Thursday, September 23, 2021

收藏备用

 搞学习


CSDN:https://www.csdn.net/

TED(最优质的演讲):

https://www.ted.com/

谷粉学术:

https://gfsoso.99lb.net/scholar.html

大学资源网:http://www.dxzy163.com/

简答题:http://www.jiandati.com/

网易公开课:https://open.163.com/ted/

网易云课堂:https://study.163.com/

中国大学MOOC:www.icourse163.org

哔哩哔哩弹幕网:www.bilibili.com

我要自学网:www.51zxw.net

知乎:www.zhihu.com

学堂在线:www.xuetangx.com

爱课程:www.icourses.cn

猫咪论文:https://lunwen.im/

iData(论文搜索):www.cn-ki.net

文泉考试:https://www.wqkaoshi.com


找书籍

书栈网(极力推荐):https://www.bookstack.cn/

码农之家(计算机电子书下载):

www.xz577.com

鸠摩搜书:www.jiumodiary.com

云海电子图书馆:www.pdfbook.cn

周读(书籍搜索):ireadweek.com

知轩藏书:http://www.zxcs.me/

脚本之家电子书下载:

https://www.jb51.net/books/

搜书VIP-电子书搜索:

http://www.soshuvip.com/all.html

书格(在线古籍图书馆):

https://new.shuge.org/

caj云阅读:

http://cajviewer.cnki.net/cajcloud/

必看网(人生必看的书籍):

https://www.biikan.com/


冷知识 / 黑科技

上班摸鱼必备(假装电脑系统升级):http://fakeupdate.net/

PIECES 拼图(30 个 CSS 碎片进行拼图,呈现 30 种濒临灭绝的动物):

http://www.species-in-pieces.com/

图片立体像素画:

https://pissang.github.io/voxelize-image/

福利单词(一个不太正经的背单词网站):

http://dict.ftqq.com

查无此人(刷新网站,展现一张AI 生成的人脸照片):

https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/

在线制作地图图例:https://mapchart.net/

创意光线绘画:http://weavesilk.com/

星系观察:https://stellarium-web.org/

煎蛋:http://jandan.net/

渣男-说话的艺术:https://lovelive.tools/

全历史:https://www.allhistory.com/

iData:https://www.cn-ki.net/

术语在线:http://www.termonline.cn/


写代码

GitHub:https://github.com/

码云:https://gitee.com/

源码之家:https://www.mycodes.net/

JSON to Dart:

https://javiercbk.github.io/json_to_dart/

Json在线解析验证:

https://www.json.cn/

在线接口测试(Getman):

https://getman.cn/


资源搜索 

DogeDoge搜索引擎:www.dogedoge.com

秘迹搜索:https://mijisou.com/

小白盘:https://www.xiaobaipan.com/

云盘精灵(资源搜索):

www.yunpanjingling.com

虫部落(资源搜索):

www.chongbuluo.com

如风搜(资源搜索):

http://www.rufengso.net/

爱扒:https://www.zyboe.com/


小工具 

奶牛快传(在线传输文件利器):cowtransfer.com

文叔叔(大文件传输,不限速):

https://www.wenshushu.cn/

云端超级应用空间(PS,PPT,Excel,Ai):https://uzer.me/

香当网(年终总结,个人简历,事迹材料,租赁合同,演讲稿):

https://www.xiangdang.net/

二维码生成:https://cli.im/

搜狗翻译:fanyi.sogou.com

熵数(图表制作,数据可视化):

https://dydata.io/appv2/#/pages/index/home

拷贝兔:https://cp.anyknew.com/

图片无限变放大:http://bigjpg.com/zh

幕布(在线大纲笔记工具):mubu.com

在线转换器(在线转换器转换任何测量单位):https://zh.justcnw.com/

调查问卷制作:

https://www.wenjuan.com/

果核剥壳(软件下载):

https://www.ghpym.com/

软件下载:https://www.unyoo.com/

MSDN我告诉你(windows10系统镜像下载):https://msdn.itellyou.cn/


导航页(工具集)

世界各国网址大全:

http://www.world68.com/

小森林导航:http://www.xsldh6.com/

简捷工具:http://www.shulijp.com/

NiceTool.net 好工具网:

http://www.nicetool.net/

现实君工具箱(综合型在线工具集成网站):http://tool.uixsj.cn/

蓝调网站:http://lcoc.top/

偷渡鱼:https://touduyu.com/

牛导航:http://www.ziliao6.com/

小呆导航:

https://www.webjike.com/index.html

简法主页:http://www.jianfast.com/

KIM主页:https://kim.plopco.com/

聚BT:https://jubt.net/cn/index.html

精准云工具合集:

https://jingzhunyun.com/

兔2工具合集:https://www.tool2.cn/

爱资料工具(在线实用工具集合):

www.toolnb.com

工具导航:https://hao.logosc.cn/


看视频

阿木影视:https://www.aosk.online/

电影推荐(分类别致):

http://www.mvcat.com

APP影院:https://app.movie

去看TV:https://www.qukantv.net/

动漫视频网:http://www.zzzfun.com/

94神马电影网:http://www.9rmb.com/

NO视频官网:http://www.novipnoad.com/

蓝光画质电影:http://www.languang.co/

在线看剧:http://dy.27234.cn/

大数据导航:http://hao.199it.com/

多功能图片网站:

https://www.logosc.cn/so/

牛牛TV:http://www.ziliao6.com/tv/

VideoFk解析视频:

http://www.videofk.com/

蓝调网站:http://lcoc.top/vip2.3/

永久资源采集网:

http://www.yongjiuzy1.com/


学设计

码力全开(产品/设计师/独立开发者的资源库):https://www.maliquankai.com/designnav/

免费音频素材:https://icons8.cn/music

新CG儿(视频素材模板,无水印+免费下载):

https://www.newcger.com/

Iconfont(阿里巴巴矢量图标库):

https://www.iconfont.cn/

小图标下载:https://www.easyicon.net/

Flight Icon:https://www.flighticon.co/

第一字体转换器:http://www.diyiziti.com/

doyoudosh(平面设计):

www.doyoudo.com

企业宣传视频在线制作:https://duomu.tv/

MAKE海报设计官网:http://maka.im/

一键海报神器:

https://www.logosc.cn/photo/utm_source=hao.logosc.cn&utm_medium=referral

字由(字体设计):

http://www.hellofont.cn/

查字体网站:https://fonts.safe.360.cn/

爱给网(免费素材下载的网站,包括音效、配乐,3D、视频、游戏,平面、教程):http://www.aigei.com/

在线视频剪辑:

