Thursday, September 23, 2021

收藏备用

 搞学习


CSDN:https://www.csdn.net/

TED(最优质的演讲):

https://www.ted.com/

谷粉学术:

https://gfsoso.99lb.net/scholar.html

大学资源网:http://www.dxzy163.com/

简答题:http://www.jiandati.com/

网易公开课:https://open.163.com/ted/

网易云课堂:https://study.163.com/

中国大学MOOC:www.icourse163.org

哔哩哔哩弹幕网:www.bilibili.com

我要自学网:www.51zxw.net

知乎:www.zhihu.com

学堂在线:www.xuetangx.com

爱课程:www.icourses.cn

猫咪论文:https://lunwen.im/

iData(论文搜索):www.cn-ki.net

文泉考试:https://www.wqkaoshi.com


找书籍

书栈网(极力推荐):https://www.bookstack.cn/

码农之家(计算机电子书下载):

www.xz577.com

鸠摩搜书:www.jiumodiary.com

云海电子图书馆:www.pdfbook.cn

周读(书籍搜索):ireadweek.com

知轩藏书:http://www.zxcs.me/

脚本之家电子书下载:

https://www.jb51.net/books/

搜书VIP-电子书搜索:

http://www.soshuvip.com/all.html

书格(在线古籍图书馆):

https://new.shuge.org/

caj云阅读:

http://cajviewer.cnki.net/cajcloud/

必看网(人生必看的书籍):

https://www.biikan.com/


冷知识 / 黑科技

上班摸鱼必备(假装电脑系统升级):http://fakeupdate.net/

PIECES 拼图(30 个 CSS 碎片进行拼图,呈现 30 种濒临灭绝的动物):

http://www.species-in-pieces.com/

图片立体像素画:

https://pissang.github.io/voxelize-image/

福利单词(一个不太正经的背单词网站):

http://dict.ftqq.com

查无此人(刷新网站,展现一张AI 生成的人脸照片):

https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/

在线制作地图图例:https://mapchart.net/

创意光线绘画:http://weavesilk.com/

星系观察:https://stellarium-web.org/

煎蛋:http://jandan.net/

渣男-说话的艺术:https://lovelive.tools/

全历史:https://www.allhistory.com/

iData:https://www.cn-ki.net/

术语在线:http://www.termonline.cn/


写代码

GitHub:https://github.com/

码云:https://gitee.com/

源码之家:https://www.mycodes.net/

JSON to Dart:

https://javiercbk.github.io/json_to_dart/

Json在线解析验证:

https://www.json.cn/

在线接口测试(Getman):

https://getman.cn/


资源搜索 

DogeDoge搜索引擎:www.dogedoge.com

秘迹搜索:https://mijisou.com/

小白盘:https://www.xiaobaipan.com/

云盘精灵(资源搜索):

www.yunpanjingling.com

虫部落(资源搜索):

www.chongbuluo.com

如风搜(资源搜索):

http://www.rufengso.net/

爱扒:https://www.zyboe.com/


小工具 

奶牛快传(在线传输文件利器):cowtransfer.com

文叔叔(大文件传输,不限速):

https://www.wenshushu.cn/

云端超级应用空间(PS,PPT,Excel,Ai):https://uzer.me/

香当网(年终总结,个人简历,事迹材料,租赁合同,演讲稿):

https://www.xiangdang.net/

二维码生成:https://cli.im/

搜狗翻译:fanyi.sogou.com

熵数(图表制作,数据可视化):

https://dydata.io/appv2/#/pages/index/home

拷贝兔:https://cp.anyknew.com/

图片无限变放大:http://bigjpg.com/zh

幕布(在线大纲笔记工具):mubu.com

在线转换器(在线转换器转换任何测量单位):https://zh.justcnw.com/

调查问卷制作:

https://www.wenjuan.com/

果核剥壳(软件下载):

https://www.ghpym.com/

软件下载:https://www.unyoo.com/

MSDN我告诉你(windows10系统镜像下载):https://msdn.itellyou.cn/


导航页(工具集)

