超过1000亿。融资本身并不产生GDP,但却需要货币供给才能满足融资的需求。2000年初,A股市场每年的成交量约3万亿元,相当于名义GDP的30%;目前,A股年成交量达到224万亿元,接近名义GDP的两倍。资产的交易本身也不产生GDP(除去中介服务的部分),但也需要流动性才能完成交易。

另一个重要的被货币化的资产是土地。2000年初,中国每年新房销售额(即商品房)在4000亿左右,相当于当时GDP规模的4%;2021年全国新房销售额为16万亿元,另外,据贝壳研究院的测算,2021年全国二手房的销售规模在7万亿元左右,两者合计23万亿元,占2021年GDP的20%。2005年至今,中国每年新增的房地产开发贷和个人按揭贷款(以下合称房地产贷款)占当年全部新增贷款的比重约30%。由于中国不允许将来自信托、银行贷款的资金用于缴纳土地保证金及土地出让款,因此房地产开发贷并不包括企业购买的土地,如果把卖地收入也加进去,这个比重平均达到65%。

由此可见,房地产业对货币供给的需求巨大。如果房地产的价格上升过快,必然带来更大的货币需求。中国房地产有很大的泡沫是有目共睹的事实。根据NUMBEO数据库提供的全球主要城市房价收入比,2022年在全球排名最高的前十个城市中,中国有四个城市上榜:上海、北京、香港分别以46.6、45.8、44.9位居前三,深圳以40位居第六。像纽约、洛杉矶这样的国际大都市,房价收入比都在10以下。

这里核心的问题是到底过量的货币供给催生了房地产泡沫,还是房地产泡沫增加了货币供给的需求。我们前面已经否定了第一种说法。那么,如果是先有房地产泡沫,再有高的货币供给,房地产泡沫就一定得有非货币的产生机制。

土地供需不平衡导致地产泡沫

经济学常识告诉我们,价格由供需关系决定,当需求大供给小,价格就高,反之就低。改革开放这40年来,中国的城镇化速度很快,1978年城镇人口只占总人口的18%,到今天已经是65%。 进入城市的人们需要住房,再加上原有居民的改善需求,所以对住宅用地的需求就很大。其中,像北上广深这些一线城市,以及东部、南部沿海地区,由于经济资源禀赋优越,就吸引了最大的人口净流入。而东北、西北、中部、西南的城市,由于经济发展滞后,人口增长就慢。但我们如果审视住宅用地的供给,不难发现,在人口流入快速的地区,土地的供给并没有相应的增速,有的地方甚至非常保守。这样,在发达地区,由于需求大供给少,自然而然就会使住宅用地和住房的价格飙升;而在欠发达地区,由于需求小供给多,在价格低的情况下仍然有很多供给消化不了。由于中国的人口主要集中在东部、南部,发达地区的地产泡沫就形成了中国的主要矛盾。

例如,从2009年至2021年,北京、上海、广东常住人口年均增速分别为1.9%、1.4%和1%,住宅类用地平均增速分别为2.3%、1.5%和1.3%,看起来正好匹配。但如果加上每年大约每人一平米的改善需求(大约每年3%左右增速),这些地方的供给增速就远远低于需求的增速,于是房地产价格就快速上升。反之,以贵州和湖北为例,二者常住人口年均增速只有0.7%和0.2%,但是住宅类用地的增速则高得多,分别为7.6%和7.3%;更极端的是东三省,黑龙江、吉林和辽宁常住人口分别年均下降1.7%、1.2%和0.2%,但是它们的住宅用地供应量却比北京、上海、广东要大,年均增速分别为2.4%、3.4%和4.2%。所以这些经济欠发达地区的房子往往过剩。

以上是中国土地供需关系中的一个在空间地理位置上的不平衡。

土地供需关系中的第二个不平衡来自中国发展的特有模式:地方政府的土地财政。从政府的角度来看,中国国家经济发展的主要责任在地方政府,而地方政府在财政收入上又严重依赖土地收入。1994年分税制改革大幅降低了地方政府可以享有的流转税和所得税收入,但却把所有与土地有关的税收,包括城镇土地使用税、耕地占用税、土地增值税、契税、房产税,以及当时规模还很少的土地出让收益全部划给了地方政府。2000年,土地出让收入仅占地方财政总收入的5.9%,2021年这一比重已经提高至44%,如果再算上其他与土地相关的税收,地方政府财政收入中一半以上(54%)来自土地。