https://bilibili.clipchamp.com/editor


搞文档

即书(在线制作PPT):

https://www.keysuper.com/

PDF处理:https://smallpdf.com/cn

PDF处理:https://www.ilovepdf.com/zh-cn

PDF处理:https://www.pdfpai.com/

PDF处理:https://www.hipdf.cn/

图片压缩,PDF处理:

https://docsmall.com/

腾讯文档(在线协作编辑和管理文档):

docs.qq.com

ProcessOn(在线协作制作结构图):

www.processon.com

iLovePDF(在线转换PDF利器):

www.ilovepdf.com

PPT在线制作:https://www.woodo.cn/

PDF24工具(pdf处理工具):

https://tools.pdf24.org/en

IMGBOT(在线图片处理):

www.imgbot.ai

福昕云编辑(在线编辑PDF):

edit.foxitcloud.cn

TinyPNG(在线压缩图片):tinypng.com

UZER.ME(在线使用各种大应用,在线使用CAD,MATLAB,Office三件套

    ):uzer.me

优品PPT(模板下载):

http://www.ypppt.com/

第一PPT(模板下载):

http://www.1ppt.com/xiazai/

三顿PPT导航:sandunppt.com

找图片

电脑壁纸:http://lcoc.top/bizhi/

https://unsplash.com/

https://pixabay.com/

https://www.pexels.com/

https://visualhunt.com/

https://www.ssyer.com/

彼岸图网:http://pic.netbian.com/

极像素(超高清大图):

https://www.sigoo.com/

免费版权图片搜索:

https://www.logosc.cn/so/

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

A Family, a Dream and a Season of Fear

 Corina Knoll

A memorial to Than Than Htwe, an immigrant from Myanmar who was fatally injured in an attack in the New York subway system, at a funeral home in Brooklyn, August 3, 2021. (Natalie Keyssar/The New York Times)
A memorial to Than Than Htwe, an immigrant from Myanmar who was fatally injured in an attack in the New York subway system, at a funeral home in Brooklyn, August 3, 2021. (Natalie Keyssar/The New York Times)

NEW YORK — They are small figures moving through a subway station on a Saturday in Manhattan — a mother and her son speaking softly to each other in Burmese.

Than Than Htwe, 58, is a homebody, content to stay at her family’s Brooklyn apartment on the weekend meditating or simmering fish in a pot of lemon grass and ginger. But she scheduled a doctor’s appointment for this morning so it would not conflict with her job stitching custom aprons.

By Htwe’s side is her only child, Kyaw Zaw Hein. At 22, he carries the hopes of his family on slight shoulders. His parents waited more than a decade in Myanmar for a visa so he could attend an American university. They arrived just three years ago.

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Hein stays close to his mother as they climb the stairs that lead to Canal Street in Chinatown, where the July sun waits. He feels protective of her and looks forward to the day when he earns a salary that provides for all of them.

The landing is in sight when Htwe urges her son to “run up.”

Perhaps she is merely trying to hurry them along. Perhaps she has seen the man behind them with the angry eyes.

Hein attempts to quicken his steps, but he feels a hand bearing down on his blue backpack that then yanks him off his feet until his body is falling. He does not know that his mother has somehow also been forced backward, that she is tumbling down the stairs, that her head has smacked against the tile floor.

When his eyes adjust, he is on the ground, his backpack still on. The man who pulled him down is hovering nearby, a look of disdain on his face. For a moment, Hein worries he will be hurt again. But then the man disappears into the station.

Htwe lies on the ground, her eyes half open. Her son shakes her shoulders, calls to her, tries to cradle her head. That is when he sees the blood in her dark hair, drops of crimson on the ground. He clasps her hand. And screams.

From Myanmar to America

Behind the 1.2 million Asians who call New York City home are so many stories of arrival, newcomers who were willing to be rendered vulnerable by an unfamiliar language and culture, believing that their troubles were worth the promise of possibility.

That journey has intensified for Asian immigrants who have tried to put down roots for themselves during a recent season of fear. In addition to their daily struggles to belong, they have navigated a pandemic whose origin in China has been associated with their race.

In New York alone, victims of Asian descent have been shoved, spit on, urinated on, stabbed in the back, beaten with a hammer or cane, punched unconscious, choked and stomped and kicked in the head. There have been more than 115 anti-Asian crimes reported to the New York Police Department this year. In 2019, there were three.

The violent attacks have tended to receive attention, but with each new report, the last one seems to fade. Shattered lives play out in unknown ways. Victims have been physically and emotionally scarred, their families left to tend to them. Trajectories have been deeply altered.

For Htwe, left lifeless and bleeding on a subway station floor, it has meant an unimaginable finale for a woman whose family had emptied their savings on plane tickets to America.

She and her husband, Myint Shein, would have stayed in Yangon, Myanmar, even with its ongoing civil war and history of deadly military coups, if not for their son. They wanted to offer him a different path.

In December 2018, the family arrived in the Bensonhurst area of Brooklyn. Shein, one of 12 children, had a brother in the neighborhood who had immigrated as a teenager and was a New York police officer. Htwe also had family nearby.

Relatives helped them find a basement apartment where the sunlight was sparse and the ceilings low, but the monthly rent was $500 cheaper than on the ground floor.

Shein, 53, was hired as a sushi chef at Ushiwakamaru, a restaurant in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood. He had learned the trade years ago in Tokyo, where he met Htwe, who was a waitress. They were both ethnically Chinese but born and raised in Myanmar. For their first date, they went to a flea market.

Htwe landed a job at Tilit, which made work clothing for the restaurant and hospitality industries, on the Lower East Side of Manhattan. She had earned a chemistry degree in Myanmar, but never put it to use in the country’s limited job market. At Tilit she laughed with co-workers while meticulously following detailed apron patterns. Sometimes she brought in her family’s mending.

She and her husband pooled their paychecks so their son could study math and economics at Fordham University. Hein loaded on extra classes, in a rush to get his degree. He had a stint at a doughnut shop, but his parents told him to focus only on school.

When the coronavirus reached New York City, Htwe’s and Shein’s workplaces shut down. They received some unemployment, but their stress heightened and both lost weight. Reports of anti-Asian attacks were distressing, and they warned each other to stay alert.

The virus itself was also profoundly troubling. In the early days of the pandemic, Htwe, beloved for her patience, screamed at her son if he attempted to leave the house.