世界各国网址大全:

http://www.world68.com/

小森林导航:http://www.xsldh6.com/

简捷工具:http://www.shulijp.com/

NiceTool.net 好工具网:

http://www.nicetool.net/

现实君工具箱(综合型在线工具集成网站):http://tool.uixsj.cn/

蓝调网站:http://lcoc.top/

偷渡鱼:https://touduyu.com/

牛导航:http://www.ziliao6.com/

小呆导航:

https://www.webjike.com/index.html

简法主页:http://www.jianfast.com/

KIM主页:https://kim.plopco.com/

聚BT:https://jubt.net/cn/index.html

精准云工具合集:

https://jingzhunyun.com/

兔2工具合集:https://www.tool2.cn/

爱资料工具(在线实用工具集合):

www.toolnb.com

工具导航:https://hao.logosc.cn/


看视频

阿木影视:https://www.aosk.online/

电影推荐(分类别致):

http://www.mvcat.com

APP影院:https://app.movie

去看TV:https://www.qukantv.net/

动漫视频网:http://www.zzzfun.com/

94神马电影网:http://www.9rmb.com/

NO视频官网:http://www.novipnoad.com/

蓝光画质电影:http://www.languang.co/

在线看剧:http://dy.27234.cn/

大数据导航:http://hao.199it.com/

多功能图片网站:

https://www.logosc.cn/so/

牛牛TV:http://www.ziliao6.com/tv/

VideoFk解析视频:

http://www.videofk.com/

蓝调网站:http://lcoc.top/vip2.3/

永久资源采集网:

http://www.yongjiuzy1.com/


学设计

码力全开(产品/设计师/独立开发者的资源库):https://www.maliquankai.com/designnav/

免费音频素材:https://icons8.cn/music

新CG儿(视频素材模板,无水印+免费下载):

https://www.newcger.com/

Iconfont(阿里巴巴矢量图标库):

https://www.iconfont.cn/

小图标下载:https://www.easyicon.net/

Flight Icon:https://www.flighticon.co/

第一字体转换器:http://www.diyiziti.com/

doyoudosh(平面设计):

www.doyoudo.com

企业宣传视频在线制作:https://duomu.tv/

MAKE海报设计官网:http://maka.im/

一键海报神器:

https://www.logosc.cn/photo/utm_source=hao.logosc.cn&utm_medium=referral

字由(字体设计):

http://www.hellofont.cn/

查字体网站:https://fonts.safe.360.cn/

爱给网(免费素材下载的网站,包括音效、配乐,3D、视频、游戏,平面、教程):http://www.aigei.com/

在线视频剪辑:

https://bilibili.clipchamp.com/editor


搞文档

即书(在线制作PPT):

https://www.keysuper.com/

PDF处理:https://smallpdf.com/cn

PDF处理:https://www.ilovepdf.com/zh-cn

PDF处理:https://www.pdfpai.com/

PDF处理:https://www.hipdf.cn/

图片压缩,PDF处理:

https://docsmall.com/

腾讯文档(在线协作编辑和管理文档):

docs.qq.com

ProcessOn(在线协作制作结构图):

www.processon.com

iLovePDF(在线转换PDF利器):

www.ilovepdf.com

PPT在线制作:https://www.woodo.cn/

PDF24工具(pdf处理工具):

https://tools.pdf24.org/en

IMGBOT(在线图片处理):

www.imgbot.ai

福昕云编辑(在线编辑PDF):

edit.foxitcloud.cn

TinyPNG(在线压缩图片):tinypng.com

UZER.ME(在线使用各种大应用,在线使用CAD,MATLAB,Office三件套

    ):uzer.me

优品PPT(模板下载):

http://www.ypppt.com/

第一PPT(模板下载):

http://www.1ppt.com/xiazai/

三顿PPT导航:sandunppt.com

找图片

电脑壁纸:http://lcoc.top/bizhi/

https://unsplash.com/

https://pixabay.com/

https://www.pexels.com/

https://visualhunt.com/

https://www.ssyer.com/

彼岸图网:http://pic.netbian.com/

极像素(超高清大图):

https://www.sigoo.com/

免费版权图片搜索:

https://www.logosc.cn/so/

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

A Family, a Dream and a Season of Fear

 Corina Knoll

A memorial to Than Than Htwe, an immigrant from Myanmar who was fatally injured in an attack in the New York subway system, at a funeral home in Brooklyn, August 3, 2021. (Natalie Keyssar/The New York Times)
A memorial to Than Than Htwe, an immigrant from Myanmar who was fatally injured in an attack in the New York subway system, at a funeral home in Brooklyn, August 3, 2021. (Natalie Keyssar/The New York Times)

NEW YORK — They are small figures moving through a subway station on a Saturday in Manhattan — a mother and her son speaking softly to each other in Burmese.