为了发展经济,地方政府最常用、最主要的方法就是招商引资。地方政府主要靠两种方式吸引资本,一是给予各类税收优惠,二是把工业用地以非常便宜的价格出让。企业进来了,带来了就业机会,就业机会吸引人口流入,人口流入产生住房需求。然而,由于大量土地已经用作工业用地,农业用地又有总量的限制,留给住宅的就自然会少,于是地方政府就拿出相对少量的土地进行住宅建设。这少量的土地可以卖个高价钱,因为需求大供给少。反过来,来自住宅用地的高收入又可以反哺低价工业用地给地方政府带来的损失。于是,土地财政就形成一个闭环,经济得到发展,农村人口可以进城工作,日益高企的住宅用地价格给地方政府带来源源不断的融资……

2022年,中国工业用地、商业用地和住宅类用地的挂牌均价分别为235元/平方米、1354元/平方米和3104元/平方米,住宅用地价格是工业用地的13倍。对比日本,从1975年至2021年,日本全国住宅用地价格与工业用地价格比基本稳定在2倍左右,这表明在日本两类用地的价格涨跌基本一致。从2008年至2022年,在土地出让总面积中,工业用地占53%,住宅类用地占31%,而在土地出让总收入中,工业用地只贡献了7.5%,住宅类用地则贡献了75%。

土地财政这种模式在改革开放初期是个相当完美的闭环,吸引了大量来自港澳台地区以及欧美、日本、韩国的企业,这些外资带来了技术和先进的管理经验,给经济注入巨大活力。但由于中国经济体量巨大,不可能长期靠吸引外资来发展经济,内生性增长必然成为主力军。但以土地财政为核心的招商引资政策对内生性增长却并没有多大帮助:无论是上海把深圳的企业吸引过去,还是苏州把广州的企业吸引过去,对中国经济的整体来说都没有多大意义,因为整体来说没有增量,是个零和游戏。从2008年至2022年,住宅类用地的价格每年增长9.4%,商业用地价格每年增长了1.6%,工业用地不仅没涨,还以每年1.9%的速度下降,已经反映出这种模式的困境——土地财政走到了尽头,一方面吸引企业越来越难,另一方面住宅用地的泡沫已经大到了系统性风险的地步。

我们把土地财政带来的这种不平衡叫做两个泡沫——工业用地的负泡沫和住宅用地的正泡沫。在《中国房地产有两大泡沫,但背后原因只有一个》一文中(发表在《经济观察报》),我们对这种经济现象有更为详细的分析。土地财政的失效,说明地方政府的发展模式、融资方式都出了结构性问题。必须解决这些结构性问题,才能支持中国经济的进一步发展。

房地产泡沫背景下去杠杆的后果

我们得病了去看医生,医生在开药前必须找到病因才可能根治。没有找到病因而开些治表的药物只能掩盖问题的严重性,而让病情持续恶化。同样,如果我们认为房地产泡沫来自货币超发,而不是反过来的因果关系,我们自然会试图通过控制货币的增加来控制资产泡沫。但如果像我们在前面分析,房地产泡沫来自土地供应的不平衡,控制货币供应并无法精准地抑制地产泡沫。而如果一定想用控制货币供给来对地产泡沫产生效应,就肯定会对整个经济产生很大的副作用,会影响到经济中很多和地产毫无关系的产业。

过去几年,中国经济一直处在去杠杆状态。2015年和2016年,中国社会融资规模存量年均增速尚在30%左右,2017年开始迅速下降,到2018年末已经下降至10%,此后一直保持在这个水平。

在整体社会融资中,贷款增速相对稳定,仅从13%略下降至10%左右;受影响最大的是表外融资,包括信托贷款、委托贷款和银行承兑汇票三项。表外融资在2008年金融危机后发展迅猛,增速一度高达30%以上,2015年和2016年,随着全国发生多起金额巨大的银行票据案件,政府收紧了银行承兑汇票业务,表外融资增速明显下降,信托和委托贷款暂时未受影响,2017年表外融资的增速仍有18%,2018年开始资急剧收缩,到2018年下半年已经是负增长并一直持续至今,2017年,表外融资存量占社会融资存量的比重约13%,目前只有5%。