The three saw relatives, but otherwise preferred to stick to one another near home, tiptoeing out a quiet life.

When her job opened back up, Htwe was the first to return to the sewing room, eager to make money. Often, the owners’ new puppy, a St. Bernard, was found at her feet. Jenny Goodman, who started Tilit with her husband, said Htwe would bring the dog purple yams and let it nuzzle up against her while she worked.

“She was a kind, kind soul.”

A hospital vigil, and a suspect

Shein was home in bed when his son called with words that did not make sense.

Ambulance. Mom hit her head. Come to the hospital.

When he arrived at Bellevue Hospital, he found that his wife of 23 years lay too still. “When you left, everything was OK,” Shein said, his voice wavering.

He and his son became regulars in the building, lingering near a woman who could not tell them what to do next. Relatives and co-workers visited. Wake up, they said, stroking her arm.

Hein served as the contact for the police, giving a statement to detectives. Images of the man believed to be the attacker were released to the media. The police soon announced that they had a suspect, identified from tips. His name was David Robinson, 52. And he could not be located.

The police called the crime a botched robbery, based on Hein’s description of the incident. But that began to bother Hein, who wondered whether he and his mother were preyed upon because of their race.

A local Asian American activist raised $10,000 as a reward for information leading to an arrest. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate for mayor, held up Robinson’s photo at a news conference and said Asians were being hunted down in the city with impunity.

The events made Hein think justice would be hastened.

After 10 days, Htwe was still unconscious. On July 27, father and son stood for hours in a corner of her room. Finally, her son knelt beside her and bowed three times. Her husband said with reluctance, “This is the last time I will come to see you.”

The next day, Htwe was taken off life support. She had become a homicide victim, her killer still free.

They buried her with a string of pearls and a white winter hat to cover the wounds.

‘I didn’t do enough’

The police are not investigating Htwe’s death as an anti-Asian attack, although the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office said it was examining the possibility. It would likely take explicit evidence, such as the utterance of a racial slur, for the attacker, who is Black, to be charged with a hate crime. Only a tiny percentage of the attacks involving victims of Asian descent have fit this bill. The rest are often described as random.

The more Hein thinks about the way he was yanked down the stairs — as if the backpack securely on his shoulders was the tool, not the target — he is convinced the attack was racially motivated. And he has not forgotten the way the man looked at him, as if considering whether to strike, even as his mother lay motionless.

Just as troubling for Hein is the image of his mother toiling away much of her life. The last years had made her uneasy and frail.

“I would have worked if I had known this would happen,” Hein said. “I would have just let her enjoy her life. I didn’t do enough.”

Htwe’s belongings are still strewn about their tiny apartment. The home feels hushed and strange, but Hein studies, watches anime, listens to K-pop. His father meditates, feeds the birds, waters the plants.

They have yet to hear whether they will be left with costly medical bills. A relative set up a GoFundMe, but when it passed $47,000, the family shut it down, not wanting to be greedy.

Hein has been sleeping on the floor of his father’s room. His mattress is where his mother once meditated before a Buddhist altar. She would sit there for hours with prayer beads, and he would rest his head on her lap and nod off. He misses that the most.

An unclear future

What began as a trio in America will, at some point, be a household of one.

Shein has made up his mind to become a monk and return to Myanmar. His 11 siblings have left the country, but he would rather be alone than in New York.

His son understands. “I want to send him back where he is happy,” he said. The two feel good that their bond has strengthened, that they have seen each other’s tears.

They are still waiting to hear an update on Htwe’s case. Sometimes it feels as if she has been forgotten. The Police Department declined to comment but said it was hoping the public would help find Robinson.

Shein’s brother Min Liang, the New York police officer, said it is not unusual to have a suspect but no arrest. Liang, 45, works in evidence collection and has not been involved in Htwe’s case, but said he trusted the detectives who are handling it.

“There’s more than 8 million people in New York City,” he said. “They’re not going to find everybody.”

The lack of resolution has made Hein and his father anxious that the same person will hurt someone else, that Htwe’s death will have changed nothing. They also worry about running into the suspect. Their fear of public places has only amplified.

But Hein has no plans to leave with his father. He has been enamored of America ever since he was a boy and relatives visited Myanmar in Nike sneakers and crisp Nautica shirts. “Even the smell of their laundry detergent was so good,” he remembered. He plans to graduate next spring and has seen for himself the vast difference in the quality of education and job opportunities available in his new home.

It is a broken adaptation of the success he had envisioned. Who could have foreseen such sorrow? Perhaps it will be a lonely, hollow existence.

But he cannot shake the feeling that a young man like him could still rise here, could still forge a future in which he supports his father from afar and pays tribute to his mother’s hopes.

Even on his own, he could shape a version of the kind of American life they all once dreamed together.

© 2021 The New York Times Company

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

房地产泡沫是什么?

 其实我挺喜欢这个问题的,因为我们走的这条路很多国家也这样走过,房地产是新兴发展中国家所必须面临的问题。

人口密集的东区地区被世人比喻为“地狱”模式,二战后美国与西欧进入了天堂模式,“人人大皮卡,家家大别墅”的生活从电视剧上也能反应出来。

而东亚则出现人口爆炸,因而导致的资源匮乏让东亚人民生来就产生焦虑,辛辛苦苦奋斗一生换来的跃层跃迁带不给他们足够的幸福和满足感,反而产生为子孙的未来的担忧感。

在中国,房子捆绑了太多的东西:教育、医疗、养老等等,没有房子,在一定程度上就代表没有未来,有了房子似乎过一个好日子才成为可能。

房地产的热度喧嚣了近二三十年,网络上一如既往地唱空或者唱衰,但房价却不受这些喧嚣声的影响,固执地继续往上涨个不停,但它真能够一直涨个不停吗?