Than Than Htwe, 58, is a homebody, content to stay at her family’s Brooklyn apartment on the weekend meditating or simmering fish in a pot of lemon grass and ginger. But she scheduled a doctor’s appointment for this morning so it would not conflict with her job stitching custom aprons.

By Htwe’s side is her only child, Kyaw Zaw Hein. At 22, he carries the hopes of his family on slight shoulders. His parents waited more than a decade in Myanmar for a visa so he could attend an American university. They arrived just three years ago.

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Hein stays close to his mother as they climb the stairs that lead to Canal Street in Chinatown, where the July sun waits. He feels protective of her and looks forward to the day when he earns a salary that provides for all of them.

The landing is in sight when Htwe urges her son to “run up.”

Perhaps she is merely trying to hurry them along. Perhaps she has seen the man behind them with the angry eyes.

Hein attempts to quicken his steps, but he feels a hand bearing down on his blue backpack that then yanks him off his feet until his body is falling. He does not know that his mother has somehow also been forced backward, that she is tumbling down the stairs, that her head has smacked against the tile floor.

When his eyes adjust, he is on the ground, his backpack still on. The man who pulled him down is hovering nearby, a look of disdain on his face. For a moment, Hein worries he will be hurt again. But then the man disappears into the station.

Htwe lies on the ground, her eyes half open. Her son shakes her shoulders, calls to her, tries to cradle her head. That is when he sees the blood in her dark hair, drops of crimson on the ground. He clasps her hand. And screams.

From Myanmar to America

Behind the 1.2 million Asians who call New York City home are so many stories of arrival, newcomers who were willing to be rendered vulnerable by an unfamiliar language and culture, believing that their troubles were worth the promise of possibility.

That journey has intensified for Asian immigrants who have tried to put down roots for themselves during a recent season of fear. In addition to their daily struggles to belong, they have navigated a pandemic whose origin in China has been associated with their race.

In New York alone, victims of Asian descent have been shoved, spit on, urinated on, stabbed in the back, beaten with a hammer or cane, punched unconscious, choked and stomped and kicked in the head. There have been more than 115 anti-Asian crimes reported to the New York Police Department this year. In 2019, there were three.

The violent attacks have tended to receive attention, but with each new report, the last one seems to fade. Shattered lives play out in unknown ways. Victims have been physically and emotionally scarred, their families left to tend to them. Trajectories have been deeply altered.

For Htwe, left lifeless and bleeding on a subway station floor, it has meant an unimaginable finale for a woman whose family had emptied their savings on plane tickets to America.

She and her husband, Myint Shein, would have stayed in Yangon, Myanmar, even with its ongoing civil war and history of deadly military coups, if not for their son. They wanted to offer him a different path.

In December 2018, the family arrived in the Bensonhurst area of Brooklyn. Shein, one of 12 children, had a brother in the neighborhood who had immigrated as a teenager and was a New York police officer. Htwe also had family nearby.

Relatives helped them find a basement apartment where the sunlight was sparse and the ceilings low, but the monthly rent was $500 cheaper than on the ground floor.

Shein, 53, was hired as a sushi chef at Ushiwakamaru, a restaurant in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood. He had learned the trade years ago in Tokyo, where he met Htwe, who was a waitress. They were both ethnically Chinese but born and raised in Myanmar. For their first date, they went to a flea market.

Htwe landed a job at Tilit, which made work clothing for the restaurant and hospitality industries, on the Lower East Side of Manhattan. She had earned a chemistry degree in Myanmar, but never put it to use in the country’s limited job market. At Tilit she laughed with co-workers while meticulously following detailed apron patterns. Sometimes she brought in her family’s mending.