由于中国金融体系的特殊性,不同的企业在金融体系中有不同的地位、不同的风险指数。其中,政府和国有企业(尤其央企)地位最高、风险最低,而民营企业、中小企业的地位低、风险大。所以,成本最低的银行贷款主要优先给了国有企业、大型企业,有剩下的才可能是民营企业和中小企业,而成本更高的表外融资是很多民营企业重要的融资渠道。从控制金融风险的角度讲,将表外纳入表内管理是合理的,从理论上讲,当表外融资缩减后,应该看到其他融资渠道,比如银行贷款、债券发行等出现相应的增长,但实际上并没有发生,贷款增速是下降的,企业债券增速在2015年和2016年期间约30%,到2022年已经不到10%。因此,从总体来看,在去杠杆的过程中,不同性质的企业受到的影响不同,民营企业、中小企业受到最大的冲击。而房地产泡沫受到的影响并不大。

融资受到限制投资必然会下降。通过比较A股上市公司国有企业和民营企业投资支出占营业收入的相对规模,可以看到:国有企业投资支出较为稳定,2015年至2019年间,投资支出占营业收入的比重基本保持在11%左右,2020年开始略有下降,目前保持在9%左右。民营企业投资下降非常明显,2015年至2017年间,其投资支出占营业收入的比重在20%左右,2018年开始下降,目前只有10%左右,下降了50%。

2021年秋天的房地产行业去杠杆是对地产的更加精准的打击。但如果房地产泡沫主要由土地供需的不平衡导致,对房地产企业去杠杆也不会实质性地解决房地产泡沫问题,因为房企只是土地供需关系中的一个中间体,最终的供给方是政府,需求方是老百姓。如果对房地产企业去杠杆太宽松,地产泡沫依旧在;如果对房地产企业去杠杆太严厉,会使地产企业破产但并不能从根本上改变土地的供需关系。再者,由于土地财政的真正推手是地方政府,主要受益者也是地方政府,如果卖不出去地,地方政府会成为最大的受害者。

总结和建议

理解供需关系是理解经济的核心。当经济体系中出现泡沫,无论是正的还是负的,都说明供需关系有不平衡的成分。货币供给是系统性的,货币供给的多少会影响到经济整体的增长以及各类资产、货物、服务的价格高低。中国的发达地区房价过高,有巨大的泡沫,这是不争的事实。但同时中国股市长期回报低于经济增速,而且估值较低;CPI相对于高速增长的经济来说也是相对较低。说明房地产的资产泡沫是局部性的,来自土地的供需不平衡。在本文中我们指出土地的供需不平衡来自两个因素:土地供给和经济增长在地理位置上的不平衡,以及土地财政带来的对工业用地的过渡供给和对住宅用地的过少供给。

解决土地供需问题的关键是用财政和行政政策直接调节其中的不平衡。比如为了缓解发达地区的地产泡沫,或者我们需要提高发达地区的住宅用地供给,或者我们可以把更多的经济资源向欠发达地区调配,用以进行人口的引流。其次,由于土地财政和地方政府的发展策略高度相关,要调节土地的供需关系就必须调整地方政府的发展定位以及融资方式。很明显,如果地方财政高度依赖出让土地带来的收益,土地财政就很难改变。所以,一个可能的改革方向是进行一次新的分税改革,给地方政府更多的流转税、所得税分成,而把大部分土地出让收入回归中央政府。这样,地方政府在发展经济时,就不会有巨大的动机使住宅用地持续升值。另一方面,由于和土地财政联动的地方政府招商引资政策已经日益乏力,应该重新思考地方政府在经济发展中的作用。一个简单的做法是把地方政府调配的资源以降低税收的方式转移给老百姓,用以提高消费需求,这样既可以提振内需又可以缓解产能过剩。

在过去几年去杠杆的过程中,一个不可忽视的事实是民营企业在整个金融体系中的地位过低,因此去杠杆在很大程度上变成了去民营经济的杠杆。但民营经济又是中国经济中效率最高、创新能力最强的一部分,因此也是未来经济高质量发展的主力军。让民营企业和其他性质的企业在经济中有同等的地位是下一步改革亟需解决的问题。

Thursday, February 8, 2024

The West hasn’t grasped the scale of the disaster facing China

 China’s Spring Festival has huge demographic and political significance.