凡事都是有极限的,自从2008年经济危机后全球就开始了吹泡沫的时代,美股,中房,欧债的发展像似乎都没有尽头一般,但我们都清楚一件事:事物的发展是依据特定规律的,没有任何事物能够违背这些规律。

来谈谈现在为什么很多人说房地产是泡沫吧。

我们都知道房子的建筑成本是很低的,那么他的实际价值在哪里呢?最近知乎上“青山布衣”关于房子剪刀差剥削居民剩余价值的言论火遍全网,我十分佩服他的视角,确实给了我的新的思路和方向,那么我就换一个视角来说说房地产泡沫吧。

首先我们要理解“杠杆”这个概念,杠杆来源于阿基米德那一句流传千古的名言:给我一个杠杆,我将撬动整个地球。

从字面意思上看就是以小博大,用极少的力去撬动更大的物品。

在投资领域中,这个概念的含义就是拿借来的钱去投资,而这种配资措施,能够极大放大原有的收益率。

今天就拿戚大妈“刚需买房”跟夏大娘“投机炒房”两者来说明这个事情吧:

戚大妈首付买房:

以大妈为例,比如说戚大妈斜挎腰包,热衷买房,但她苦于手上钱着实不多,大概只有100W,买不到武汉那么贵的房子,但戚大妈天资过人,坚信武汉房价必然要涨,于是找到夏大娘借了100W,成功以200W上车在武汉买了一套房子,随后三个月,武汉房子暴涨20%,等于说戚大妈就从这笔交易中赚到了40W,但注意,戚大妈原先付出的只是100W,所以房价暴涨的20%对于戚大妈来说就等于赚了40%,戚大妈威武。

而在这个过程中,戚大妈问夏大娘借了100W,算上她原有100W的资金,戚大妈用了100W的资金撬动了200W的房产,这个就是2倍杠杆。

当然对社会上来讲,戚大妈们借钱往往是从银行借的,因为不是所有戚大妈都能找到夏大娘借来钱。这种拿100W买房,同时借100W就是5成首付买房(2倍杠杆),而如果戚大妈这时候没有100w,而是只拿50W去买房,这个时候相当于戚大妈只花了50W买了价值200W的房子,这个就是4倍杠杆,而这时候200W房子如果涨20%等于什么呢?就等于戚大妈拿原有50w已经赚了40W,这就是说戚大妈已经赚了80%了。

所以对于绝大部分购房者来说,在预计房价一定上涨的时候,首付比例越低越好,这意味着你拿更少的资金去撬动了更大价值的房子,而在房子上涨的时候,你首付比例越低就意味着你收益率越高。

夏大娘投机炒房:


以夏大娘为代表的炒房客就是这些把杠杆运用到极致的群体了。

和戚大妈这种只是玩这种低首付购房拿常规杠杆的玩家相比,夏大娘无疑是真正的高玩,因为这个时候夏大娘已经明白如何把杠杆率拉到最大了。

那就是继续扩大杠杆,夏大娘按照戚大妈用低首付买了这些房子,然后疯狂再抵押再买房。说实话房产抵押一般是不能再拿来买房了,但是规定归规定,现实还是现实的,就跟我说的那样,中央本意是把钱给到中小企业,但实际都流到深圳房子上了。

然后在这个过程中,夏大娘低首付买完房子,在外面找到银行或者找到私人继续抵押,然后再贷来这么多钱,虽然绝大部分时候她只能贷回来大概75%,但是最终她可以继续拿这些钱去买房。

理论上讲,如果夏大娘能够抵押到100%的款子的话,她甚至一个人就能把所有房子就买光,然后这个杠杆倍数达到了多少倍呢?可能会是几十倍甚至上百倍。

但这就跟我说的那样,市面的房子数量是一定的,如果大家都按照戚大妈那样去玩,也就是拿现在的钱去买未来的房子其实还是能理解的,因为人家戚大妈也算是先享受后付钱。

但夏大娘这样的就是坑爹了,因为夏大娘这样的操作她就是只拿了这么点钱就买下来了市面上绝大部分的房子,然后她买了,别人就别想了。

其实如果大家都正常买房不把房子当成投机工具,人人都能住上大房子的。

但是事实上呢,现实就是现实,现在的房子就是大家都把它当成某种投机工具罢了。

到现在为止我们看懂了这个概念后,正式进入房地产泡沫:

现在社会出现了一个很奇怪情况:一说资产成千上万,一说现金万把块都拿不出来。

我们来说说那个人均百万的事情的吧:以央行调查统计司城镇居民家庭资产负债调查课题组公布的《2019年家庭财产调查报告》来说吧,虽然这个课题被人吐槽的已经是体无完肤了,但还是能反映一些问题的:

一、户均平均资产289万
二、住房自有率96%
三、房产占资产比例超过70%
四、负债参与度超过70%
五、房贷占所有贷款比例75%

那么我们先看这些数据,很明显就能显示出大部分人的资产都在房子上了,而且不好意思的是这些资产还是靠贷款买来的。

不同于股票,因为房子的流动性低的原因,房子天然容易形成死多情况,而且很多人有一个很奇怪的想法:卖房子就等于败家。

这就直接导致了我从来不敢教唆人家卖房,怕了怕了。

但说实话,绝大多数人买房的时候就是奔着投资去的,但又在卖房的时候墨守成规。

这本身的逻辑就是滑稽而且可笑的。

落袋为安才是真正的收益,绝大多数的房子价值只是纸面上的。

不要看这些悬在空中的东西,只有实实在在落在手里能换取资源的才有意义。

我来讲讲为什么吧。

因为房地产市场并不是一个充分流动的市场,大部分人买了房子之后是不会选择卖的,于是就变成了天然死多,而这样的话很容易就被少数人操盘了。

就比如说我做了这张图,每个人都有:

但是注意一下,这个时候市面上的钱总归是4W,房子价格是4w,这是很实在的。

而这个时候小E出现了,他直接把单价开到了4000,但他只买了一套。

神奇的事情发生了,市面小E现金减少4000,小A现金增加了4000,但是其余BCD的资产凭空因为小E买了一套房多了整整10000,但现在市场其实算上小E进来带来的10000总归有多少钱呢?

50000 但是市场上房子的价值已经到达了多少了?80000

这也就意味着,如果没有新的资金,按照新的价格来卖房子,总有一些人是会亏死的。

但现实生活中其实不是这样的,我们每年都会新发一些货币,所以这个资金量是会扩大的,但是这个资金量能跟上房价的涨幅嘛?就算能,新进入市场的人还有钱吗?

这个时候小F进来了,也带了10000,但是现在房子直接涨到了20000,小F没办法去借钱买了房子,然后这时候神奇的事情又发生了,总共房地产上的资金变成了多少?

60000,但这个时候资产价值到多少了呢?400000

意思就是说明明市场上就这么点钱,但是市场资产已经变成了400000,按照现在价格20000一套来说,除非再来一个小G买这些房子,否则这个时候这些房子根本就卖不出这些钱,那么这个时候谁赚了,谁亏了?