She and her husband pooled their paychecks so their son could study math and economics at Fordham University. Hein loaded on extra classes, in a rush to get his degree. He had a stint at a doughnut shop, but his parents told him to focus only on school.

When the coronavirus reached New York City, Htwe’s and Shein’s workplaces shut down. They received some unemployment, but their stress heightened and both lost weight. Reports of anti-Asian attacks were distressing, and they warned each other to stay alert.

The virus itself was also profoundly troubling. In the early days of the pandemic, Htwe, beloved for her patience, screamed at her son if he attempted to leave the house.

The three saw relatives, but otherwise preferred to stick to one another near home, tiptoeing out a quiet life.

When her job opened back up, Htwe was the first to return to the sewing room, eager to make money. Often, the owners’ new puppy, a St. Bernard, was found at her feet. Jenny Goodman, who started Tilit with her husband, said Htwe would bring the dog purple yams and let it nuzzle up against her while she worked.

“She was a kind, kind soul.”

A hospital vigil, and a suspect

Shein was home in bed when his son called with words that did not make sense.

Ambulance. Mom hit her head. Come to the hospital.

When he arrived at Bellevue Hospital, he found that his wife of 23 years lay too still. “When you left, everything was OK,” Shein said, his voice wavering.

He and his son became regulars in the building, lingering near a woman who could not tell them what to do next. Relatives and co-workers visited. Wake up, they said, stroking her arm.

Hein served as the contact for the police, giving a statement to detectives. Images of the man believed to be the attacker were released to the media. The police soon announced that they had a suspect, identified from tips. His name was David Robinson, 52. And he could not be located.

The police called the crime a botched robbery, based on Hein’s description of the incident. But that began to bother Hein, who wondered whether he and his mother were preyed upon because of their race.

A local Asian American activist raised $10,000 as a reward for information leading to an arrest. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate for mayor, held up Robinson’s photo at a news conference and said Asians were being hunted down in the city with impunity.

The events made Hein think justice would be hastened.

After 10 days, Htwe was still unconscious. On July 27, father and son stood for hours in a corner of her room. Finally, her son knelt beside her and bowed three times. Her husband said with reluctance, “This is the last time I will come to see you.”

The next day, Htwe was taken off life support. She had become a homicide victim, her killer still free.

They buried her with a string of pearls and a white winter hat to cover the wounds.

‘I didn’t do enough’

The police are not investigating Htwe’s death as an anti-Asian attack, although the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office said it was examining the possibility. It would likely take explicit evidence, such as the utterance of a racial slur, for the attacker, who is Black, to be charged with a hate crime. Only a tiny percentage of the attacks involving victims of Asian descent have fit this bill. The rest are often described as random.

The more Hein thinks about the way he was yanked down the stairs — as if the backpack securely on his shoulders was the tool, not the target — he is convinced the attack was racially motivated. And he has not forgotten the way the man looked at him, as if considering whether to strike, even as his mother lay motionless.

Just as troubling for Hein is the image of his mother toiling away much of her life. The last years had made her uneasy and frail.

“I would have worked if I had known this would happen,” Hein said. “I would have just let her enjoy her life. I didn’t do enough.”

Htwe’s belongings are still strewn about their tiny apartment. The home feels hushed and strange, but Hein studies, watches anime, listens to K-pop. His father meditates, feeds the birds, waters the plants.

They have yet to hear whether they will be left with costly medical bills. A relative set up a GoFundMe, but when it passed $47,000, the family shut it down, not wanting to be greedy.

Hein has been sleeping on the floor of his father’s room. His mattress is where his mother once meditated before a Buddhist altar. She would sit there for hours with prayer beads, and he would rest his head on her lap and nod off. He misses that the most.

An unclear future

What began as a trio in America will, at some point, be a household of one.

Shein has made up his mind to become a monk and return to Myanmar. His 11 siblings have left the country, but he would rather be alone than in New York.

His son understands. “I want to send him back where he is happy,” he said. The two feel good that their bond has strengthened, that they have seen each other’s tears.

They are still waiting to hear an update on Htwe’s case. Sometimes it feels as if she has been forgotten. The Police Department declined to comment but said it was hoping the public would help find Robinson.