It’s the last surviving relic of a past world, where extended families gathered at their home villages to share respectful greetings to the old, wishes for prosperity (“Gong xi fa cai” in Mandarin) among the younger generation, and joy at the births of new heirs and descendants.

Nearly 40 years of the coercive One Child Policy, not to speak of uncounted deaths from Covid-19 among the elderly last Spring Festival, has taken an irreversible demographic toll on festival jollity.

This year it is snow, not the pandemic, that is disrupting travel and spoiling the party. But this too is a starkly apt metaphor for the wintry grip of Xi Jinping’s authoritarian power. “Good wishes, get rich” rings hollow in these days of economic stagnation and decline.

At home and abroad, much attention was paid on February 6 to an extraordinary Chinese stock market rally, apparently based largely on news that Xi Jinping was in conclave with market regulators over new measures to revive market confidence.

No doubt the timing of this characteristically command economy intervention was carefully chosen to evoke festive cheer. Anyone in the West buying into it, however, needs to take a step back and think again. After all, the rise was led by recognisably state-directed investors.

For years Xi has made much of his achievements in “lifting millions out of poverty”, quietly ignoring the point that this was more about removing Communist ideological blockers to prosperity than it was implementing a better-balanced economic model.

This year, the other shoe has fallen. Bad loans, rent-seeking by inept local government and state-owned enterprises overproducing led to a disastrous property bubble that has now burst. The 30pc share that the property sector held in the economy is now a millstone dragging it into the mire, with other sectors falling into disarray around it.

Beyond the immediate crisis, things aren’t much better in the longer term. China’s workforce is ageing and shrinking, creating a headwind for growth. Younger generations, meanwhile, are increasingly disaffected. Youth unemployment hit a record high of over 21pc in June 2023. The Government’s response was to stop publishing the figures. Small wonder then that market sentiment is so cautious.

While Western media outlets are increasingly willing to publish harsh criticisms of the Chinese leadership’s economic ineptitude, international institutions are still treading cautiously. In December, the World Bank published a readable, elegant China Economic Update which outlined in meticulous detail the quantitative evidence for a slew of ills currently afflicting the Chinese economy.

As befits the organisation’s expertise and credibility, the report also offers a series of suggestions as to what it would be “appropriate” for China to do to revive its fortunes. Given the degree to which Xi Jinping has taken personal control of the levers of state power, he is unquestionably the sole arbiter of high-level economic policy. It’s accordingly of note that there is nowhere in the entire 58-page document a single reference to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), let alone Xi Jinping.

Diplomatic niceties and corporate nerves mean that this failure to name names is replicated in much heavy-weight Western assessment and analysis. The result is a widespread, misguided impression that China has an economy run much like any Western free market, with issues that might “appropriately” be dealt with in a relatively conventional manner.

It is probably true that a well-planned and executed programme of coordinated reforms could lessen a number of China’s current economic headwinds. But they will not be so dealt with, because that is not what Xi Jinping does.

An artificial, short-term surge in market optimism whipped up by the February 6 buying spree does not amount to a credible policy for fixing the mess that the CCP has made of its post-Covid revival, or for liberal economic reforms.

Xi Jinping has a completely different agenda, which includes such economically risky aims as annexing Taiwan, and continuing his support for Putin’s Russia. All his intervention in the stock market has done is highlight how irrelevant conventional market forces are in China.

xi jinping
China’s national strategy under Xi is driven by a political, military and economic contest with the West - ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP

Most rational Western analysis agrees that economic engagement with the PRC is unavoidable. China’s economy is locked in a population doom spiral, loaded with bad debts. But as bad as the economic situation is, the political risks should weigh even heavier.

China’s national strategy under Xi is driven by a political, military and economic contest with the West. The autocrat has staked his reputation on hard, exclusive Chinese nationalism and independence from the Western-led rules-based order. He has already shown in Hong Kong something of his intentions for Taiwan.

Last year, it was reported that 68pc of major corporations bought political risk insurance in 2022, compared with 25pc in 2019. China, where firms are subject to sudden expropriation, and operate at the whim of political overlords, was seen as a particular risk factor, and one it was increasingly hard to insure.