小A赚了,因为他拿走了市场上绝大部分的现金,他就算那剩下的3套房子跌成负数,他也比之前那2w净资产(其中包含着1w现金)多了,他是赢家了。

但是这个过程中,E,F作为后入市场者,他们全亏了,关键是谁亏的最多,毫无疑问就是小F亏得最多。

这就是房地产泡沫的由来,目前中国市场经历了几十年的印钞,流通在市场的钱比以前确实已经变多了,但这些钱由于无处可去的原因最终纷纷流入房地产的同时也把房地产抬到一个很高的地步,而我举的例子还都是全款买房的例子,对于贷款买房情况更是糟糕的,这就意味着后入者拿的钱完全都是从银行借来的那些先入者的钱。

这就意味着市场上钱增长的很缓慢,但是资产价格已经增加了很高的一个水平了。

这个游戏其实是没有错的,股票也是这个游戏,决定这些房子价值的其实本质就是那些钢筋水泥以及所在城市区位优势的需求而不在炒作,而到现在游戏的关键根本不在于先入者了,因为那些最早的先入者不论如何都不会亏本,但对每一个后入者来说,他们一步步接盘了最高的房价。

但我们都明白,社会的资金往往都是聚集在上层社会的,底层人民的承受压力总归是有限的,六个钱包已经是快到顶点了,但如果六个钱包还不够的话,大不了就不买了呗。

这个房地产游戏里所有的聪明人都知道这个游戏的本质,他们是不会承担最后房地产雪崩的代价的,他们会抢在没有人进入市场前把他们拥有的所有资产全部变卖出去换成现金,然后市场最终会发生一件事,房子跌了。

房子跌的直接后果会是什么?就像是前一段美股熔断一样,疯狂往下跌,根本不讲理,最后跌破它原有的价值,在这个过程中,所有人想要的都是现金。

因为房子给你换不来实实在在的物资,尤其是在社会危难的时候,如果你手里没有足够的现金流,你根本换不来所需的一切物资。

这个时候你只能变卖原有的资产,但少数的人变卖根本不影响大局,但是如果这些变卖的人多了的话,大家就会疯狂开始变卖了。

因为绝大多数的人买房都是分期付款,这就意味他们加了很高的杠杆,他们在享受了这些高收益的同时也承担着相应的风险,假设他们都是两成首付,那么当房子跌下去20%的时候,他们就亏完了,但他们还得还银行的钱,这也就是为什么日本房地产泡沫后职业人背上沉重负债的原因,同时这一背就是30年。

这就是房地产泡沫,如果有机会的话,我想着可以就这个东西做一个拓展,给大家再详细讲讲相关的泡沫形成和破灭。

房地产那句话是没错的,长期看人口,短期看政策。

中国房地产神话的年代已经快过去了,它或许还能有一波的上涨,但相信我,它不会再继续往上疯狂涨了,泡沫形成的越大,戳破之后伤害的永远是最后上车的那些人。

陈旧的泡沫终会破碎,与其去留恋最后的辉煌,不如沉下心来想想下一个泡沫在哪里。

我一直说:历史的见证人不重要,历史的受益者才重要,但无论如何,我们都最好不要当历史代价的承担者。

编辑于 2020-05-01

刺破房地产泡沫会造成经济危机吗?

 转自吴敬琏主编的《比较》杂志公众号:比较 

 
今年的房地产“去库存”演变成了“民怨沸腾”的房价暴涨,加剧了房地产市场的“泡沫化”。《比较》第75辑曾发表了刘遵义教授的文章,讨论刺破房地产泡沫是否会危及经济。此文放在两年后的当下,更具现实意义。刘遵义在文章中指出,当前房地产市场明显供过于求,但价格依然居高不下,是因为房地产商和地方政府等既得利益者,以刺破房价将危及经济为由,阻碍房价下调。
 
针对这一论点,刘遵义分析了刺破房地产泡沫对宏观经济的影响,他认为刺破房价泡沫对虽然对就业、GDP和金融体系会有负面影响,但这些影响都在可控范围之内。同时,针对刺破房价泡沫对自住房房主的财富影响,他提出了抵押贷款再融资的建议,并用案例进行了详细的数字说明。这也体现了他长期以来作为政策建议者对细节和政策可行性的特别关注。

文/刘遵义
 
引言
 
越来越多的证据表明,中国几乎所有大小城市的住宅都存在显著的超额供给。住宅的实际用电量数据表明,在很多城市,已出售(非开发商所有)但未入住的住宅占住宅总量的比率至少达25%。如果再加上开发商持有的未出售(因而未入住)住宅,一些城市的空置率甚至高达40%。显然,在一些城市很多年内不应再新建住宅,当然住宅也不应保持在当前的价格水平上,这是大多数本城居民无力承担的。继续建造居民无力承担而攻击大量过剩的住宅完全是对社会资源的浪费。
 
面对如此庞大的超额供给,中国的房价为什么没有下降,或者说没有较快下降呢?为什么市场没有像十八届三中全会决议中提倡的那样发挥决定性作用呢?这说明有很多不同的强大利益集团支持房地产价格保持在目前的水平上,但支持的原因各不相同,下面将会讨论。然而是否每个原因都与中国社会整体的最大利益相一致,这是值得商榷的。
 
反对刺破房地产泡沫的理由
 
尽管几乎所有人都意识到当前的房价水平不可持续,那么,是什么原因使房地产泡沫保留至今呢?首先,地方政府最重要的财政收入来源就是他们所控制的土地,因此,他们想让土地价格处于高位并不断上涨。地方土地价格要保持高位并不断上涨,当地的房地产价格就必须保持高位并不断上涨,这转而依赖于当地保持高位并不断上涨的对住宅的需求。这也是为什么引入小额房产税会受到地方政府大力阻挠的原因,尽管长期来看他们可能是该税种的受益者。他们害怕引入房产税在短期内会对当地房地产(特别是住宅)的需求造成负面影响。地方政府通过想方设法抬高房地产价格,包括保持可用于新开发的地块的高价,或限制向市场提供土地,或劝阻开发商降价,更重要的是,通过利用政府在当地银行系统的影响力确保银行继续向房地产开发商提供贷款。现在刺破房地产泡沫就会剥夺地方政府最重要的收入来源,那些在地方政府心目中最有可能带动当地GDP和就业的经济活动就会停滞。
 