Shein’s brother Min Liang, the New York police officer, said it is not unusual to have a suspect but no arrest. Liang, 45, works in evidence collection and has not been involved in Htwe’s case, but said he trusted the detectives who are handling it.

“There’s more than 8 million people in New York City,” he said. “They’re not going to find everybody.”

The lack of resolution has made Hein and his father anxious that the same person will hurt someone else, that Htwe’s death will have changed nothing. They also worry about running into the suspect. Their fear of public places has only amplified.

But Hein has no plans to leave with his father. He has been enamored of America ever since he was a boy and relatives visited Myanmar in Nike sneakers and crisp Nautica shirts. “Even the smell of their laundry detergent was so good,” he remembered. He plans to graduate next spring and has seen for himself the vast difference in the quality of education and job opportunities available in his new home.

It is a broken adaptation of the success he had envisioned. Who could have foreseen such sorrow? Perhaps it will be a lonely, hollow existence.

But he cannot shake the feeling that a young man like him could still rise here, could still forge a future in which he supports his father from afar and pays tribute to his mother’s hopes.

Even on his own, he could shape a version of the kind of American life they all once dreamed together.

© 2021 The New York Times Company

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

房地产泡沫是什么?

 其实我挺喜欢这个问题的,因为我们走的这条路很多国家也这样走过,房地产是新兴发展中国家所必须面临的问题。

人口密集的东区地区被世人比喻为“地狱”模式,二战后美国与西欧进入了天堂模式,“人人大皮卡,家家大别墅”的生活从电视剧上也能反应出来。

而东亚则出现人口爆炸,因而导致的资源匮乏让东亚人民生来就产生焦虑,辛辛苦苦奋斗一生换来的跃层跃迁带不给他们足够的幸福和满足感,反而产生为子孙的未来的担忧感。

在中国,房子捆绑了太多的东西:教育、医疗、养老等等,没有房子,在一定程度上就代表没有未来,有了房子似乎过一个好日子才成为可能。

房地产的热度喧嚣了近二三十年,网络上一如既往地唱空或者唱衰,但房价却不受这些喧嚣声的影响,固执地继续往上涨个不停,但它真能够一直涨个不停吗?

凡事都是有极限的,自从2008年经济危机后全球就开始了吹泡沫的时代,美股,中房,欧债的发展像似乎都没有尽头一般,但我们都清楚一件事:事物的发展是依据特定规律的,没有任何事物能够违背这些规律。

来谈谈现在为什么很多人说房地产是泡沫吧。

我们都知道房子的建筑成本是很低的,那么他的实际价值在哪里呢?最近知乎上“青山布衣”关于房子剪刀差剥削居民剩余价值的言论火遍全网,我十分佩服他的视角,确实给了我的新的思路和方向,那么我就换一个视角来说说房地产泡沫吧。

首先我们要理解“杠杆”这个概念,杠杆来源于阿基米德那一句流传千古的名言:给我一个杠杆,我将撬动整个地球。

从字面意思上看就是以小博大,用极少的力去撬动更大的物品。

在投资领域中,这个概念的含义就是拿借来的钱去投资,而这种配资措施,能够极大放大原有的收益率。

今天就拿戚大妈“刚需买房”跟夏大娘“投机炒房”两者来说明这个事情吧:

戚大妈首付买房:

以大妈为例,比如说戚大妈斜挎腰包,热衷买房,但她苦于手上钱着实不多,大概只有100W,买不到武汉那么贵的房子,但戚大妈天资过人,坚信武汉房价必然要涨,于是找到夏大娘借了100W,成功以200W上车在武汉买了一套房子,随后三个月,武汉房子暴涨20%,等于说戚大妈就从这笔交易中赚到了40W,但注意,戚大妈原先付出的只是100W,所以房价暴涨的20%对于戚大妈来说就等于赚了40%,戚大妈威武。

