The second Cold War is tracking the first war

 In Washington, Beijing and Moscow, all officials want to avoid the new Cold War.these days piece The New York Times suggests that there is little reason to worry. “The competition of today’s superpowers is little like the past,” he insisted. This article points out Russia’s relative weaknesses and China’s technological capabilities to emphasize how things have changed since the late 1940s.

Of course, these differences exist. But to me, the similarities between today’s events and the early Cold War seem more and more compelling and even eerie.

Once again, you have the Russian and Chinese axes arranged against the Western Alliance led from Washington.Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden Coping EU Summit — Secretary of State Antony Blinken speech The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) called for Western unity to deter China’s military ambitions and Russia’s “aggression.” in the meantime, Sergey LavrovThe Russian Foreign Minister was in China and called on Beijing and Moscow to oppose US power.

There is growing tension between the two.The Chinese Air Force has just staged the largest air force in history Invasion In Taiwan airspace.Last week we also imposed China Sanctions About EU and British politicians who spoke about human rights in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Russia withdrew ambassador from Washington this month Protest That’s what we called unprecedented action from the United States. The first meeting between senior Biden administration officials and the Chinese government Public Law..

The line from Beijing is that the current surge in tensions is caused by Washington’s inability to respond to the rise of China. There is a truth to the idea that the United States is obsessed with hegemony.

But Beijing’s story ignores the extent to which changes in China itself have caused changes in attitudes in the United States and Europe. Increased oppression, Personality cult The bending of the Xi Jinping around and Chinese military power of the President, the view of the hawks on China in the United States and Europe making it easier to sell much more.

As in the early days of the first Cold War, several important events embodied growing anxiety in the western capital. From 1945 to 1946, the Soviet Union imposed a satellite system on Eastern Europe, fundamentally reassessing Moscow’s intentions.

More detailed revelation over the past year about the collapse of the democratic movement in Hong Kong and the persecution of Uighurs by Chinese authorities — now labeled genocide By the US Government — played a similar role in changing Western attitudes.Increased high-pitched voice in Chinese “Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy has also sounded a warning, playing a role similar to the series of anti-Western European speeches issued by the Soviet Union in the 1940s.

Until recently, it seemed that Western Europe might try to stay out of alignment in the new Cold War. The EU’s decision to sign a trade and investment agreement with China suggested that Beijing had succeeded in opening the gap between Washington and Brussels.However, as China imposes sanctions on key members of the European Parliament, the EU ratification China’s trade agreement.

The European efforts to secure a reconciliation with Russia, strongly promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron, went nowhere. Increasing oppression in Russia, Imprisonment Opposition activist Alexei Navalny narrows the gap between European and American views on Russia.

In this second Cold War, as in the first, there are flash points in areas where conflicts can intensify. In Asia, some of these are actually the unresolved issues left by the first Cold War: the situation on the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan. In Europe, the front line has moved east. The focus of tension between Moscow and the West is now Ukraine, not Berlin.

During the Trump administration, new competition between the United States and China often lacked the ideological side of the first Cold War. Donald Trump was the trading president, with a particular focus on the US trade deficit with China.According to his former national security adviser John Bolton, Trump Personally encouraged Xi Jinping to pursue a large housing policies in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

However, with the advent of the Biden administration, ideological competition has revived.Biden said he wanted to convene Democracy summit And it is clearly intended to reassert the US claim of being a “leader of the free world.” Like Harry Truman, who was president when the first Cold War was formed, Biden was a former Vice President, Democratic Senator, and was once looked down upon by the intellectual elite of his party. ..

Technical competition is once again at the heart of superpower competition. In the first Cold War, it was a nuclear technology and space race. Today’s superpower rivals are focused on 5G telecommunications and artificial intelligence.

But the technical conflict is happening in another situation. Forty years of globalization have ensured a deep integration of the Chinese and Western economies. Whether the integration can survive the intensifying competition between the great powers is the biggest open question about the new Cold War.