其次,房地产开发商也不想让他们的产品价格下降,这将直接影响他们的收入和利润。只要能够获得贷款,即使高达20%的年利率,他们也会选择待价而沽,而不会降价。不必用全额现款购买土地的开发商或许能够坚持更长时间。为了不降价,房地产开发商给出了荒诞不经的理由:如果他们的新楼盘降价,那些购买旧楼盘的消费者会要求退款,或至少要求返还价差。这个理由完全站不住脚:照此逻辑,所有商品和服务以及股票和债券的价格都不能下降,因为先前的购买者会要求返还差价。如此一来,市场上就不会有任何灵活的价格下降。另外,这也提出了一个问题,当商品和服务的价格上涨时,其供给者是否有权向之前的消费者索取差价。
 
一个明显的事实是,很多城市的住宅需求不可能随时快速上升。住宅的过剩供给在很长一段时间内不会消失。因此,房地产开发商堆积越来越多的债务只会令问题的最终解决变得更加困难和痛苦,不仅对开发商,对贷款方和最终的购房者也一样。开发商如果想在房地产周期中存活下来,眼下需要的不是更多的债务,而是更多的资本。
 
另一个被提出来解决住宅供给过剩的想法是加快城镇化步伐,吸引居住在农村地区的居民迁入城镇并入住那些空置住房。然而,除非这些新的城镇居民有能够产生稳定收入的职业,否则他们进城会带来更多的问题。
 
现在刺破房地产泡沫可能会导致一些开发商破产,特别是小开发商,事实上,这一结果迟早会发生,因为很多城市的房地产市场存在庞大的过剩供给。此外,没有人能期望房地产开发商返还价差。
 
再次,银行和金融机构也不想看到房地产价格下降,这将会降低未偿贷款的抵押房产的价值,甚至可能使之低于贷款本身。这意味着,贷款银行可能不得不提高其贷款损失的准备金,并可能需要增加新的资本。这也意味着,借款方手上会有“负资产”,这可能会导致贷款违约进而提高不良贷款的绝对值和比例。此外,即使银行和金融机构可以成功收回违约借款人作为抵押品的房产,并在市场上成功拍卖,他们也将遭受一笔损失,该损失相当于抵押品市场价值和未偿贷款额之间的差额。如果房地产价格下跌幅度足够大,可能会造成房地产贷款的大面积违约,那些向开发商和房主集中发放贷款的银行和金融机构的清偿力和生存能力将受到影响。因此,刺破房地产泡沫必须谨防整个金融体系的稳定性受到影响。最好的情况就是将房地产抵押贷款从贷款银行和金融机构的资产负债表中剥离出来。
 
最后,现在的房主和已经向开发商预付房款的未来房主,可能会担心房地产价格明显下降给自己带来“负资产”。他们的财富会减少,由于负的财富效应,这可能会导致消费降低。然而,如果一个房主只拥有自住房,这一效应基本上存在。不管自住房的价格上升还是下降,自住房房主的效用是不变的——房子还是同一所房子。自住房房主的住房消费支出的估算值变化了,但房主的净福利保持不变。因此,自住房房主的财富效应可能很小。对出于投机目的拥有多套房子的房主,财富效应可能会大一些。然而,现在不刺破房地产泡沫任由其变大,当它不可避免地破裂时会给每个人带来更大的经济损失。对于中低收入的自住房房主,住房很可能是他(她)唯一最值钱的资产。这些房主在经受价格冲击时应该接受一定程度的援助。
 
当下住宅房地产价格高、空置率高的情况显然是不可持续的。试图抬高住宅房地产价格会带来道德风险,这会使开发商和投资者确信住宅地产是单向的、没有风险的投机。此外,如果现在不挤出泡沫中的空气,住宅房地产的高价至少还会持续一段时间,这会吸引房主们进行更多的新投资,致使价格泡沫越吹越大。开发商不得不为现有贷款支付极高的利率,因而背负更多的债务,他们不得不持续支付的高利率会很快侵蚀他们所持有的资产净值。当开发商需要延期归还贷款时,贷款银行和金融机构就会产生越来越多的不良贷款,即使它们不再向购房者提供新的贷款。当泡沫不可避免地破裂时,一次更大的金融危机会接踵而来。越早应对住宅房地产的问题,就越容易解决它。所以,必须允许房地产价格泡沫破裂,但要以一种不过度伤害房主且不会令银行和金融机构遭受过度破坏的可控方式。
 
刺破房地产泡沫对宏观经济的影响
 
如果房地产泡沫被刺破,将会对整个经济造成怎样的影响?首先,对实际GDP增长率的影响其实是相当小的。正如房地产价格的上升不会增加实际GDP和就业本身一样,房地产价格的下降就其本身而言也不会减少实际GDP和就业。然而,房地产开发商和所有者的财富会下降。这可能会造成总体消费的下降,这就是所谓的财富效应。有关财富效应大小的经验证据并不充分,而且严格依赖于财富分配——财富分配越不平等,财富效应就越小。总之,财富效应对中国的自住房房主来说并不会太大。
 
当然,如果房地产泡沫破裂,开发商会停止进一步的开发,这会给当地的GDP和就业带来负面影响,但是,鉴于中国几乎所有城市都出现了大量的过剩住宅,这正是应该做的。中央政府此时最不应该做的就是鼓励开发商开发更多的住宅,非常廉价的住房可能是例外。实际上,一个可能不错的想法是,收紧开发商可用的信贷迫使房地产价格下跌至更合理的水平。中国经济负担不起新一轮的房地产扩张潮。
 
第二,房地产泡沫破裂会导致部分开发商和抵押贷款房主的贷款违约。贷款银行和金融机构会发现它们的房地产贷款抵押不足,不良贷款的数额和比例上升。它们需要提留更多的损失准备金,或者增加资本或者缩减资产,以满足资本充足率要求。然而当所有泡沫最终破裂时,这也一定会发生。不过香港和台湾的经验(例如,1997—1998年东亚金融危机期间)表明,自住房抵押贷款的违约率非常低,因此,完全有可能让贷款方和借款人达成适当的再融资方案。另外抵押不足的贷款可以被出售。一旦贷款银行和金融机构的资产负债表得到清理,它们就有能力为中小企业等值得支持的借款人提供贷款,目前,房地产贷款“挤出”了中小企业贷款。
 
第三,房主会因泡沫破裂遭受明显的损失,有些是变现的有些是未变现的。这些损失会影响他们的消费和投资行为。然而,中央政府的当务之急应该是,确保自住房房主不出现违约和不被贷款人止赎,能够继续住在自己的房子里,并尽可能以不引发道德风险且财政上负责任的方式来补偿自住房房主的损失。
 