而在这个过程中,戚大妈问夏大娘借了100W,算上她原有100W的资金,戚大妈用了100W的资金撬动了200W的房产,这个就是2倍杠杆。

当然对社会上来讲,戚大妈们借钱往往是从银行借的,因为不是所有戚大妈都能找到夏大娘借来钱。这种拿100W买房,同时借100W就是5成首付买房(2倍杠杆),而如果戚大妈这时候没有100w,而是只拿50W去买房,这个时候相当于戚大妈只花了50W买了价值200W的房子,这个就是4倍杠杆,而这时候200W房子如果涨20%等于什么呢?就等于戚大妈拿原有50w已经赚了40W,这就是说戚大妈已经赚了80%了。

所以对于绝大部分购房者来说,在预计房价一定上涨的时候,首付比例越低越好,这意味着你拿更少的资金去撬动了更大价值的房子,而在房子上涨的时候,你首付比例越低就意味着你收益率越高。

夏大娘投机炒房:


以夏大娘为代表的炒房客就是这些把杠杆运用到极致的群体了。

和戚大妈这种只是玩这种低首付购房拿常规杠杆的玩家相比,夏大娘无疑是真正的高玩,因为这个时候夏大娘已经明白如何把杠杆率拉到最大了。

那就是继续扩大杠杆,夏大娘按照戚大妈用低首付买了这些房子,然后疯狂再抵押再买房。说实话房产抵押一般是不能再拿来买房了,但是规定归规定,现实还是现实的,就跟我说的那样,中央本意是把钱给到中小企业,但实际都流到深圳房子上了。

然后在这个过程中,夏大娘低首付买完房子,在外面找到银行或者找到私人继续抵押,然后再贷来这么多钱,虽然绝大部分时候她只能贷回来大概75%,但是最终她可以继续拿这些钱去买房。

理论上讲,如果夏大娘能够抵押到100%的款子的话,她甚至一个人就能把所有房子就买光,然后这个杠杆倍数达到了多少倍呢?可能会是几十倍甚至上百倍。

但这就跟我说的那样,市面的房子数量是一定的,如果大家都按照戚大妈那样去玩,也就是拿现在的钱去买未来的房子其实还是能理解的,因为人家戚大妈也算是先享受后付钱。

但夏大娘这样的就是坑爹了,因为夏大娘这样的操作她就是只拿了这么点钱就买下来了市面上绝大部分的房子,然后她买了,别人就别想了。

其实如果大家都正常买房不把房子当成投机工具,人人都能住上大房子的。

但是事实上呢,现实就是现实,现在的房子就是大家都把它当成某种投机工具罢了。

到现在为止我们看懂了这个概念后,正式进入房地产泡沫:

现在社会出现了一个很奇怪情况:一说资产成千上万,一说现金万把块都拿不出来。

我们来说说那个人均百万的事情的吧:以央行调查统计司城镇居民家庭资产负债调查课题组公布的《2019年家庭财产调查报告》来说吧,虽然这个课题被人吐槽的已经是体无完肤了,但还是能反映一些问题的:

一、户均平均资产289万
二、住房自有率96%
三、房产占资产比例超过70%
四、负债参与度超过70%
五、房贷占所有贷款比例75%

那么我们先看这些数据,很明显就能显示出大部分人的资产都在房子上了,而且不好意思的是这些资产还是靠贷款买来的。

不同于股票,因为房子的流动性低的原因,房子天然容易形成死多情况,而且很多人有一个很奇怪的想法:卖房子就等于败家。

这就直接导致了我从来不敢教唆人家卖房,怕了怕了。

但说实话,绝大多数人买房的时候就是奔着投资去的,但又在卖房的时候墨守成规。

这本身的逻辑就是滑稽而且可笑的。

落袋为安才是真正的收益,绝大多数的房子价值只是纸面上的。

不要看这些悬在空中的东西,只有实实在在落在手里能换取资源的才有意义。

我来讲讲为什么吧。

因为房地产市场并不是一个充分流动的市场,大部分人买了房子之后是不会选择卖的,于是就变成了天然死多,而这样的话很容易就被少数人操盘了。

就比如说我做了这张图,每个人都有:

但是注意一下,这个时候市面上的钱总归是4W,房子价格是4w,这是很实在的。

而这个时候小E出现了,他直接把单价开到了4000,但他只买了一套。

神奇的事情发生了,市面小E现金减少4000,小A现金增加了4000,但是其余BCD的资产凭空因为小E买了一套房多了整整10000,但现在市场其实算上小E进来带来的10000总归有多少钱呢?