The US investment bank chief executive who last September said he was “highly cautious” about Chinese risk in late November stated bluntly that if there was war in Taiwan, all bets would be off; his bank would exit China if the US government ordered him to.

Economists and business analysts focusing on the prospects for a rise in GDP or a fall in unemployment are focusing on entirely the wrong issues. Our understanding of the Chinese economy was flawed, failing to see how much was built on debt and thin air.

The next thing to unravel could be our last, treasured illusions about how Xi will react to his country sinking into an economic mire, with a falling population. It’s time to prepare for a new cold war.

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

China’s economy is about to implode. We will all feel the aftershocks

 Evergrande, the embattled Chinese real estate giant with debts of $300 billion, has just been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong. What effect will this have, both within China and across the global economy?

This latest twist is no surprise. Evergrande has long been dead in the water. The point to grasp is that Evergrande’s latest setback will not trigger a financial crisis in China; it is rather the result of the financial crisis which has been deepening for at least four years.

For far too long, up to 30 per cent of the Chinese economy had depended on a grossly inflated domestic property bubble. By 2020, when the government finally took urgent measures to limit this debt, its corrosive effects had distorted and disabled both the formal banking sector and also the much less accountable and manageable Shadow Banking system. Both are now in serious disarray as a result.

Ramifications of this unregulated borrowing and lending crisis have spread across the economy at large. The collapse of the property and construction bubble has weakened domestic economic confidence, deepening the unemployment crisis and posing major challenges to local government budgets. These domestic concerns have led to the current implosion of the Chinese stock market. In turn this has compelled foreign investors to take a more realistic position on China risk than believing the golden goose fables still being peddled by Beijing. Meanwhile, with some notable exceptions such as EVs, contraction of markets abroad for Chinese products has highlighted how much China remains export-dependent in a cooling global economy.

All of this calls into question the capacity of the Chinese leadership to halt and reverse the decline of the wider economy. Western commentators have been saying for years that China still has significant potential to revitalise its stagnant economy. Provided swift and deep-rooted reform policies are driven through, China could still pull itself out of the current downward spiral.

But this prospect is rapidly vanishing. The piecemeal efforts Beijing has made to prop up failing property giants like Evergrande and their backers, including the likes of Zhongzhi and Wanxiang, have had no fundamental impact. The CCP needs to devolve more economic powers to the private sector, and reverse the trend to ever-tightening centralisation. Yet Xi Jinping, seemingly unable to relinquish the self-defeating Marxist-Leninist ideology of strengthened Party and personal control, has abandoned the former and doubled down on the latter.

Evergrande had effectively defaulted by late 2021. It lost around 66.3 billion that year. Its founder sold $343 million of shares that November. Losses in 2022 were around 14.6 billion. Complex efforts since to manage debt down have all failed, which is reflected in Monday’s Hong Kong ruling. Evergrande’s operation in the US applied for bankruptcy in August last year. The chances are minimal that Evergrande creditors, whether in China or abroad, will see any of their money back.

The Hong Kong ruling may not in itself deliver the death-blow to Evergrande; the chances of full PRC co-operation in the process of liquidation in mainland China are slim. Some other formula will probably be adopted to disperse its toxic fragments more discreetly. But this too symbolises the issue of credibility the CCP is facing. Beijing remains astride the obsolete economic tiger on which Party power and authority has long depended. Now the tiger’s days are plainly numbered, the Chinese leadership still lacks both the vision and courage to dismount.

But the risks of clinging to this misguided orthodoxy are growing. The new generation of Chinese workers, who should drive forward the revival of their nation, no longer enjoys the growth which brought their parents out of poverty and into the now disintegrating housing market. Their inheritance has been frittered away buying millions of properties that will never be completed. Local government, in default of any more realistic strategy, has become largely dependent for its budgets on questionable land sales to developers who are now going under in their tens of thousands. Public resentment and disaffection with the CCP is on the rise. Xi and his henchmen, as yet safe in their Party citadel, may have fewer and fewer choices to make.

特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

 编者:本文是 保罗·克鲁格曼于2024年11月15日发表于《纽约时报》的一篇评论文章。特朗普的重新当选有全球化退潮的背景,也有美国民主党没能及时推出有力候选人的因素。相较于民主党的执政,特朗普更加具有个人化的特点,也给时局曾经了更多的不确定性。 好消息:我认为特朗普不会引发全球...