关于自住房房主抵押贷款再融资的一个建议
应该把重点放在帮助房主上,特别是自住房房主而不是投机者,在刺破房地产泡沫时,他们的财富受到破坏。很多人最终持有负资产,即他们的房产所背负的债务高于其市场价值。然而,通过帮助房主,贷款银行和金融机构(包括住房公积金)也会因手中的不良贷款较少而受益。
 
基本的思路是,政策性银行以较低固定利率的长期抵押贷款为自住房房主提供再融资,从而将不良贷款从原来的贷款银行和金融机构的资产负债表中剥离出来。这通常有助于降低房主持续的经济负担,为持有负资产的房主提供一种减少负资产的方式。为降低部分银行和金融机构的道德风险,它们必须持有5%的新增贷款直至到期,并对未来任何贷款损失的前5%负责。基于自住房的要求,每位房主只可以进行一次再融资,即使他们拥有多套住房。另外,这类再融资有最大额的约束,因为目标受益者为中低收入房主。
 
我们首先考虑没有负资产的房主,因此只有房产价值的减值。抵押品本身对贷款银行来说依然是足值的。像国家开发银行这样的政策性银行将贷款银行和金融机构买入合格的自住房抵押贷款,并以较低的固定利率(例如说以4.5%而不是6.5%的年利率)和长期(比如说从15年到35年)的贷款对其再融资。由于低息和长期,就现值而言,再融资相当于对借款人的补助和单方面的转移支付。这有助于缓冲房地产价格下跌给借款人带来的冲击。另外,通过再融资,借款人每月的现金流将会显著增加,还本付息后可能会剩下更多的钱用于增加当前消费。从政策性银行的角度来看,它能以准主权债的利率(比如4%的年利率)融资,即使购入这些再融资贷款也可以有一个正的利差。因此,并不需要财政补贴。
 
我们来考虑一个具体的例子。假设一套自住房买入时的价格为150万元,合适的分期偿付抵押贷款额为100万元(价值的66.67%为贷款)。最初的抵押贷款固定利率为6.5%,期限为15年,则月付款额为8711.07元。如果这笔贷款能够再融资为4.5%的固定利率和35年的期限,月付款额就降为4732.57元,这相当于在前15年房主月付款额减少了(也就是月现金流的增加)3978.50元。按照7.5%的贴现率折为现值,对抵押贷款的再融资最终使借款房主获益237784.69元。
 
因此,如果房产价格下跌30%至105万元,这套住房的市场价值依然超过未偿贷款额。再融资相当于对借款房主一次性拨款237784.69元。房主的净损失总额(未变现的)等于212215.31元(1,500,000 - 1,050,000 - 237,784.69),相当于最初买入价的14.15%。因此,借款房主的净损失通过再融资方式被有效减少了一半以上。
 
对于持有负资产的自住房房主,即未偿付抵押贷款额超过房产的市场价值,贷款方就存在抵押品不足额的问题。如果它们取消抵押品赎回权,并将房产放到市场上出售,则需要承担一笔相当于抵押品不足额的损失。因此任何能够让它们减少损失的处理方式都会大受贷款方欢迎。这里建议让最初贷款方吸收一半的负资产值。这是因为他们首先犯错发放了过多的原始贷款,因此应该要求他们分担解决问题的成本。如果允许他们不受惩罚地逃避问题,将引发道德风险,将来这类错误还会不断重演。尽管贷款银行要吸收一半的负资产,该方案仍然有其优势,因为银行不用承担全部损失。此外,它会把再融资的抵押贷款卖给政策性银行,除了前5%的损失外,其他损失都会从它的资产负债表中剥离。它将有一个清洁的资产负债表用于支持其他贷款。
 
与此同时,借款人将得到本金少、利率低、期限长的再融资贷款,其经济负担就会减轻。他实际上会从再融资中获益,尽管他可能仍有负资产,但他的现金流明显增加。他由此避免了可能的违约,并能像以前一样继续住在同一所住宅里。
 
我们再考虑一个具体的例子。假设住房的市场价格下降至75万元,跌幅为50%,因此借款房主有25万元的负资产(贷款银行有等额的抵押品不足额)。贷款银行被要求吸收50%的抵押品不足额,即12.5万元,因此未偿付的抵押贷款净额为87.5万元。如果该款项以4.5%的固定利率和35年的期限进行再融资,月付款额就会降至4141元,相当于房主在前15年每月少支付了(也就是月现金流的增加)4570.07元。按照7.5%的贴现率折为现值,未偿贷款本金的减少和对抵押贷款的再融资最终使借款房主获益325523.27元。这相当于对借款房主一次性拨款325523.27元。房主的净损失总额(未变现的)等于424476.73元(1 500000 - 750000 - 325523.27),相当于最初买入价的28.3%。因此,借款房主的净损失通过初始贷款银行的债务减计和再融资被有效减少了43.4%。虽然房主在房产净值回升之前依然持有负资产,但可以避免其房产被止赎,同时现金流显著增加使其可以如愿增加消费。
 
初始贷款银行会有怎样的收益呢?它可以通过向政策性银行出售抵押不足的贷款来剥离不良资产。另外,银行可以作为政策性银行再融资贷款的服务机构收取服务费,而不必占用银行自身的资本。假设贷款银行每年对再融资贷款收取20个基点的服务费,35年后,它会获益7%,超过了它必须持有的5%的新增贷款。此外,银行还可以通过它拥有新贷款的5%,从获得借款人支付的总利息的5%。
 
配套措施
 
刺破房地产泡沫时,应该采取配套措施以提振房地产市场低迷波及到的建筑和建材部门的不景气。可以建造公共基础设施,比如公交系统、高铁、中小学、专科院校、大学、医院以及环境治理、保护和恢复工程。也可以推进和资助教育、医疗及养老等公共消费。然而,建造更多高价住宅完全没有意义——唯一该建的房子是廉价房。
为区分自住房和非自住房,有必要制定并实施产权和授信实名制,以确保没有人能够欺诈或反复利用再融资政策。另外,应该实行全国性的地籍调查,并为房地产制定全国性的所有权集中登记系统,防止欺骗行为。
 
住宅房地产业的一些规则需要改革。例如,应该允许预付款房主在银行和金融机构设立第三方托管账户。房地产开发商只有按期建成住房并交付使用许可证才能从第三方托管账户中提取房款。预付款房主自己也不能从第三方托管账户中提走房款,除非开发商拖延完工及交付房产的日期。这样的安排可以消除很多房地产买卖中的风险和可能的纠纷。有了预付款房主的第三方托管账户,银行可能愿意为有良好记录且经验丰富的开发商提供建设融资。
 