50000 但是市场上房子的价值已经到达了多少了?80000

这也就意味着,如果没有新的资金,按照新的价格来卖房子,总有一些人是会亏死的。

但现实生活中其实不是这样的,我们每年都会新发一些货币,所以这个资金量是会扩大的,但是这个资金量能跟上房价的涨幅嘛?就算能,新进入市场的人还有钱吗?

这个时候小F进来了,也带了10000,但是现在房子直接涨到了20000,小F没办法去借钱买了房子,然后这时候神奇的事情又发生了,总共房地产上的资金变成了多少?

60000,但这个时候资产价值到多少了呢?400000

意思就是说明明市场上就这么点钱,但是市场资产已经变成了400000,按照现在价格20000一套来说,除非再来一个小G买这些房子,否则这个时候这些房子根本就卖不出这些钱,那么这个时候谁赚了,谁亏了?

小A赚了,因为他拿走了市场上绝大部分的现金,他就算那剩下的3套房子跌成负数,他也比之前那2w净资产(其中包含着1w现金)多了,他是赢家了。

但是这个过程中,E,F作为后入市场者,他们全亏了,关键是谁亏的最多,毫无疑问就是小F亏得最多。

这就是房地产泡沫的由来,目前中国市场经历了几十年的印钞,流通在市场的钱比以前确实已经变多了,但这些钱由于无处可去的原因最终纷纷流入房地产的同时也把房地产抬到一个很高的地步,而我举的例子还都是全款买房的例子,对于贷款买房情况更是糟糕的,这就意味着后入者拿的钱完全都是从银行借来的那些先入者的钱。

这就意味着市场上钱增长的很缓慢,但是资产价格已经增加了很高的一个水平了。

这个游戏其实是没有错的,股票也是这个游戏,决定这些房子价值的其实本质就是那些钢筋水泥以及所在城市区位优势的需求而不在炒作,而到现在游戏的关键根本不在于先入者了,因为那些最早的先入者不论如何都不会亏本,但对每一个后入者来说,他们一步步接盘了最高的房价。

但我们都明白,社会的资金往往都是聚集在上层社会的,底层人民的承受压力总归是有限的,六个钱包已经是快到顶点了,但如果六个钱包还不够的话,大不了就不买了呗。

这个房地产游戏里所有的聪明人都知道这个游戏的本质,他们是不会承担最后房地产雪崩的代价的,他们会抢在没有人进入市场前把他们拥有的所有资产全部变卖出去换成现金,然后市场最终会发生一件事,房子跌了。

房子跌的直接后果会是什么?就像是前一段美股熔断一样,疯狂往下跌,根本不讲理,最后跌破它原有的价值,在这个过程中,所有人想要的都是现金。

因为房子给你换不来实实在在的物资,尤其是在社会危难的时候,如果你手里没有足够的现金流,你根本换不来所需的一切物资。

这个时候你只能变卖原有的资产,但少数的人变卖根本不影响大局,但是如果这些变卖的人多了的话,大家就会疯狂开始变卖了。

因为绝大多数的人买房都是分期付款,这就意味他们加了很高的杠杆,他们在享受了这些高收益的同时也承担着相应的风险,假设他们都是两成首付,那么当房子跌下去20%的时候,他们就亏完了,但他们还得还银行的钱,这也就是为什么日本房地产泡沫后职业人背上沉重负债的原因,同时这一背就是30年。

这就是房地产泡沫,如果有机会的话,我想着可以就这个东西做一个拓展,给大家再详细讲讲相关的泡沫形成和破灭。

房地产那句话是没错的,长期看人口,短期看政策。

中国房地产神话的年代已经快过去了,它或许还能有一波的上涨,但相信我,它不会再继续往上疯狂涨了,泡沫形成的越大,戳破之后伤害的永远是最后上车的那些人。

陈旧的泡沫终会破碎,与其去留恋最后的辉煌,不如沉下心来想想下一个泡沫在哪里。

我一直说:历史的见证人不重要,历史的受益者才重要,但无论如何,我们都最好不要当历史代价的承担者。

编辑于 2020-05-01

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