政策性银行能够以准主权债券利率融资,它可以发行35年期固定年利率为4%的债券。因此,它可以从银行和金融机构买入合格的再融资抵押贷款,支付服务费后依然有微小的利差来覆盖成本,不需要中央政府提供财政补贴。这些长期债券的潜在购买者包括国内外的国家级和省级的社会保障基金、养老基金和慈善基金。
 
当银行和金融机构出售了再融资住房抵押贷款后,就可以有新的贷款能力以为其他部门的活动融资,包括被房地产部门挤出的借款者。这有助于增加中对小企业的信贷供给。
 
结束语
 
建议在中国一个住房空置率较高的城市进行试点,允许房地产价格根据当地市场情况进行调整。运用再融资的备选方案帮助中低收入的自住房房主。该方案还有助于降低当地的收入和财富分配不平等程度。 这不仅能使中低收入房主在房地产泡沫破裂中幸存,也可以增加他们的当期消费。
 
然而,实行这一试点方案的最佳时机是房地产价格明显下跌的同时或者稍后,而不是之前。如果这一方案在当地房地产价格下跌之前实行,实际上可能会导致更大的房地产泡沫,由于可以获得低息长期的住房抵押贷款,潜在的借款人的购买力就会增加。
 
来源:比较;作者:刘遵义、香港中文大学校长、斯坦福大学国际研究所、胡佛研究中心荣誉高级研究员。

Sunday, September 12, 2021

President George W. Bush's speech at the Flight 93 memorial service

 Thank you very much. Laura and I are honored to be with you. Madam Vice President, Vice President Cheney. Governor Wolf, Secretary Haaland, and distinguished guests:

Twenty years ago, we all found -- in different ways, in different places, but all at the same moment -- that our lives would be changed forever. The world was loud with carnage and sirens, and then quiet with missing voices that would never be heard again. These lives remain precious to our country, and infinitely precious to many of you. Today we remember your loss, we share your sorrow, and we honor the men and women you have loved so long and so well.
For those too young to recall that clear September day, it is hard to describe the mix of feelings we experienced. There was horror at the scale -- there was horror at the scale of destruction, and awe at the bravery and kindness that rose to meet it. There was shock at the audacity -- audacity of evil -- and gratitude for the heroism and decency that opposed it. In the sacrifice of the first responders, in the mutual aid of strangers, in the solidarity of grief and grace, the actions of an enemy revealed the spirit of a people. And we were proud of our wounded nation.
    In these memories, the passengers and crew of Flight 93 must always have an honored place. Here the intended targets became the instruments of rescue. And many who are now alive owe a vast, unconscious debt to the defiance displayed in the skies above this field.
    It would be a mistake to idealize the experience of those terrible events. All that many people could initially see was the brute randomness of death. All that many could feel was unearned suffering. All that many could hear was God's terrible silence. There are many who still struggle with a lonely pain that cuts deep within.
      In those fateful hours, we learned other lessons as well. We saw that Americans were vulnerable, but not fragile -- that they possess a core of strength that survives the worst that life can bring. We learned that bravery is more common than we imagined, emerging with sudden splendor in the face of death. We vividly felt how every hour with our loved ones was a temporary and holy gift. And we found that even the longest days end.
      Many of us have tried to make spiritual sense of these events. There is no simple explanation for the mix of providence and human will that sets the direction of our lives. But comfort can come from a different sort of knowledge. After wandering long and lost in the dark, many have found they were actually walking, step by step, toward grace.
      As a nation, our adjustments have been profound. Many Americans struggled to understand why an enemy would hate us with such zeal. The security measures incorporated into our lives are both sources of comfort and reminders of our vulnerability. And we have seen growing evidence that the dangers to our country can come not only across borders, but from violence that gathers within. There is little cultural overlap between violent extremists abroad and violent extremists at home. But in their disdain for pluralism, in their disregard for human life, in their determination to defile national symbols, they are children of the same foul spirit. And it is our continuing duty to confront them.
      After 9/11, millions of brave Americans stepped forward and volunteered to serve in the Armed Forces. The military measures taken over the last 20 years to pursue dangers at their source have led to debate. But one thing is certain: We owe an assurance to all who have fought our nation's most recent battles. Let me speak directly to veterans and people in uniform: The cause you pursued at the call of duty is the noblest America has to offer. You have shielded your fellow citizens from danger. You have defended the beliefs of your country and advanced the rights of the downtrodden. You have been the face of hope and mercy in dark places. You have been a force for good in the world. Nothing that has followed -- nothing -- can tarnish your honor or diminish your accomplishments. To you, and to the honored dead, our country is forever grateful.
      In the weeks and months following the 9/11 attacks, I was proud to lead an amazing, resilient, united people. When it comes to the unity of America, those days seem distant from our own. A malign force seems at work in our common life that turns every disagreement into an argument, and every argument into a clash of cultures. So much of our politics has become a naked appeal to anger, fear, and resentment. That leaves us worried about our nation and our future together.
      I come without explanations or solutions. I can only tell you what I have seen.
      On America's day of trial and grief, I saw millions of people instinctively grab for a neighbor's hand and rally to the cause of one another. That is the America I know.
      At a time when religious bigotry might have flowed freely, I saw Americans reject prejudice and embrace people of Muslim faith. That is the nation I know.
      At a time when nativism could have stirred hatred and violence against people perceived as outsiders, I saw Americans reaffirm their welcome to immigrants and refugees. That is the nation I know.
      At a time when some viewed the rising generation as individualistic and decadent, I saw young people embrace an ethic of service and rise to selfless action. That is the nation I know.
      This is not mere nostalgia; it is the truest version of ourselves. It is what we have been -- and what we can be again.
      Twenty years ago, terrorists chose a random group of Americans, on a routine flight, to be collateral damage in a spectacular act of terror. The 33 passengers and 7 crew of Flight 93 could have been any group of citizens selected by fate. In a sense, they stood in for us all.
      The terrorists soon discovered that a random group of Americans is an exceptional group of people. Facing an impossible circumstance, they comforted their loved ones by phone, braced each other for action, and defeated the designs of evil.
        These Americans were brave, strong, and united in ways that shocked the terrorists -- but should not surprise any of us. This is the nation we know. And whenever we need hope and inspiration, we can look to the skies and remember.
        God bless.

          特朗普将如何输掉与中国的贸易战

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